01/09/2013 - #Syria -  Syrian Al Nusra fighters speak to Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera has had rare access to rebel fighters from the Nusra Front.
They have been launching an attack on Al Nyrab military airport near Aleppo.
The U.S. has blacklisted the group, calling it an al Qaeda-linked terrorist organisation.
Al Jazeera’s Hashem Ahelbarra has the story.

The US Finally Admits To Sending Heavy Weapons From Libya To #Syrian Rebels

09/12/12

The Obama administration has decided to launch a covert operation to send heavy weapons to Syrian rebels, Christina Lamb of The Sunday Times of London reports.

But that covert operation may have already taken place.

Diplomatic sources told the Sunday Times that the U.S. “bought weapons from the stockpiles of Libya’s former dictator Muammar Gaddafi.”

The heavy arms include mortars, rocket propelled grenades, anti-tank missiles and the controversial anti-aircraft heat-seeking SA-7 missiles, which are integral to countering Bashar Al-Assad’s bombing campaign.

The previously hidden CIA operation in Benghazi involved finding and repurchasing heavy weaponry looted from Libyan government arsenals, and in October we reported evidence indicating that U.S. agents — particularly murdered ambassador Chris Stevens — were at least aware of heavy weapons moving from Libya to jihadist Syrian rebels. 

From the Times report:

President Barack Obama authorized clandestine CIA support earlier this year and both the US and Britain have had special forces and intelligence officers on the ground for some time. They have helped with logistics and communications, but until now have refused to arm the Free Syrian Army.

There have been several possible SA-7 spottings in Syria dating as far back as early summer 2012, and there are indications that at least some of Gaddafi’s 20,000 portable heat-seeking missiles were shipped before now.

On Sept. 6 a Libyan ship “carrying the largest consignment of weapons” for Syrian rebels docked in southern Turkey. The ship’s captain was “a Libyan from Benghazi” who worked for the new Libyan government. The man who organized that shipment, Tripoli Military Council head Abdelhakim Belhadj, worked directly with Stevens during the Libyan revolution.

Stevens’ last meeting on Sept. 11 was with Turkish Consul General Ali Sait Akin, and a source told Fox News that Stevens was in Benghazi “to negotiate a weapons transfer in an effort to get SA-7 missiles out of the hands of Libya-based extremists.”

Last month The Wall Street Journal reported that the State Department presence in Benghazi “provided diplomatic cover” for the now-exposed CIA annex. It follows that the ”weapons transfer” that Stevens negotiated involved sending heavy weapons recovered by the CIA to the revolutionaries in Syria.

The newest report comes days before the U.S. is expected to recognize the newest Syrian coalition — and its Islamic-dominated-command — as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. The State Department has also indicated that it will soon name the opposition’s highly effective al-Nusra brigade a “terrorist organization” for its ties to Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).

Both of these stipulations, recognition of a unified opposition and creation of distance from extremist groups, are required in order for the Obama administration to openly acknowledge supporting Syrian rebels with weapons and supplies.

Jihadist-backed rebels take #Syrian army command post

09/12/12

BEIRUT |

(Reuters) - Syrian rebels backed by radical Islamists captured a northern regimental command center of President Bashar al-Assad’s army, activists said on Sunday, as Russia dismissed speculation that it is preparing for its ally’s possible exit from power.

Assad’s forces hammered rebel units on the outskirts of Damascus as they tried to drive back opposition fighters rebels seeking to advance toward the embattled leader’s seat of power.

Rebels have made a series of advances in recent weeks, partly due to help from radicals such as Jabhat al-Nusra, a group linked to Al Qaeda in Iraq which has been excluded from a newly-formed rebel military command.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Jabhat al-Nusra, which has called for the creation of an Islamic state in Syria, had participated in capturing the command center of the army’s 111th regiment in the north of the country. It said around five soldiers were captured, while the commanding officer and some 140 of his men fled to another army site nearby.

Russia, Syria’s main arms supplier, dismissed suggestions from observers that its support for Assad might be softening.

“We are not holding any talks on the fate of Assad,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and special U.N. envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi. “All attempts to present the situation differently are rather shady,” Itar-Tass news agency quoted him as saying.

Washington and its NATO allies, who have thrown their weight behind the opposition, are pressing for Assad’s departure to end the conflict in Syria, which has taken more than 40,000 lives.

Russia and China have blocked U.N. resolutions against Assad, saying they oppose foreign intervention in the conflict.

However, Western officials have recently cited intelligence reports that Assad may turn to chemical weapons. “We have seen enough evidence to know that they need a warning and they have received a warning and I hope they heed that,” British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Saturday.

Syria has repeatedly denied the charges and accused the West of creating pretexts for foreign intervention.

RADICALS ON THE RISE

Rebels have seized several military bases in recent weeks, although some activists on the ground say there is no sign they are on the verge of toppling Assad.

The rebels’ capture of the regimental command center in the Sheikh Suleiman region of Aleppo province, however, shows growing cooperation and even allegiance to radical Islamists who have proven to be some of the most effective fighters.

It is unclear how much Jabhat al-Nusra’s exclusion from the newly-formed rebel military command in Syria, an effort backed by Western, Turkish and Arab security officials, will affect efforts to unify rebel ranks and increase financial support.

Led by Brigadier Selim Idris, the new command structure itself is also Islamist-dominated, though it has the backing of many Western states which have expressed reluctance to support the rebels due to the presence of radicals.

Radical groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra are small compared with other factions but their influence has grown in recent months, partly due to their successful operations. Some residents and rebels also believe the hardliners are more disciplined than some rebels who have been accused of looting and kidnapping.

ROAD TO DAMASCUS?

Damascus has become a focal point of battles over the past week, as rebels effectively shut the international airport by clashing with Assad’s forces there. Foreign flights have been suspended and residents say the airport road is closed.

Rebels who have dubbed their campaign “Operation Opening the Road to Damascus”, uploaded video on Sunday that showed heavy gunbattles and explosions rocking several rural towns around the capital. The video also showed rebels firing a fully functioning tank which they had captured from the army.

But there is no clear winner yet in a battle where neither side seems to have advanced. The Syrian army has claimed many successes around the capital, airing footage on state television of soldiers raiding parts of the rebel stronghold of Deraya.

“Our noble forces in Deraya have destroyed some of the terrorist dens used by al Qaeda terrorists to store weapons and other criminal tools,” said a report on Syria TV, which usually refers to rebels as terrorists. “Many terrorists were killed.”

Syrian soldiers also freed an Iranian diplomat captured on the outskirts of Damascus on Saturday, according to Iran’s state-run Arabic news channel Al-Alam. Majeed Adeli, the cultural attaché at the Iranian embassy in Damascus, had been kidnapped by rebels in the Sayyida Zeinab suburb.

Rebels have been targeting Iranians in Syria, many of whom it accuses of belonging to Iranian security forces. Iran has been Assad’s main bankroller and backer in the region. Rebels are also holding 48 Iranians which Tehran says were pilgrims.

Al Qaeda-linked radicals help #Syrian rebels capture army base

09/12/12

Group linked to Al Qaeda in Iraq, Syrian rebels

capture northern outpost, capture 5 soldiers.


A Syrian opposition fighter keeps the queue in order as people line up to buy bread outside a bakery in the al-Fardos neighbourhood of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on December 9, 2012. (ODD ANDERSEN/AFP/Getty Images)

Radical Islamists linked to Al Qaeda in Iraq have helped rebels capture a Syrian army outpost, Reuters reported today.

One of the more prominent groups, Jabhat al-Nusra, bolstered Syrians fighting against President Bashar al-Assad’s troops in the north.

Together, they captured five soldiers from the 111th regiment, according to Reuters.

Jabhat al-Nusra wants an Islamic state inside Syria, the newswire said, and is operating inside Syria despite its exclusion from a rebel leadership group.

While rebels claim to be closing in on the capital Damascus, US and Russian politicians are meeting with UN peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi to discuss the 20-month Syrian civil war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said reports that his country is ready to soften its stance on Assad are wrong.

More from GlobalPost: Syrian rebels elect new command, target airport

After US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Lavrov and Brahimi late last week in Ireland, reports were that Russia has started to lose its patience with Assad.

That’s not true, Lavrov said, and Russia is only discussing Syria on the assurance a peace deal wouldn’t force him from power.

“We are not conducting any negotiations on the fate of Assad,” Lavrov said Sunday, according to The Associated Press.

“All attempts to portray things differently are unscrupulous, even for diplomats of those countries which are known to try to distort the facts in their favor.”

Also today, activists said nine Syrian judges and prosecutors from the city of Adlib defected.

They posted a video online and urged others to follow their lead, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told the AP.

#Syria trying to export its crisis to Jordan, Lebanon


Jordan’s announcement that it has foiled an al Qaeda plot to bomb the capital highlights the threat to Washington’s ally from Islamist fighters hardened by conflict in neighbouring Syria, and the danger of Damascus trying to export its crisis.

The kingdom is no stranger to turmoil. For decades it has navigated the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on its western border and more recently bloodshed in Iraq to the east, which spilled over to Jordan with hotel bombings in Amman seven years ago.

But the Syrian civil war could pose the gravest threat yet to Jordan’s pro-Western King Abdullah, whether or not rebel fighters succeed in toppling President Bashar al-Assad after 42 years of Assad family rule.

The overthrow of Assad by Sunni Muslim rebels could embolden hardline Sunni Islamists in Jordan, while a weakened but still fighting Assad may try to deflect pressure by spreading the conflict to his neighbours, Jordanian politicians say.

Mahmoud Kharabsheh, a prominent politician with an intelligence background, says Syria’s role in letting al Qaeda fighters head to Iraq after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion has reinforced fears that Damascus could try the same in Jordan.

“The Syrian regime will not leave a stone unturned to destabilise the kingdom. The Syrian regime is determined to export its crisis to neighbouring countries to … destabilise our security,” said Kharabsheh, a member of the outgoing Jordanian parliament.

At the height of the bloodshed in Iraq, Damascus emptied its prisons of many radical Islamists and let them cross the border to fight the Western forces. This allowed Assad’s secular government to get rid of domestic Islamist opponents, at least temporarily, and indirectly pin down forces of its U.S. enemies.

Those radicals have returned home to fight Assad, and have been joined by fellow Islamists from Jordan.

Kharabsheh said the Syrian government might again try to use its ideological opposite, al Qaeda, as it struggles for survival. “They are two imminent dangers and their interests could easily coincide to destabilise Jordan,” he said.

Scores of Syrians had been arrested in recent months after gathering information and acting as agents provocateurs in Jordan’s Zaatari refugee camp, which houses tens of thousands of Syrians who have fled their country, he added.

Then on Oct. 21, Jordan state TV said intelligence services had foiled the plot by an al Qaeda-linked cell to bomb shopping centres and assassinate Western diplomats in Amman, using weapons and explosives smuggled from Syria..

Although some expressed scepticism about the threat posed by 11 al Qaeda suspects who were arrested – including teenagers and young students – there is little dispute that the Syrian conflict has galvanised Jordan’s jihadists.

HISTORY OF ENMITY

Despite urging Assad to step down, Jordan has tried to accommodate the Syrian authorities, fearing any overt intervention would revive tensions with Damascus. That hostility reached a peak in 1981 when Syria was accused of being behind a failed assassination attempt on Jordan’s prime minister and Amman harboured the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Since the latest conflict broke out, Jordan has shown restraint in dealing with Syrian gun and mortar fire across its borders, with Amman trying to insulate itself from the military fallout, according to diplomats and politicians.

This contrasts with Turkey, whose forces have repeatedly fired on Syria since five of its civilians were killed early this month by shells and mortars from across the border.

But the combination of turmoil across Jordan’s northern border and growing demands for reform inside the Hashemite monarchy, inspired by uprisings across the Arab world, have left Amman particularly vulnerable.

One Western government official visiting the region last week compared Amman with Beirut, where a car bomb killed a prominent anti-Assad intelligence chief earlier this month and plunged the Lebanese into political crisis.

“I worry more about Jordan than Lebanon,” he said. “Lebanon has been through this before and has the coping mechanisms.”

ISLAMIST SLEEPER CELLS?

Jordanian analysts say Islamist groups are gaining ground among Syrian rebels, creating a new generation of battle- hardened jihadists like the “Arab Afghans” mujahideen who went toAfghanistan to fight Soviet troops in the 1980s and returned home to wage jihad against their pro-U.S. governments.

Political analyst Sami Zubaidi said jihadists who believe in waging holy war were sheltering among ultra-orthodox Salafi Islamists who support non-violent action. “There are sleeper cells in the jihadist Salafi groups in Jordan which did not find an arena inside Jordan and went to Syria,” he said.

“A lot of these jihadists go to Syria and get armed and develop their skills as though it was a training course before they return to Jordan armed to hit Jordanian targets,” he added.

Growing deprivation in impoverished areas such as the Jordanian city of Zarqa creates recruiting grounds for jihadists heading to Syria. Zarqa is the hometown of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, once head of al Qaeda in Iraq who is blamed for the 2005 Amman hotel bombings which killed more than 50 people.

Only this month, two Jordanian Salafists were killed in Syria’s southern city of Deraa, just across the Jordanian border, while battling Syrian troops. They were among at least 250 jihadists who are estimated to have crossed into Syria.

The longer that conflict in Syria continues, the more fighters may be drawn to the battlefield.

But for many in Jordan’s security establishment, the biggest threat comes from the mayhem that would result from the toppling of the Assad regime.

“This is what scares me; if the regime falls in Syria and radical Islamist groups become influential there, it will be easier for these extremist groups to work here in Jordan and destabilise the country,” said Hazem al-Awran, a former parliamentarian.

Reuters

US offers $12m reward for al-Qaeda financiers backing #Syrian extremists

19/10/12

The United States posted a reward of up to $12

million on Thursday for help in tracking down two

Iran-based al-Qaeda financial backers accused of

funneling money to extremists in Syria

Fadhli is also alleged to have raised money to fund the October 2002 attack on the French ship MV Limburg Photo: GETTY

The State Department said Muhsin al-Fadhli and his deputy Adel Radi Saqr al-Wahabi al-Harbi had helped “facilitate the movement of funds and operatives through Iran on behalf of the al-Qaeda terrorist network.”

“Al-Qaeda elements in Iran, led by Fadhli, are working to move fighters and money through Turkey to support al-Qaeda-affiliated elements in Syria,” the department said in a statement.

“Fadhli also is leveraging his extensive network of Kuwaiti jihadist donors to send money to Syria via Turkey.”

Fadhli, 31, was among the few al-Qaeda leaders who was given advance notice that the group planned to strike the United States on September 11, 2001.

He is also alleged to have raised money to fund the October 2002 attack on the French ship MV Limburg off the coast of Yemen in which one person was killed, and four crew members injured.

“Fadhli reportedly has replaced Ezedin Abdel Aziz Khalil (better known as Yasin al-Suri) as Al-Qaeda’s senior facilitator and financier in Iran,” the statement said, offering up to $7 million for information on his location.

Fadhli is on Saudi Arabia’s most wanted list after a series of al-Qaeda attacks in the Gulf kingdom.

Harbi, 25, a Saudi national, was put on the Saudi list in 2011 charged with traveling to Afghanistan to join al-Qaeda and providing Internet support to the group. The US is offering up to $5 million for his arrest.

The Treasury also slapped sanctions on Harbi, banning US nationals and companies from carrying out any transactions with him.

“Today’s action, which builds on our action from July 2011, further exposes Al-Qaeda’s critically important Iran-based funding and facilitation network,” said David Cohen, under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

“We will continue targeting this crucial source of Al-Qaeda’s funding and support, as well as highlight Iran’s ongoing complicity in this network’s operation,” he said.

Fadhli, who was born in Kuwait, is also wanted by Kuwaiti authorities after being convicted in his absence and sentenced to five years on charges of providing funding and training to terror groups in Afghanistan.

Source: AFP

#Syria, Assassination, defection could topple Assad: Carr

08/10/12

Foreign Minister Bob Carr says a major military defection and an assassination seem to be pre-conditions of movement towards peace in Syria.

Senator Carr says while there is nothing to suggest it is about to happen, the battle between president Bashar al-Assad’s regime and opposition fighters has become more even.

He has told the ABC’s Four Corners program it seems to be the pre-condition for movement towards peace.

“I think we’d know the conflict has evened up if there is a major defection from the Assad government, especially a defection that takes part of its armed forces with it,” he said.

“This sounds brutal and callous, perhaps an assassination combined with a major defection, taking a large part of its military, is what is required to get one; a ceasefire and two; political negotiations.

“I know of no intelligence data - none has flowed across my desk - that suggests this is about to happen but it would seem to be a pre-condition of movement towards what Kofi Annan said was essential and that is a ceasefire and two negotiations between all sides towards what was laid out at the Geneva conference in June.”

Senator Carr says Mr Assad’s military regime has not accommodated the desire for change among Syrians, which has resulted in the bloodshed.

“We’ve got nothing to do but trust the spirit of the Arab Spring,” he said.

“We do know there is a body of opinion in the Arab world running strongly that says ‘we do not want extremism, we want democracy denied to us for so long’.”

Senator Carr says it is unclear to what extent Islamic extremists like Al Qaeda are involved in the conflict.

Tens of thousands of people have fled Syria since an uprising against Mr Assad’s regime began more than 18 months ago.

Opposition activists estimate 30,000 people have been killed in the conflict which has developed into a full-scale civil war.

While opposition forces lack the strength to defeat the government forces outright, the military struggles to maintain control of many areas in the city - resulting in significant loss of life.

FORMER AMBASSADOR: #Syria Is ‘Spinning Out Of Control’ And The Turks Need Help

05/10/12

Michael Kelley

Immediately after Syrian mortars killed five civilians in a Turkish border town on October 3, former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Ross Wilson stated that the incident “added a new edge to the campaign [Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan’s Administration has been waging to convince its allies and friends that Syria is spinning out of control, increasingly threatening regional peace and stability, and warranting a firmer response.”

Turkey responded to Wednesday’s incident by shelling parts of Syria all night and passing a resolution that authorizes sending its military into Syria if necessary.

Wilson told Business Insider that he wasn’t surprised Turkey sent its neighbor “a strong statement that they’re not interested in seeing this happen in the future,” but noted that Turkey shouldn’t have to deal with the Syria problem alone—”NATO needs to do more to contain and isolate this problem as much as one can.”

“The way it’s seen in Turkey is that disorder [and] chaos are increasing weekly if not daily in Syria,” Wilson, who served in Ankara from 2005 to 2008, said. “They are extremely worried about what the medium-to-longer term future is. Turkey can defend itself in this kind of border incident. Larger scale things [are] something else altogether and Turkey is seeking help.”

According to Wilson, Turkey is primarily worried about three big issues:

1) Chemical weapons: “They seem dangerous enough to American national security officials, but to Turkey they’re literally right across the border. It’s not something far away that might come to bite at some point in the future. It’s a very immediate and very real threat.”

2) The rising al-Qaeda presence over the last six weeks: “To a certain extent, [Turkish leaders] know how to deal with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which was very much in the news two months ago operating in the far east of Syria. Al-Qaeda is a whole different set of problems and that alarms them.”

3) The implosion of the Syrian government, which would lead to “chaos all over the country, hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing for their lives and the implications of that for Turkey and the region as a whole.”

Wilson said that there are clear signs of increasing chaos: the Syrian government is losing parts of the country, senior military officers have defected, rebels have successfully attacked central government buildings and 90,000 Syrian refugees are currently living in Turkey.

“As far as Syria is concerned, clearly there needs to be some kind of transition [in the form of a interim government] there and it has to happen soon or the situation domestically is going to become something akin to that nightmare that the Turks are so concerned about,” Wilson said.

That nightmare scenario would involve a collapse of central and military authority combined with the “loss of control of these frightening weapons that Assad and his father developed over the course of many years.” The result would be “catastrophic flows of refugees [and] catastrophic numbers of people to feed and take care of medically” in addition to the destabilization of the entire region.

“It’s already an extremely volatile part of the world—it could get a lot moreso and a lot more dangerous,” Wilson said. “It could be very quickly or it could be sometime off in the future but it almost seems inevitable that some big change is going to happen in Syria.”

That’s why, Wilson told us, it is critical that NATO and it’s individual member states “make clear that’s [Turkey’s] security is an alliance concern” in addition to supporting “Jordan and … others who are affected by this instability that … ultimately may threaten the whole region.”

He said the benefit of doing so is two-fold: it’s a way to contain the instability while also ensuring that “NATO has a platform, i.e. Turkey, if and when at some point circumstances develop further in Syria in such a way that either intervention or some kind of operation on the edges of Syria or along its borders becomes necessary.”

Wilson noted that world leaders have been wise to resist direct intervention in Syria, but that doesn’t mean Turkey’s allies “should be passive with respect to the overall situation. That’s where I think NATO needs to pick up it’s game.”

When asked to speculate on what happens next, Wilson said that it’s “almost an impossible question to answer,” but did offer the basic scenario:

“At some point it’s likely that the [Syrian] government will either enter into some sort of transition on its own or it will collapse. Is that this winter? Is it later? I don’t know. I think it’s extremely difficult for Assad to put things back to the way they were, but when things will play our or exactly how I don’t know.”

One thing is certain: winter is coming. “It will be cold, people won’t have food and what is already a deeply suffering country will be suffering quite a bit more,” Wilson said.

#Syria, Jordan arrests Zarqawi nephew

26/09/12

AMMAN: A top Islamist lawyer said on Tuesday the nephew of slain Al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab Al Zarqawi was among six jihadists arrested in Jordan last week as they tried to cross into Syria.

“Jordanian border guards on Saturday arrested six mujahedeen, including Abu Asyad, the nephew of Zarqawi, as they attempted to go to Syria for jihad,” Musa Abdullat, a leading lawyer for Islamist groups, said.

Jordanian-born Zarqawi was killed in an air strike by the US military in Iraq in 2006.

“They are expected to be charged and jailed for between five and 15 years,” Abdullat said.

The government has said without elaborating that Jordanian border guards clashed at dawn on Saturday with armed men in a border area and arrested all of the gunmen.

“Around 100 mujahedeen have joined the Syrian (rebel) Tawhid Brigade. Six of them have been martyred,” Abdullat added.

At least 10 jihadists were arrested in Jordan when they tried enter Syria in April and June, according to Salafist leaders.

Jordan shares land borders with Iraq, Israel, Syria, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia. It has beefed up its security along the border with Syria, since uprising against the government erupted in mid-March last year.

Agence France-Presse
 
#Syria rebel officer offers $25 million bounty on Assad, ‘dead or alive’

18/09/12

Announcement by an unnamed officer with the FSA says money for the bounty had been set up with donations from anti-Assad business people.

A commander with the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) has offered a 25-million-dollar bounty for anyone who captures Syrian President Bashar Assad “alive or dead,” reported the Turkish news agency Anatolia on Tuesday.

The announcement by an unnamed commander with the FSA said the money for the bounty had been set up with donations from anti-Assad business people.

The reported bounty offer came as Western officials said Tuesday there was little doubt a growing number of foreign jihadi fighters are entering the fray in Syria, although it is far from clear whether any have direct links to Al Qaeda. But it is just one worry amongst many.

“This is not a situation where the US can do much to shape what happens,” says Ms Mona Yacoubian, a former State Department official and now fellow and Syria expert at the Stimson Centre. “There has always been a lot of caution within the Obama Administration on Syria and if anything things are getting more complicated.”

Working with Libya’s initially notoriously disorganized rebels, officials complained, was hard enough; but the opposition to Assad seems even more diffuse.

That makes policy-making much more complicated and supplying weapons, or even choosing who to talk to, more of a gamble.

“We badly need to identify some political and military leaders who can make clear that they seek a political settlement to bring all fighting to an end,” said one Western official on condition of anonymity. “Without that the bloodletting reinforces the worst aspects of sectarianism and makes a soft landing ever less likely.”

Western states have been on a concerted offensive to push opposition figures towards greater unity, facilitating meetings that range from foreign-based conferences to Internet chats and small border gatherings.

But, beyond pushing in humanitarian aid they fear there is a limited amount they can do to change the situation on the ground.

“It’s a very difficult situation, and the lack of coherence of the opposition is probably the biggest single challenge,” says Ms Melissa Dalton, a senior Pentagon adviser on Syria and the Middle East currently on sabbatical as a visiting fellow at the Centre for New American Security.

“Given everything that is at stake, the United States clearly cannot do nothing. But there are no good scenarios arising from this conflict, and so the most important strategy for the United States to pursue is mitigating the risks to its interests.”

That meant to prioritize tracking Syria’s chemical weapons, ensuring militant groups inspired by Al Qaida were unable to set up safe havens and preventing weapons from falling into the wrong hands, she said. It also meant avoiding doing anything to make matters worse.

Iraq reopens border to #Syria refugees, excludes young men

18/09/12

BAGHDAD, Sept 18 | Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:43am EDT

(Reuters) - Iraq reopened its border with Syria on Tuesday to receive refugees escaping violence, but refused entry to young men for security reasons, Iraqi officials said.

“They (the central government) fear that some of those young men could be members of al Qaeda or the Free Syrian Army,” a local government official in Iraq’s Anbar province said.

Al Qaim was closed at the end of August when Syrian forces backed by jets fought rebels for control of an airfield and military base near the Syrian border town of Albu Kamal, within metres of the crossing and on a major supply route from Iraq.

“The prime minister gave orders to receive 100 refugees daily and the priority is for women, children, elderly, wounded and sick people, but excluded young men,” al Qaim’s mayor Farhan Ftaikhan told Reuters by phone.

Ftaikhan said Iraqi authorities had set up refugee camp facilities with a capacity for five hundred families.

Al Qaim is already suffering spillover from the fighting in Syria and Syrian jets fly over Iraqi airspace almost daily to make bombing runs on rebel positions just inside Iraq.

Iraq’s government is struggling to overcome its own insurgency and legacy of sectarian violence. Baghdad says it has evidence Sunni Islamist fighters are crossing the porous border to fight against Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad.

“This is an unjust decision towards Syrian families. Some Syrian families reject leaving their young sons behind,” the Anbar province official said, declining to be named.

Most people in Albu Kamal have family in al Qaim and Anbar’s government has opposed the border closure from the start.

Syria’s 18-month-old revolt is focused for now on the capital Damascus and the port city of Aleppo, but fighting is also fierce in strategically important Albu Kamal.

Troubled Iraqi border town in eye of #Syrian storm

16/09/12

Iraqi town faces refugees, gun-runners, Syrian jets

* Syrians rely on Iraqi kin for help across border

* Baghdad government worries about insurgents returning

By Patrick Markey

AL QAIM, Iraq, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Syrian refugees squeeze against a closed gate at an Iraqi border post, reaching through its metal bars to clamour for water, and calling out to Iraqi cousins and brothers on the other side.

Yelling into their cellphones, more Syrians perch on top of the concrete walls that divide Iraq from Syria, waiting for Iraqis to unload trucks filled with boxes of cooking oil and bottled water and hoist them over the al Qaim checkpoint.

Close by, predominantly Sunni Syrian rebels are fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s forces over the town of Albu Kamal, bringing the war to al Qaim with refugees, Syrian jets and occasional rocket attacks.

Al Qaim, in the Sunni heartland of Anbar province, reflects the tricky balancing act Iraq’s Shi’ite leaders face in Syria, whose crisis is testing the Middle East’s sectarian divide.

Many Shi’ite politicians took refuge in Syria during the rule of Saddam Hussein, and Assad, who is Alawite, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam, is backed by Shi’ite Iran while Sunni power Saudi Arabia supports the rebels.

Iraq’s leaders dismiss claims they support Assad, but they also fear a nightmare scenario: his downfall brings a hostile Sunni Muslim regime to power and emboldens disenchanted Sunnis in Iraq’s own fragile sectarian mix.

In Anbar, where tribal ties are strong, discontent over Baghdad’s stance on the Syrian crisis is growing. Many have already chosen their side.

“When you have cousins here, it is a matter just of luck whether they are Iraqi or Syrian,” said Emad Hammoud, a government worker in al Qaim. “In Syria, it’s a fight of a government against its people, and we are with the people.”

Al Qaim and its neighbouring Syrian counterpart Albu Kamal are on a strategic supply route for smugglers, gun-runners and now insurgents aiming to join the rebellion.

Just a few years ago the traffic went the other way: Sunni Islamist bombers crossed into Iraq to fight against the American occupation and refugees fled to Syria to avoid sectarian slaughter.

Though still wary of Islamist insurgents, Baghdad’s Shi’ite-led central government initially opened the border to Syria’s refugees after the conflict started 18 months ago.

But Albu Kamal has since been overrun by anti-Assad Free Syrian Army rebels and the number of refugees has grown, prompting authorities to lock al Qaim’s crossing. Army brigades now reinforce the frontier, marked by 2-metre metal fence.

Iraqi residents send food, water and medical supplies to pass over the gate at al Qaim, where around 200 to 300 Syrian refugees arrive daily seeking shelter or supplies from relatives before heading back home.

“This is not help from the state, this is from clerics and from the people,” said one local Iraqi government official at the crossing, who was not authorised by Baghdad to speak publicly about the refugees.

TRICKY BALANCE

After Saddam fell in 2003, many members of his outlawed Baath party fled into Syria. Baghdad often criticised Damascus for sheltering al Qaeda, Sunni insurgents and former Baathists who used Syria as a haven to attack American troops in Iraq.

But Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who took refuge in Iran and Syria during Saddam’s era, has since developed a pragmatic relationship with Assad. Baghdad abstained in an Arab League vote to suspend Syria and resists calls for Arab sanctions, urging reforms instead.

In August last year he hosted Syrian ministers, calling Iraq and Syria “brother” nations.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari alluded to fears of what could follow if Assad is overthrown.

“The flow of refugees, the entrenchment of terrorist organisations, the veil of a fundamentalist regime, all this could impact us,” Zebari told Reuters. “We are trying to take a independent position. Based on our national interests… Things are not black and white.”

At tribal meetings across Anbar, talk is now of Syria’s crisis and how they can help their Sunni Syrian brethren.

Anbar’s tribes turned against al Qaeda to help U.S. forces in 2006. But since the rise of Iraq’s Shi’ite majority, many Sunnis say they are alienated. Local sheikhs feel sidelined by a prime minister who they say wants to consolidate Shi’ite power.

A fragile government amoung Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurdish parties has been mired in crisis as Sunnis accuse Maliki of reneging on power-sharing deals.

“Iraq will face a storm,” Sheikh Hatim Salaiman, chieftain of one of Anbar’s largest tribes told Reuters. “In a few months, Syria’s crisis will likely end. And what comes next will be difficult for Iraq.”

BORDER SPILLOVER

Al Qaim is already struggling with spillover from the fighting in Syria.

Syria military jets fly over Iraqi airspace almost daily to make bombing runs on rebel positions just over the border, al Qaim’s mayor Farhan Ftaikhan says, and most nearby Syrian border posts have been abandoned by Syrian forces.

Beyond the frontier, the main border checkpoint on the Syrian side sits empty.

On one wall, the Free Syrian Army flag, with its three red stars, is painted over a portrait of Assad’s late father, Hafez. Bullet holes cratering the wall partially obliterate his face.

Gunshots that pockmark the concrete wall of another border post are evidence of the more regular clashes between Iraqi border troops and gunmen on the Syrian side.

Earlier this month, Free Syrian Army rebels fired on Iraqi troops trying to stop four vehicles carrying weapons into Syria. Iraqi troops responded with mortar and canon fire, one Iraqi military official said.

For now, al Qaim’s mayor says, the border is closed for technical reasons, as local authorities wait to complete more camps with a capacity to deal with 10,000 refugees.

Outside the town, around 2,000 refugees who managed to cross the border before it was closed are housed in white tents. A similar number are put up with relatives or local residents.

The violence is growing. Three times now, Syrian rockets have landed on al Qaim, the most recently less than a fortnight ago, when three Katyushas hit a residential neighgbourhood, killing a small Iraqi girl and wounding some of her family.

It was unclear who fired them, the Syrian army or the rebels. But al Qaim residents know they will not be the last.

“I thought it was one of the Syrian planes we hear overhead. Then we heard the rocket coming at us,” said Firas Attallah, the girl’s father. “This is the price we pay, just for the help we are sending, for the food and medicine we send.”

Back #Syria rebels: Al Zawahri

14/09/12

DUBAI: Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahri has called on all Muslims to back the rebels in Syria, saying the overthrow of President Bashar Al Assad would bring them closer to the ultimate goal of defeating Israel, according to an audio recording posted on the Internet yesterday.

Speaking on the anniversary of the September 11 attacks, Zawahri criticised Muslim governments in the Middle East and in Asia for failing to pursue the cause of political Islam. He chastised the new leadership in Egypt in particular for sticking to its 1979 peace treaty with Israel and Pakistan, which he described as a “government for sale and an army for rent”.

The 2011 Arab Spring revolutions have redrawn the political landscape in the Middle East, bringing in Islamist governments in Tunisia and Egypt and increasing the influence of Islamist political groups throughout the region, which Western governments have watched with concern.

Zawahri said the United States was propping up Assad because it feared the rise of another Islamist regime to threaten its ally Israel.

“Supporting jihad in Syria to establish a Muslim state is a basic step towards Jerusalem, and thus America is giving the secular Baathist regime one chance after another for fear that a government is established in Syria that would threaten Israel,” he said.

More than 20,000 people have been killed in the 18-month uprising against Assad, who claims that his government is battling militants who want to set up an Islamist state. The protest started as a pro-democracy protest movement but has since turned into an armed conflict with sectarian aspects.

Zawahri, who took over as Al Qaeda chief after Osama bin Laden was killed last year, said “the Islamic nation” needed to focus on the goal of helping to “liberate Palestine” — a reference to Israel and the occupied territories where there are zones of Palestinian self-rule.

REUTERS

Zawahiri messages underline al Qaeda’s focus on Syria

13/09/12

By Paul Cruickshank and Tim Lister

(CNN) - The latest in a flurry of messages from al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri shows his growing interest in exploiting violence in Syria. In a 35-minute audio address posted on jihadist forums on Wednesday, Zawahiri claimed the United States was actually supporting the Assad regime to prevent an Islamist state from taking its place.

“Supporting jihad in Syria to establish a Muslim state is a basic step towards Jerusalem, and thus America is giving the secular Baathist regime one chance after another, for fear that a government is established in Syria that would threaten Israel,” Zawahiri said, according to a translation provided by the SITE Monitoring Service.

It is not the first time Zawahiri has cast a covetous eye over events in Syria.

In February, he used most of an address to try to graft al Qaeda onto the growing insurgency.

“Our courageous mujahideen heroes are becoming more firm, patient, resistant and brave every day, and they are waging the battle of glory and dignity against the sectarian secular regime,” he said.

“Establish a state that defends the Muslim countries, seeks to free the Golan, and continues Jihad until the flag of victory is raised above the usurped hills of al-Quds [mosque in Jerusalem],” Zawahiri added.

And he appealed to foreign fighters to converge on Syria, urging “every Muslim and every free honorable one in Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, to rise to help his brothers in Syria with all what he can,” according to a translation by the SITE Monitoring Service.

Zawahiri’s vision is, however, still a long way from fruition. To date, there are probably at most a few hundred committed al Qaeda fighters in Syria, a small fraction of the tens of thousands who have joined rebel ranks.

U.S. officials have downplayed al Qaeda’s presence in the country.

“I would put the numbers in the dozens to 100-plus. You know, we don’t have that much granularity that we can say with any certainty exactly how many are there,” Daniel Benjamin, the State Department coordinator for counterterrorism, told CNN last month.

Many analysts believe that Jabhat al Nusra, a group founded by Syrian jihadists in January 2012, is affiliated with al Qaeda in all but name. Though the group has not pledged loyalty to al Qaeda nor been recognized by Zawahiri, its propaganda is hostile to the West and non-Sunni groups. Al Nusra propagandists also appear to have received privileged access to password protected web forums used by al Qaeda and its affiliates. Al Nusra has also claimed responsibility for a significant number of suicide bombings, long the signature tactic of al Qaeda.

Noman Benotman, a former Libyan Jihadist now with the Quilliam Foundation in London, has been closely tracking Jihadists in Syria. He told CNN that al Nusra probably has several hundred mostly Syrian fighters, has developed a presence across Syria, and has emerged as one of the most effective groups in waging urban warfare.

Unlike other jihadist cells fighting in Syria, al Nusra has a strict vetting process for recruits and is focused on building an organized committee structure, Benotman told CNN. He also believes it is collaborating with al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), newly revived by growing sectarian fissures there. U.S. intelligence agencies began to detect the presence of AQI operatives in Syria earlier this year and believe they may have had a hand in a number of vehicle-borne bomb attacks against Syrian security services.

The growth of hardline Salafism in areas such as Deir Ezzor and Idlib in the last decade has provided both groups with a potential pool of recruits, according to Mohanad Hage Ali, a Beirut-based international security expert. Hage Ali told CNN there are also a significant number of Syrian veterans of the Iraqi insurgency present in these two areas, including some skilled in urban warfare. He said sources on the ground spoke of “thousands” of returnees from Iraq.

Constraints to Expansion

Analysts say al Qaeda may nevertheless hit a recruitment ceiling in Syria. In Iraq the deeply unpopular U.S. occupation helped al Qaeda spread its global Jihadist ideology, but there are no U.S. troops on the ground in Syria.

Another drawback for the group, says Benotman, is the memory of the barbaric violence of al Qaeda in Iraq and its killing of so many Muslim civilians in attacks across the Arab world. He says most Salafist groups in Syria – even if their goal is to create an Islamic state, have been determined to keep their distance from al Qaeda because they are not motivated by global jihad.

One such group is Sukur al Sham, a Jihadist fighting force which may have several thousand fighters, including some western recruits and which has carried out a number of attacks against Syrian security forces, including suicide bombings.

“The Arab uprisings has ushered in what I call the era of the new Jihadists - they are complete newcomers to the scene. They’ve dropped a lot of the old al Qaeda concepts and don’t want to be part of the al Qaeda narrative - we’ve already seen this in Libya. This is a very important development,” Benotman told CNN.

Benotman nevertheless warns that if regime brutality and sectarian violence escalate, al Nusra could expand its influence over other Jihadist groups.

Reports suggest al Nusra is already impressing other Jihadist rebel units and even rank and file members of the Free Syrian Army with its fighting prowess.

“When it comes to al Qaeda you need to look at the impact, not the number of fighters. The capability to carry out operations is key and here it may not be easy to compete with al Qaeda,” said Benotman.

Support infrastructure

Al Qaeda elements in Syria are already taking advantage of a regional support infrastructure which stretches from Lebanon to Jordan to Iraq and is mobilizing fighters to travel to the country, he said. Despite the arrival of fighters from al Qaeda affiliates such as the Lebanese Fatah al Islam, analysts say foreign fighters still represent a small minority of those fighting in Jihadist ranks in Syria.

However, regional security analysts say that al Qaeda elements in Syria, like many other rebel opposition fighting groups, are struggling to obtain weapons and explosives, which may blunt their ability to make an impact. In Iraq by contrast, Sunni insurgent groups were able to build explosive devices from looted regime stockpiles.

Western officials have been concerned that Jihadist groups, including those supportive of al Qaeda, may become better equipped as a result of funds raised by private donors in some Gulf countries. The fear that weapons may end up with Jihadists has been one of the key reasons why western countries have been reluctant to arm rebel forces in Syria.

Saudi authorities, conscious of al Qaeda tapping into private sources in the Kingdom in years past, have moved to take control of fundraising efforts for Syria’s rebels.

In his latest video address, Zawahiri also took aim at the new Egyptian government, despite its Islamist complexion - mocking its adherence to the 1981 peace treaty with Israel.

“I appeal to the honorable members of the Egyptian army, and there are many of them, not to be guards for the borders of Israel, and not to defend its borders or participate in besieging our people in Gaza,” he said.

Despite considerable output by al Qaeda’s media arm (four in about 48 hours) the landscape for the organization’s leadership is as challenging as at any time since 9/11.

Many of al Qaeda’s senior figures, including Osama bin Laden, are dead or captured as a result of counter-terrorism operations in Pakistan. Those lost include many of its operational experts, such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Younis al Mauretani and Rashid Rauf.

Most of al Qaeda’s terrorist plots against the West since 9/11 have been aborted or broken up. It’s unclear how far al Qaeda “central’ even knew about significant attacks like the Madrid train bombing in March 2004 - although Rauf appears to have been intimately involved in the London subway bombings the following year.

The group’s sources of finance in the Gulf have come under attack from the U.S. Treasury and encrypted documents discovered last year by German intelligence revealed an organization under pressure, scrambling to find new ways of attacking the West.
One document, titled “Future Works” and thought to have been written in 2009, suggests al Qaeda was in a hurry to prove its relevance, amid intense pressure from western counter terrorism agencies.

“The document delivers very clearly the notion that al Qaeda knows it is being followed very closely,” according to Yassin Musharbash of the German newspaper Die Zeit, which first reported its existence.

“It specifically says that western intelligence agencies have become very good at spoiling attacks, that they have to come up with new ways and better plotting.”

One idea discussed was attacks on cruise ships. There was also a recommendation to train European Jihadists quickly and send them home – rather than use them as fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan – with instructions on how to keep in secret contact with their handlers. But al Qaeda’s barren run continues.

Now al Qaeda’s continuing relevance depends to a great extent on its ‘franchises’ - and on the course of events in the Middle East, where the iron-fist of dictators has given way to shades of democracy (Tunisia, Egypt); uncertainty (Libya); and bloodshed (Syria, Yemen and Iraq once again.)

Zawahiri acknowledged this in his latest address - underlying al Qaeda’s geographical reach.

“Qaedat al-Jihad was originally in Afghanistan before the Crusader war against it, and now it has four branches outside of Afghanistan and millions of supporters in every corner of the world.” It appears he was referring to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), al Qaeda in Iraq (ISI), al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Shabaab in Somalia.

Growth in Africa

In Egypt, Tunisia and Libya militant Islam has found greater room to maneuver - not the least in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula where Salafist cells have recently launched rocket and gun attacks against military and police outposts.

According to western counter-terrorism sources, Zawahiri has also tried to influence militant Islamic groups in eastern Libya, dispatching an envoy to the area. But al Qaeda and Salafist extremism face a growing challenge from newly-formed governments hostile to their interpretation of Islam.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains a substantial threat both in Yemen and beyond its borders. But a military offensive in recent months has driven AQAP out of southern towns and an aggressive U.S. drone campaign has begun to erode its leadership.

In the last few months, AQAP has lost deputy leader Said al Shehri and one of its most senior operatives, Fahd al Quso. An April plot to smuggle a bomb on board a U.S.-bound airliner was disrupted thanks to a Saudi double-agent who has penetrated the group.

Africa in the past few years has been a bright spot for al Qaeda affiliates, with the growth of al Shabaab in Somalia, now formally part of al Qaeda, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb taking advantage of a security vacuum and plentiful weapons in the Sahel. But al Shabaab is under pressure from both the Kenyan and Ethiopian military and beset by internal dissent. It’s at risk of losing the port of Kismayo, its hub and main source of funds.

The seizure of much of northern Mali by Ansar Dine [Defenders of the Faith] – a group sympathetic to al Qaeda – has sent shockwaves across the region. Ansar’s occupation of Timbuktu - and the imposition of sharia law in a city long accustomed to a more gentle interpretation of Islam - serves as a reminder of the feeble hold of governments in the region. But Ansar’s alliance with Tuareg militia, always tentative, fell apart weeks after they had found common cause in rebelling against Mali’s central government, and its grip on the region looks uncertain at best.

All of which makes events in Syria of growing importance to Zawahiri and al Qaeda “central.”

“Whenever you have a case of civil strife and instability, as you have in Syria, it makes it extremely attractive to extremists,” Benjamin told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour last month.

Zawahiri’s ultimate aim of creating a theocratic Islamist order in the Arab world has for many years rested on two foundations: creating a safe-haven for fighters in the Arab world and winning the support of the Arab masses.

The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq provided al Qaeda with an unprecedented opportunity, but the barbaric sectarian-driven attacks of al Qaeda in Mesopotamia under the leadership of Musab al Zarqawi led to a rapid erosion of support on the Arab street.

Syria may offer al Qaeda a second chance – an opportunity to regain support across the Arab world by portraying itself as the defender of Sunnis against a merciless Alawite regime. But it has to be careful not to be perceived as trying to co-opt or impose itself on the uprising. That was its mistake in Iraq.

The growing sectarian complexion of Syria’s violence may portend the fracturing of a state long held together by repression and an ubiquitous security service, providing al Qaeda with the opportunity to thrive amid a meltdown of authority - and taking it right up to Israel’s border.

Al Qaeda leader urges support for ousting Syria’s Assad

13/09/12

(Reuters) - Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri has called on all Muslims to back the rebels in Syria, saying the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad would bring them closer to the ultimate goal of defeating Israel, according to an audio recording posted on the Internet on Thursday.

Speaking on the anniversary of the September 11 attacks, Zawahri criticized Muslim governments in the Middle East and in Asia for failing to pursue the cause of political Islam. He chastised the new leadership in Egypt in particular for sticking to its 1979 peace treaty with Israel and Pakistan, which he described as a “government for sale and an army for rent”.

The 2011 Arab Spring revolutions have redrawn the political landscape in the Middle East, bringing in Islamist governments in Tunisia and Egypt and increasing the influence of Islamist political groups throughout the region, which Western governments have watched with concern.

Zawahri said the United States was propping up Assad because it feared the rise of another Islamist regime to threaten its ally Israel.

“Supporting jihad in Syria to establish a Muslim state is a basic step towards Jerusalem, and thus America is giving the secular Baathist regime one chance after another for fear that a government is established in Syria that would threaten Israel,” he said.

More than 20,000 people have been killed in the 18-month uprising against Assad, who claims that his government is battling militants who want to set up an Islamist state. The protest started as a pro-democracy protest movement but has since turned into an armed conflict with sectarian aspects.

Zawahri, who took over as Al Qaeda chief after Osama bin Laden was killed last year, said “the Islamic nation” needed to focus on the goal of helping to “liberate Palestine” - a reference to Israel and the occupied territories where there are zones of Palestinian self-rule.

He said governments should annul peace treaties with Israel, criticized Turkey, Iran and Arab governments in the Gulf, and ridiculed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for seeking peace with the Jewish state.

He singled out Egypt, saying the Muslim Brotherhood-led government was serving Israel by guarding its borders according to the terms of the Camp David peace treaty.

“I appeal to the honorable members of the Egyptian army, and there are many of them, not to be guards for the borders of Israel, and not to defend its borders or participate in besieging our people in Gaza,” he said.

Egypt has launched a campaign against Islamist militants in Sinai after an attack that killed at least 16 soldiers last month.

Yemeni demonstrators stormed the U.S. embassy in Sanaa on Thursday in protest at a film circulated on the Internet they considered blasphemous to Islam. The U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other staff were killed in an attack on the U.S. consulate overnight on Tuesday and protests also took place outside the embassy in Cairo.

Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi was in Brussels on Thursday on his first visit to Europe since he won an election in June, and condemned the violence.

(Reporting By Ali Abdelati; Writing by Mirna Sleiman and Sami Aboudi; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)