With the Gulf countries’ recent step, the noose is tightening around the neck of Assad

In a firm move, Gulf states announced that they would withdraw their monitors from Syria thus sending a clear message that the Assad regime has failed to comply with the Arab League’s plan to put an end to the bloody crackdown on protesters. Evidently, the common stand taken by the Gulf countries cannot be more striking. Withdrawing their monitors from Syria is tantamount to saying that the Gulf countries are not going to be part of Assad’s game of buying time while Syrian people are subject to unremitting killing.

It seems that Assad is not in touch with reality. While he has no chance to stay in power as all of his allies in the region are under attack, he still behaves as if he is invincible! He fools nobody but himself when he keeps talking about an external conspiracy that targets his regime.

In a last-ditch attempt to avoid internationalization of the Syrian crisis, the Arab League proposed a road map that states that Assad transfer power to his deputy and a new national government is formed within two months. Presidential and parliamentary elections would be held after that. To the Arabs, this is the best way of curbing violence and averting international intervention. Yet the Syrian regime dismissed it as a “flagrant” violation of Syrian sovereignty.

Against this backdrop, the Gulf states decided to act swiftly by withdrawing all of their monitors (55 of the 165 monitors sent to Syria). Interestingly, Damascus is still employing the same boring false pretexts. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem assailed the road plan was a “plot” against his country abetted by the Arabs. He added that his country would continue targeting “armed terrorist gangs.” If anything, this last statement indicates clearly that the Syrian regimes has reached the no-return point and that it has no real intention to end the long ten-month bloody crackdown on people.

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the Syrian crisis is on its way to get internationalized. The Gulf states urged the Security Council to take what it takes to force Assad to relinquish power. But Syria is still relying on two allies in the Security Council - China and Russia - to block any effort to that effect. In his dismissive response to the call for taking the file to the Security Council, Walid Moallem said that Arabs could take the whole file to “New York or to the moon, as long as we don’t have to pay for their ticket…Russia will not agree on the foreign interference in Syria’s internal affairs, and this is a red line.”

With the Gulf countries’ recent step, the noose is tightening around the neck of Assad. They offered him a safe exist from Syria but it seems that he is not the one who calls the shots in Damascus. The security circle around him is looking for a showdown with all. Yet, the Syrian regime does not understand that Russia is open to a new initiative that can force Assad to leave. Russia is against military intervention and the West has affirmed its intentions not to interfere. But Russia cannot protect the isolated regime forever.  Equally important, China has recently signed an oil deal with Saudi Arabia thus getting closer to the Gulf countries’ position while moving away from Iran. In the Arab League’s deliberation on the new road map, Iraq took a positive step by agreeing to the road map. This might be coordinated with Tehran and thus reflecting a new Iranian approach. For sure, this was bad news for the Syrian regime.

All in all, the Arabs have given the regime in Syria every possible chance to put a cap on violence and embark upon genuine reform. Yet, the regime kept the same line dismissing all efforts to end the crisis. Clearly, Assad and his cronies have failed miserably in reading the new changes that have swept the region. Their miscalculation could not be more striking. While stronger regimes fell under the pressure of people, Assad kept thinking that his regime was different and that his allies from within and from without would stand up to a “Western-Zionist” conspiracy. Finally, the Gulf states are fed up and thus they refuse to play the role of a fake witness to the daily killing of Syrians. In brief, the countdown of change in Syria started once Saudi Arabia announced its intention not to take part in the Arab League mission in Syria. Now it remains to be seen how the rest of the Arab countries are going to behave. Can they continue with a plan without an active Gulf participation? I doubt!

Thursday, 26 January 2012

This is the first time the SNC addresses the great neighboring people of Lebanon with whom Syrian feel a great sense of brotherhood and common destiny. The message reaffirms that a future democratic Syria will bring hope and stability to both Syria and Lebanon and open new avenues of cooperation based on national interest.

Bellow is the text of this open letter.

To our brothers and sisters in Lebanon,

Our Revolution and our people’s sacrifice for freedom, dignity, and democratic change have entered the 11th month. In the midst our struggle to oust Bashar Al-Assad’s regime and his thugs, our victory is near. The SNC very much appreciates the Lebanese people’s solidarity, as well as their political, humanitarian, and moral support.

Both the Syrian and Lebanese people share a common cause that is better served by democratic regime change in Syria, especially with regard to Lebanon’s sovereignty. This is an opportunity to turn back the dark pages of history in the Syrian-Lebanese relationship; the dark pages brought on by a dictatorial Syrian regime that exercised the worst of tutelage, influence, and interference.

Our Council assures you that the Syrian Revolution will paint a better picture: we will transition from the current status, dictatorship, and tyranny to an era of freedom and democracy. The latter holds a wide, bright horizon that is open for our peoples to establish a close, cooperative relationship based on a common future.

Dear Lebanese brothers and sisters:

The Syrian National Council seeks a bright future with Lebanon, and a free and democratic Syria, and emphasizes the following principles:

1. A free, democratic, and independent Syria will recognize a sovereign and independent Lebanon.
2. Future Syrian-Lebanese relations will be between two independent and equal states and based on a common history and a common future.
3. We will establish collaborative efforts between our two democratic and independent nations, which play an integral role within the Arab framework. In addition, we will create a new Arab order inspired by a new concept of Arabism in the cultural, economic, and humanitarian arenas. Both countries will cooperate in support of a new Arab bond, inspired by the Riyadh Declaration of 2007, to establish and consolidate pluralistic values of tolerance in the Arab world.
4. Since our countries share common attributes, such as ethnic and religious diversity in a pluralistic society, we must vow to protect our rich history, which has contributed so heavily to humanity and culture.
5. Consistent with the principles above, we will respect Lebanon’s National Charter embodied in the Taif Agreement. We look forward to working with a democratic Lebanese state in the near future on the following important issues:
   
   1. Review agreements signed between the two countries and reach new agreements based on the independent and common interests of both nations
   2. Focus on a relationship between the two nations within the framework of diplomatic representation by our respective embassies.
   3. Abolish the Syrian-Lebanese Supreme Court.
   4. Demarcate the Syrian border, particularly in the Shebaa Farms.
   5. Adjust the common border between the two countries.
   6. End the intelligence and security role, which previously intervened in Lebanese affairs (including arms smuggling). Afford Lebanon its right to stand as an independent entity governed by its principles and the rule of law.
   7. Form an inquiry commission to resolve the issue of detained and missing Lebanese nationals in Syrian prisons.

Dear Lebanese brothers and sisters,

After the Syrian Revolution emerges victorious, and when we are armed with freedom and democracy, we will face a long struggle as we transition into the new era of civility, modernity, and progress. We look forward to building a future based on mutual interests.

The SNC will present a set of principles that govern Syrian-Lebanese relations. These principles stem from the acknowledgement that Syria’s interests are in seeing a relationship with Lebanon that is based on brotherhood, mutual respect, joint work, and mutual interests. It is in both countries’ best interests to promote a new regime founded on new Arab interests and equality.

The Syrian National Council has chosen this time to apply these principles because we stand on the edge of a monumental, historical change for both Syria and Lebanon. The Assad regime, which has been a permanent obstacle in preventing the development of appropriate relations between our two countries and peoples, is on the precipice. We proclaim that today is not only an act of faith to these relations, but a solemn recognition that two independent states can work together, achieve together, and progress together. We represent two states that will mutually support one other.

My dear brothers and sisters,

The Syrian Revolution addresses you heart-to-heart and mind-to-mind. We are here to work together toward a bright future in achieving peace, security, and stability in the region and for its peoples.

Glory to Lebanon’s fallen heroes who died for the sake of independence.

Glory to our fallen heroes, whose Revolution was written in Syrian blood.

Six Persian Gulf nations said they will withdraw their monitors as they sought U.N. intervention to remove Assad from power.

The U.S., the European Union, the Arab League and Turkey all have introduced sanctions against Damascus in response to Syrian President Bashar Assad’s violent crackdown on opponents. The uprising has left more than 5,400 people dead, according to the U.N. estimates.

The U.N. Security Council has been unable to agree on a resolution since the violence began in March because of a strong opposition from Russia and China.

Lavrov said Russia’s own draft of a U.N. Security Council resolution on the violence in Syria, which circulated earlier this month, remains on the table, and that Moscow was open for any “constructive proposals.” Western diplomats said the Russian proposal fell short of their demand for a strong condemnation of the Syrian regime’s crackdown on civilians.

But Lavrov reaffirmed that any U.N. resolution must say clearly it “couldn’t be interpreted to justify any foreign military interference in the Syrian crisis.”

“We believe that our approach is fair and well-balanced, unlike the attempts to pass one-sided resolutions that would condemn only one party and, by doing so, encourage another one to build up confrontation and take an uncompromising stance,” Lavrov said. “We have seen that in Libya, and we will not allow the repetition of the Libyan scenario.”

Russia abstained in the U.N. vote authorizing military intervention in Libya, but harshly criticized NATO for what it saw as an excessive use of force and civilian casualties during the NATO bombing campaign against strongman Moammar Gadhafi’s regime. The NATO-backed rebels in Libya eventually succeeded in overthrowing Gadhafi.

Russian officials have strongly warned the West against emulating the Libyan experience in Syria.

Lavrov called for a quick start of talks between the Syrian government and the opposition, suggesting they could be hosted by Egypt, the Arab League, Turkey or Russia.

Russia pressed to back security council resolution endorsing Arab demands for Syrian president to step down

A picture of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad on a building in Damascus. Photograph: Khaled al-Hariri/Reuters

Britain, the US and France are seeking Russian support for a new United Nations security council resolution to endorse Arab demands that Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, step down.

In a fresh twist to international diplomatic attempts to deal with the Syrian crisis, western countries have, in effect, abandoned attempts to impose UN sanctions on the Assad regime and are hoping for a new consensus for a political solution to the bloody 10-month impasse.

The basis for the new approach is the Arab League plan published on Sunday that called on Syria’s president to hand over powers to his deputy and set up a national unity government with the opposition. Syria lambasted the plan as “flagrant interference” in its internal affairs and accused Arab states of attempting to “internationalise” the crisis.

The secretary general of the Arab League, Nabil al-Arabi, and Hamed bin Jassem AlThani, the Qatari prime minister, are planning to brief the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, in New York in the next few days, Arabi’s deputy, Ahmed ben Helli, revealed in Cairo on Tuesday.

If Russia is supportive, the hope is to pass a UN resolution early next month forcing Assad to confront solid international opposition for the first time since the unprecedented uprising began last March, diplomatic sources said.

Russia has so far backed Assad and opposed punitive action or even verbal condemnation in part because it is angry at the way the UN was used to mandate the Nato intervention it opposed in Libya .

But it formally welcomed the league decision, and western diplomats say they believe it will now be hard for Moscow to veto an explicit Arab call for the Syrian leader to step down.

On Monday a Kremlin envoy appeared to rebuke Assad for failing to promote a peaceful solution, though the foreign ministry was quick to insist that Moscow’s position was unchanged.

China, which is also one of the permanent five veto-wielding members of the security council, has blocked anti-Syrian action but is thought likely to shift position if Russia does. The US has criticised Russia for supplying weapons to Syria, which received a shipment of Russian ammunition this month and has signed a $550m (£352m) deal for 26 Yak-130 jet trainer aircraft. The Syrian port of Tartous on the Mediterranean coast is an important base for the Russian navy.

Western governments also point out that the Arab League plan is a Syrian version of the long-negotiated departure of the Yemeni president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was brokered by western and Arab states and accepted by Russia.

But Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Muallem, expressed confidence that Russia would stand by its long-standing ally. “Our relations with Russia have deep roots,” he told reporters in Damascus. “Russia cannot welcome foreign intervention in Syria. That is too much.”

Syria no longer wanted “Arab solutions to the crisis”, Muallem insisted. “Heading to the security council will be the third stage in their plan, and the only thing left is the last step of internationalisation. They can head to New York or to the moon. So long as we are not paying for their tickets it is none of our concern.”

Qatar’s Sheikh Hamad, the leading anti-Assad hawk, had warned the league would go to the UN if the Damascus government did not implement the initiative, which European governments have welcomed as a potential “game-changer”. The emerging diplomatic initiative overshadowed continuing doubts about the future of the troubled league monitoring mission in Syria, whose Saudi and other Gulf members have now been formally withdrawn.

But it is understood that they may be replaced by observers from Muslim countries such as Indonesia and Turkey. Syria agreed to extend its mandate by a further month. The Damascus government has seen the observers as a useful way of being seen to co-operate, though their mission has been heavily criticised by the Syrian opposition for failing to halt Assad’s crackdown.

The opposition Syrian Revolution General Commission said 15 people had been killed across the country on Tuesday. Other organisations gave higher figures but none could be confirmed.

In another development an officer in Syrian air force intelligence, the most feared of the regime’s security bodies, announced live on an opposition TV channel that he was defecting.

Britain is openly urging the Arab League to “ask the UN security council to pass an appropriate resolution that will assist towards saving lives in Syria”, William Hague, the foreign secretary, said after talks with his Australian counterpart.

Syria has rejected an Arab League call for President Bashar al-Assad to hand over power to his deputy.

Watch video here.

The league, meeting in Cairo, also called on Syria to form a national unity government with the opposition within two months.

A government official called the plan “flagrant interference” in Syria’s internal affairs, state TV said.

The UN says more than 5,000 people have died as a result of the crackdown on protests since they began last March.

The league called on both sides to end the bloodshed.

The government in Damascus says it is fighting “terrorists and armed gangs” and claims that some 2,000 members of the security forces have been killed.

Arab League split

“Syria rejects the decisions taken which are outside an Arab working plan, and considers them an attack on its national sovereignty and a flagrant interference in internal affairs,” the unnamed Syrian official said.

The official said the Arab League proposals were not in the interests of the Syrian people and would not prevent the country from “advancing its political reforms and bringing security and stability to its people who have shown, during this crisis, their support for national unity as they have rallied around President Assad”.

Saudi Arabia said it was pulling out of the league’s 165-strong monitoring mission in Syria because Damascus had broken promises on peace initiatives.

While the Arab League ministers said they were extending the controversial mission for another month, analysts say the Saudi decision has thrown its longer-term future into serious doubt.

Saudi Arabia is one of the key founders of the league’s projects, but the monitors have been criticised for failing to stop the violence.

The Arab League is now increasingly split about what could be done to resolve the Syrian crisis, the BBC Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen in Damascus reports.

With the Syrians rejecting the conditions of the initiative, the Arab League’s roadmap is effectively in tatters, our correspondent says.

Meanwhile, violence has continued in Syria, with activists reporting battles between government troops and army defectors in Damascus’ suburb of Douma on Sunday.

At least five people were killed, according to Syria’s Local Coordination Committees.

Activists say almost 1,000 people have been killed since the monitoring mission began in December.

‘No military intervention’

At the Arab League meeting, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal urged the international community to step in and put pressure on Damascus.

Qatari ruler Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani read out a statement agreed by the ministers laying out an ambitious plan of political reform.

It called on President Assad to delegate power to his vice-president to engage in proper dialogue with the opposition within two weeks, and form a government of national unity in two months.

The BBC’s Jeremy Bowen says supporters of President Bashar al-Assad were on the streets in Damascus

The league said this should eventually lead to multi-party elections overseen by international observers.

“The new Arab initiative adopted by the foreign ministers envisages the peaceful departure of the Syrian regime,” Sheikh Hamad said, in a quote translated by the AFP news agency.

He said the league would seek the support of the UN Security Council for the changes.

But he added: “We’re not talking about military intervention.”