#Syria attacks Hamas leader as rift widens

02/10/12

Syria’s state-run media have criticized the leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas – once a staunch ally of the Damascus regime – for allegedly turning his back on President Bashar al-Assad.

Syrian TV in a late Monday broadcast described Hamas’ leader Khaled Meshal as “ungrateful and traitorous.”

Meshal used to be based in Damascus but now spends most of his time in Qatar, which backs Syrian rebels battling Assad’s troops.

Relations between Assad’s regime and Hamas have been disintegrating over since Syria’s uprising erupted over 18 months ago.

Hamas at first took a neutral stance, but then in February, the group praised Syrians for “moving toward democracy and reform.”

Most Hamas leaders have since left Syria to settle in Egypt, where their allies in the Muslim Brotherhood are in power.

Mursi, during a Tehran summit in August, condemned the Syrian regime and offered his support to the rebels.

Meshal and Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh met separately with Mursi in July. The meetings were hailed as a “turning point” in bilateral relations.

Meshal announced last month that he would not be seeking reelection as head the Hamas movement.

(AP, Al-Akhbar)

Leader of Muslim Brotherhood Opposes Kurdish Entity in #Syria

22/09/12


A rebel takes position against Syrian government forces in the city of Aleppo. Photo: AFP.

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands – The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood’s secretary general, Mohammed Riad al-Shaqfa, emphasized his party’s rejection of a Kurdish entity being established in Syria.

In an interview with the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet, Shaqfa revealed the Muslim Brotherhood’s worries regarding developments in the Kurdish areas of Syria, and stated that there is no such a thing as a “Kurdish region” in the country.

“There is no one single purely Kurdish area in Syria and the Kurds are a minority in northeastern areas since they live with other components of Syrian society there,” Shaqfa told Cumhuriyet.

He added, “We clearly oppose the ambitions of establishing a Kurdish entity in Syria.”

Most research estimates Syrian Kurds make up between 12 and 15 percent of the population in Syria. However, Shaqfa claims, “The Kurds in Syria do not constitute more than 5 percent.”

Shaqfa’s statements angered many Syrian Kurdish activists and politicians, and caused controversy between the different revolutionary forces in Syria.

Massoud Akko, a prominent Syrian Kurdish activist and member of the Syrian Journalists Association (SJA), told Rudaw on Thursday that the statements by the leader of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood went too far.

“This is not the first time for Riad al-Shaqfa to issue such flawed statements about the Kurds,” Akko said. “Neither Shaqfa and his group nor any other opposition party know the precise percentage of Kurdish people in Syria.”

He added, “The Kurdish population … should be based on the results of research, not by issuing baseless statements in this regard, because there was never a neutral or official census concerning the Syrian Kurds.”

“My advice to Mr. Riad al-Shaqfa and his entire group is to read more about the Kurds before issuing any statement; otherwise, it would be better for them to shut up,” Akko concluded.

According to Akko, such hostile statements by opposition leaders against the Kurds reinforce the divisions in Syria.

“Shaqfa and his group reveal their hostility to the Kurdish people, and that doesn’t serve the revolution and its goals. I think that such a position represents a serious danger to the future of the Kurdish people and their issue in Syria, in the case that the Muslim Brotherhood rules the country someday,” Akko said.

He continued, “They should review these shameful statements and attitudes which basically spread a spirit of hatred between them and the Kurdish people.”

Regarding the establishment of a Kurdish entity in Syria, Akko stated, “That is one of the legitimate rights for Kurds in Syria according to all the international conventions and the U.N. Declaration of Human Rights. The Kurds are a nation and it is their legitimate and unquestionable right to be an independent entity and enjoy their sovereignty on their own land.” 

However, Akko noted that none of the Kurdish factions have demanded that an independent Kurdish entity be established in Syria, and that their ultimate demand is for a decentralized federal state as is found in Germany, Switzerland, the U.S and the U.A.E.

An alternative demand is the right to a self-governed Kurdish region where the Kurds can enjoy an autonomous administrative rule, a right they have been deprived of for decades under different Syrian governments.

Akko argued that a Kurdish state is a right, and any denial of this by any party or opposition faction is unacceptable and should be condemned by all Kurds.

“The main question remains whether it can be implemented, because this issue is relevant to the geopolitical circumstances in the region,” Akko said, also noting the importance of international support towards reaching this Kurdish ambition.

“Anyway, nothing is impossible,” he concluded. “Where there’s a will, there is a way.

The mystery of the Syria contact group

21/09/12

By Vijay Prashad

In late August, Egypt’s new president Mohammed Morsi proposed the formation of a regional initiative to stem the conflict in Syria. Five decades ago, Egypt and Syria were yoked together to form the United Arab Republic, an experiment that lasted less than three years. Since then relations between the two states has ebbed and flowed, reliant more on the winds of mutual opportunity

The mystery of the Syria contact group
By Vijay Prashad

In late August, Egypt’s new president Mohammed Morsi proposed the formation of a regional initiative to stem the conflict in Syria. Five decades ago, Egypt and Syria were yoked together to form the United Arab Republic, an experiment that lasted less than three years. Since then relations between the two states has ebbed and flowed, reliant more on the winds of mutual opportunity than on ambition or ideology. Nasser’s enormous personality had overshadowed all those who came after him and the failure of the Syrian-Iraqi union on Ba’ath lines reined in the ideologues.

When Mubarak cemented Egypt’s place in the Western ledger, the distance from the generally Soviet-leaning Syria of Hafez al-Assad could not have been greater. That Morsi comes from the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood does not earn him favors amongst the Syrian Ba’ath, whose fight against the Brothers goes back to before the Ikhwan’s attack on the Aleppo cadet school in 1979. The brutal assault by the Assad regime on the Brothers from Hama (1982) to the present must weigh on Morsi. Nonetheless, Morsi has brought Syria a gift that it cannot refuse on its face: the first chance of a non-Western backed “intervention” to save the country from absolute destruction.

To ease the Assad regime, Morsi asked Iran’s government to take one of the four chairs of his Syria Contact Group. Iran remains close to Damascus for geo-strategic (and perhaps confessional) reasons. There is credible evidence that Iran’s aircraft have been flying over a willing Iraq to supply the isolated Assad government (whether with arms or not is yet to be established).

When the Arab Spring was in high gear, Iran sought to take advantage of it for its own political gain. Tehran’s intellectuals dubbed the Spring an “Islamic Awakening” and sought to link it to a dynamic opened up by the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Iran and Egypt broke relations over the Israel-Egypt peace deal in 1979, and links have only recently begun to be fixed. Tehran is eager to impress Egypt with its diplomatic flexibility, as long as this does not mean that it sells its few remaining allies down the river. There is considerable motivation in Iran to break out of its own strangulation by the West through new ententes with the Arab states.

The other regional actor that sought to take the measure of the Arab Spring and claim it to its advantage was the old imperial power, Turkey. Its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, hastened to Cairo and proposed his Justice and Development Party as an adequate model for a modern political Islam, and their hadari version of Islam as a modern religious sensibility (as opposed to salafi Islam, exported out of the Arabian peninsula). Turkey backed the rebellion in Syria as part of its forward policy, but in time this has come to be seen by sections of the Ankara political elite to have been a grave overreach.

The precipitous Balkanization of Syria might produce a Syrian Kurdistan beside the already autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. A new front by the Turkish military against its Kurdish population in Semdinli showed the price that could be paid for Erdogan’s support for the rebellion. The implications of Erdogan’s policy has come on Turkey’s shoulders, with disarray in the army at the same time as US President Obama has asked Turkey to “do more” (the catchphrase from Washington to its old CENTRO allies, Pakistan on one side, Turkey on another). Morsi’s Contact Group provides Erdogan’s government with an escape hatch from its excessive commitments. It takes the third seat on the Contact Group.

Saudi Arabia is the most eager backer of a section of the Syrian rebels. Keen to keep rebellion out of the peninsula, the Saudis are enthusiastic about the export of that rebellious energy to shores far and wide. This was the motivation for the creation of the Rabita al-Alam al-Islami (World Muslim League) in 1962, and of the substantial bursary paid to jihadis from Chechnya to Afghanistan.

When Morsi asked the Saudi Arabia to sign up to the Contact Group, it had little choice but to join and take the fourth seat. A credible source from the website Jadaliyya tells me that the Saudi Arabia and the Iranians “struck a deal” at the Organization of the Islamic Conference meeting held in Mecca this August when the Contact Group idea was mooted. “The Saudis would drop its steroidal support of the Syrian opposition in return for the Iranians convincing Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province Shias to tone down their opposition against al-Saud, if not altogether stopping their protests, threats and demands,” the source says.

A source from the Saudi Arabia Ministry of Foreign Affairs would neither affirm nor deny this story, but would say that “it is a likely tale. There were discussions between the two parties about a ‘cease fire’ in the eastern part.” If the Saudi Arabia joined the Contact Group, these sources say, it is more likely because they were able to get something in return to help them deal with levels of unrest inside the Kingdom that they had neither predicted nor know exactly what to do with absent the use of massive force. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Kamel Amr told al-Jazeera’s Rawya Rageh that he “sensed no exasperation from the Saudis over Iran’s participation in the Contact Group.”

Contact in Cairo
This week, foreign ministers from Egypt, Iran and Turkey met in Cairo to formulate a plan for the Contact Group. Nothing was made public, because the principals have agreed to have private talks until they settle on a firm plan. No sense in raising expectations when there has been little accomplished. The Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said, “The things that we agree on are greater than our differences.” What they agree on is the need for a regional solution, or as the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu put it, there is a need for “regional ownership of the issues of our region.”

One of the tasks of the Contact Group is to provide the new UN envoy, the Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi with a mandate and a roadmap. Brahimi came to Cairo from his meeting with Assad in Damascus. He immediately met the Arab League’s head, Nabil al-Arabi and sat in with the Contact Group. During his stop off in Amman, Jordan, Brahimi told al-Jazeera’s Jane Arraf that he was not optimistic, “The point I’m making as seriously, as strongly as I can is that the situation is very bad and worsening. It’s not improving. Syrians on both sides say from time to time we are going to win very soon.”

These maximum positions have collapsed the space for dialogue. Brahimi knows that it will require oxygen from outside to allow the Syrian opponents to breathe, and to then talk to one another. He cannot do this alone. The West and Russia are convulsed in their own Cold War interpretation of events in Syria; nothing will come from Washington or Moscow to help the Algerian veteran. This is why it was important that Brahimi came to the Contact Group’s meeting.

Salehi left Cairo for Damascus, where erroneous press reports suggesting that he was carrying a nine-point plan from the Contact Group. In fact, the Contact Group has no such plan. What Salehi was carrying was the Iranian proposal to the Group (which includes at least one non-starter, the addition of Iraq and Venezuela to Morsi’s delicate balancing act). The nine points include the need for Contact Group countries to send observers into Syria to replace the now departed UN observers, to end all arms delivery into Syria, to maintain a cease fire, and to create confidence toward some kind of mediated settlement which will include (it appears) the departure of Assad from the presidency. The Iranians have not released their 9 points, so the actual details of the plan are not known.

Where was Prince Abdulaziz?
One reason this could not have been the Contact Group’s plan is that the Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister was not present in Cairo. Initially, the press was told that he had other “previous engagements,” and then later the message came that Prince Saud bin Faisal al-Saud (the world’s longest serving Foreign Minister) is unwell. He is apparently in hospital in Los Angeles, USA. At previous events, such as the NAM Conference in Tehran and the GCC meeting in Jeddah in August, the Deputy Foreign Minister Prince Abdulaziz has taken his place. Even Prince Abdulaziz did not come.

Two US-based academics, close observers of Saudi politics, tell me that the Saudi Arabia is trying to send a signal that they are not interested in this process after all. Princeton’s Professor Toby Craig Jones (author of Desert Kingdom. How Oil and Water Forged Modern Saudi Arabia, 2010) says, “They don’t trust Tehran and have likely reserved judgment on Cairo for now.” Vermont’s Professor Gregory Gause (author of The International Relations of the Persian Gulf, 2010) says, “Saudis think that their side is winning and they don’t want to give the Iranians a seat at this table. They want to beat the Iranians in Syria.”

The University of London’s Professor Madawi al-Rasheed (author of Kingdom without Borders: Saudi Arabia’s Political, Religious and Media Frontiers, 2009) agrees, “[Saudi Arabia] sends an important signal that it will continue to play the game in Syria according to its own terms, meaning total exclusion of Iran from the Arab sphere.” Professor al-Rasheed is pessimistic for the success of the Contact Group. ” Saudi Arabia has a interest in the conflict continuing as this is currently absorbing Islamist revolutionary zeal inside Saudi Arabia, promoting the myth about the Iranian penetration of Arab land and the Shia conspiracy against Sunni Muslims. Without these foci, Saudi Arabia may end up suppressing a local uprising that has the potential to spread beyond the Shia Eastern province.”

It appears that the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia is driven by its obsessions with its oil-rich eastern provinces. Either it has cut a deal with the Iranians for a quid pro quo on Syria and the eastern provinces of its kingdom, or it wants to keep the Syrian bloodletting going as a tourniquet for its own internal hemorrhaging. Either way, Saudi Arabia seems the least serious about the Contact Group and its potential.

As Turkey’s Davutoglu put it, “Consultations with Saudi Arabia are necessary because the kingdom is a key player in the attempt to reach a solution to the Syrian crisis.” If the key player skips more meetings, it will dampen confidence in the Group and therefore in Brahimi for a regional solution to the Syrian crisis.

The Contact Group will meet again at the sidelines of the UN’s General Assembly next week. The Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry will not confirm that its representatives will be at the Group’s meeting. The Egyptians, Iranians and Turks are enthusiastic. So is Brahimi. The road to peace in Syria might go through the Contact Group. But it requires Saudi Arabia involvement to make it credible.

Vijay Prashad’s latest book is Arab Spring, Libyan Winter (AK Press), whose Turkish edition, Arap Bahari, Libya Kisi is available from Yordam Kitap.

#Syria’s Assad to purge top Sunni armed forces officials

18/09/12

(AGI) - Rome, 18 Sep - Italy-Syria Observatory sources claim Syria’s Assad is preparing to purge Sunnis from the armed forces. With ties to Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood, the Iraqi sources quoted by the Observatory say that in efforts to rein in revolts Syrian president has set up an elite Alawi force.
  Planning to remove top Sunni armed forces officials from their posts by close of year, Assad is also claimed to have already pressed ahead with the purge within the air force and missiles departments…

#Syria cannot move on until the SNC is reformed

15/09/12

President of the Syrian National Council, Abdulbaset Sieda. Photograph: John Macdougall/AFP/Getty Images

The opposition Syrian National Council has come under attack from within and without. Western governments have given up on its ability to unite the opposition and some high-profile members have resigned.

Western governments, along with Qatar, Saudi and Turkey, have begun building channels of communication with grassroots opposition groups and activists by training them to run liberated areas and prepare for a post-Assad Syria.

A western diplomat who works on Syrian issues has told me that these countries are tapping into such groups to prevent the spread of militias after the downfall of the regime. The diplomat said that although the SNC receives sufficient relief resources, the funds are misspent. And, despite frequent attempts, the council failed to reform itself.

Ziour al-Omar, a Kurdish figure and a former member of the SNC, said:

“When the council was formed, there was a kind of balance between its components: secularists, liberals, nationalists, Islamists and other religious groups.

The imbalance occurred at a later stage when Islamist forces managed to control the decision-making process within the council, a development that had been watched closely and with discomfort by the international community.”

Members of the SNC sense the attempts to sideline it and have taken steps to assert its presence. The council is building ties with the more popular Free Syrian Army (FSA) and there is a plan to change the FSA’s name to the Syrian National Army – the similarity of names is not a coincidence but a clear attempt to maintain the Syrian National Council as the leading brand.

Despite its current failure, however, sidelining the Syrian National Council is a mistake. While it is an effective policy to build channels of grassroots communication, that is not enough. Instead of abandoning the council, the west and its allies in the region must throw their weight behind reforming the council.

There are several risks in abandoning the council. Political legitimacy will be a decisive factor in maintaining order after the downfall of the regime. Without a legitimate political body, the risk of the country lapsing into chaos is extremely high. Establishing legitimacy must not be deferred to the transition period, as some suggest, because it takes time, and should be proven through palpable contribution to the downfall of the regime.

Because of this lack of legitimacy and the council’s performance, anti-regime fighters are planning the future of the country without the council. The rebels believe the council is idly waiting to be handed the keys to the country by the Free Syrian Army. They have a point. How can a political body that claims to represent people in a complex struggle against a brutal regime have members living in different parts of the world without dedication to the cause?

According to Hussein Jamo, a Kurdish-Syrian journalist who embedded with the FSA in Aleppo for a week, the fighters began to give up on the council by the turn of the year. Criticism by activists and fighters on the ground heightened when the SNC failed to provide relief work after the regime’s violent escalation that turned several cities to rubble. SNC member Ridwan Ziada has blamed the donor countries for this, saying the first funds received by the council were in February.

The persistence of rifts within the opposition and the rise of extremism are driving more people towards the Assad camp. Also, the failure of the council has a direct impact on the unity and operations of the anti-regime fighters. The selective distribution of ammunition, according to Jamo, is a major cause of rifts among brigades of the FSA. Ziour al Omar said the council’s top leadership distributes the money they receive among themselves and then spend it for the uprising as they see fit. “Each member then distributes it to his own supporters,” he said.

The west must tie support and funding for the council to reform and inclusiveness. Some groups and figures within the council have already established channels of financial support in the region, which means the west must work with its regional allies.

The unconditional flow of funding, along with other factors, impede progress. Influential members feel they do not need to bow to pressure and cede monopoly over the council. According to an SNC member, Syrian Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Riad al-Shiqfa has said: “The west has no choice but to deal with us [the council].”

There is a pervasive attitude among SNC members that the issue of unity has been put forward by the international community to justify inaction. SNC member Ghassan Mufleh called the issue of unity a “concoction” and said that “a person with conscious” should not speak about reassuring the minorities when the majority is being persecuted. Such a statement is an example of why many Syrians are averse to the council.

Different countries share some of the blame for the current state of the council, due to heavy interference early on (particularly from Turkey), the little support for the council when it was more representative and because some allied themselves with certain groups or individuals within the opposition. Those factors led to rifts, confusion and mixed messages.

Yet, the council has proven that it would not reform itself on its own. The international community must take serious steps to help the council reform or to form a new one.

#Syrian opposition fails to provide alternative to Assad

11/09/12

The Syrian opposition’s infighting, incompetence and lack of leadership have kept the beleaguered Bashar al-Assad alive, or so argues Syrian journalist Malik Al-Abdeh in a recent Foreign Policy piece.

Al-Abdeh insists that, instead of blaming the West for lack of military support, the Syrian National Council (SNC) should look in the mirror at its own defects and should quit demanding a Libya-type intervention. The author then clearly explains the difference between Syria and Libya:

But the West’s involvement in Libya came about partly because the Libyan opposition demonstrated a basic capacity for leadership. A transitional council was formed within one week of the first anti-Qaddafi protests. That council appointed a commander-in-chief to lead the rebel forces. It sent emissaries around the world to represent the opposition to foreign governments, and it immediately established contacts with grassroots constituencies inside the country.

The SNC, formed in Istanbul last year to head a post-Assad democratic transition, has been accused of being dominated by Islamists. In fact, the opposition council has failed to appeal to its own rebel forces, let alone the international community, opening a void that is now being filled by jihadists.

Al-Abdeh, crystalizing the opposition’s isolation, underlines the fact that no country apart from Libya has recognized the SNC as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

The SNC’s poor media strategy and inconsistent messaging have allowed the Assad regime to frame the narrative, which has enabled Damascus to convincingly convey, for example, that dangerous Islamist radicals are leading the opposition movement.

In addition, the regime has been able to leave the impression that Assad has long-term staying power, a message that has kept many Syrians on the fence if not supportive of the government. Such a dearth of proactive thinking leads Al-Abdeh to conclude that “the SNC’s fundamental failure is not one of organization but of imagination.”

The author also asserts that part of what drives the stalemate is that the SNC was created by a series of delicately constructed alliances between competitors: secularists and Islamists, Arabs and Kurds, party affiliates and independents, tribal chiefs and Facebook activists.

Basma Kodmani, a founding member who resigned from the SNC just weeks ago, believes the council is ill-equipped to deal with the situation due to the aforementioned factionalism. Kodmani recently expanded upon this point during an interview with Reuters:

“The groups inside the council did not all behave as one in promoting one national project. Some have given too much attention to their own partisan agendas, some to their personal agendas sometimes. That resulted in a major weakness in connecting closely with the groups on the ground and providing the needed support in all forms.”

The State Department has been leery of fully committing to the SNC due to the perceived lack of grassroots connections. This mentality is justifiable considering how American leaders were burnt in Iraq, where the U.S., devoid of any semblance of ground truth, picked illegitimate figures to lead the postwar government.

Al-Abdeh illustrates the attitude of American officials by pointing out how Secretary of State Hillary Clinton refused to meet an SNC delegation in Istanbul last month, opting to meet with independent activists instead.

The SNC’s authority crisis lies in the fact that its sources of “legitimacy” are external, including Arab money and Western recognition. Although Arab money still flows into its coffers, the West is looking for alternatives after growing impatient with the SNC’s internal divisions.

The biggest challenge to identifying a sound alternative is the Muslim Brotherhood, which has used the SNC to camouflage its parochial agenda. The Brotherhood will go to any length to secure power and will resist any attempts to establish a truly representative body. Al-Abdeh goes on to claim the Brotherhood and its ilk are not a far cry from Assad:

It must surely be a worrying development when those working to bring down dictatorship are found to be borrowing from the dictator’s manual.

The Syrian opposition must demonstrate a modicum of leadership, according to Al-Abdeh, before the international community makes “a Libya-type investment in men, material and political will.”

Syria slams Egyptian leader’s speech as interference

06/09/12

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syria condemned on Thursday calls by Egypt’s president for change in the country, which is battling a 17-month-old uprising against Bashar al-Assad, saying they amounted to blatant interference in its internal affairs.

The foreign ministry said President Mohamed Mursi’s comments to a meeting of Arab ministers in Cairo were a “clear attack on the right of the Syrian people to choose their future by themselves, without foreign interference”.

“What Mursi said is media incitement which aims to fuel the violence in Syria. This is no different from other governments who support the armed terrorist groups with money and weapons and training and shelter, making them partners in Syria’s bloodshed,” the foreign ministry statement said.

Egypt’s new Islamist president said on Wednesday the time had come in Syria “for change and not wasting time speaking of reform”. In a speech which also touched on the revolt in Egypt, he said Syrian authorities “must take into account the lessons of recent and ancient history”.

Mursi, who was the once-banned Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate in the election which followed the overthrow last year of Hosni Mubarak, formally resigned from the group when he won the presidency in June. Syria’s Brotherhood has been a major element in the revolt against President Assad.

The Syrian statement said Mursi’s comments reflected “the views of a group that has no grasp of the history shared by the Egyptian and Syrian people”.

(Reporting by Dominic Evans; Editing by Louise Ireland)

#Syrian opposition activists say too soon for new government

28/08/12

Syrian opposition activists say too soon for new government

BERLIN: Syrian opposition activists gathered in Berlin said Tuesday that it was too soon to form a transition post-Assad government after France said it would recognize a new provisional administration.

The opposition figures, meeting in the German capital to present a political roadmap after a possible ouster of President Bashar Assad, said it was premature to try to set up a new state.

“If the international community is not willing at this point to give recognition to a transitional government unanimously then it would be a wasted effort to jump into that,” Afra Jalabi, a Syrian-Canadian member of the executive committee of the so-called “Day After Project”, told reporters.

President Francois Hollande, speaking to French diplomats Monday, urged the Syrian opposition to form a “provisional, inclusive and representative” government, which he said France would recognize “as soon as it is formed”.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said he found the Day After project “an important contribution to a new Syria” but appeared cool to Hollande’s call.

“What is key is that the Syrian opposition unites and recognizes democracy, tolerance and pluralism,” he said. “We support the establishment of a credible alternative to the Assad regime.”

Amr al-Azm, a US-based history professor who is also on the Day After committee, said he was upbeat that a democratic government could eventually supplant the Assad regime.

“The transitional government must be inclusive, and reflect the diverse forces” in the country, he said. “I expect sometime in the near future there will be a transitional government.”

The group’s project was initiated by the Washington-based United States Institute of Peace in partnership with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The 45 participants included women and men, members of the Syrian National Council (SNC), the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups, those with experience in the Free Syrian Army and youth activists.

The project lays out goals including developing a new national identity based on civic unity, building consensus on key democratic principles and revamping the security forces to protect the rights of all citizens.

The document, the first of its kind from the Syrian opposition, offers recommendations for a new constitution and principles for institution building.

SNC member Murhaf Jouejati called the draft “a series of suggestions that will be taken or not by a provisional government, they are not written in stone”.

Analysts say the opposition is marred by sharp differences in strategy for fighting the regime and goals for a post-Assad Syria.

The Syria Survey focuses on ground level information about the #Syrian rebels not covered in the media or Blogosphere.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Islamist Rebels Break with the Muslim Brotherhood


The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood is on the outside looking in as their countrymen threaten to overthrow the regime that crushed their revolt in the 1980s. The new uprising has provided the Brotherhood, exiled to Europe by Hafez al-Assad, with an opening to reassert themselves inside Syria. They have struggled, however, to capitalize on the opportunity. Outside the country, the Brotherhood has become a dominant player in the Syrian National Council (SNC) which many now see as a front for the Brotherhood. Their dominancy within the exiled political leadership, however, has contributed to the weakness and factionalism of the exiles as many secular and minority groups do not want to align themselves with a Brotherhood dominated entity. The SNC is now a hollow body that has lost the confidence of the international community and failed to gain a constituency inside Syria.
Within Syria, the Brotherhood has distributed money liberally to Islamist rebel groups, but this has not always bought the allegiance they hoped for. Ahmed Abu Issa, head of the Islamist rebel group the Suqour al-Sham Brigade, released a video on August 19 denouncing the Brotherhood’s efforts to take control of rebel coordinating bodies. He ended the video by stating that he no longer has any ties to the Brotherhood. It is especially surprising that Issa would publicly break with the Brotherhood as he is an Islamist who aims to create an Islamic state in Syria, and because many of his fighters are related to those who died during the rebellion in the 1980s. This may also indicate that Abu Issa has sources of funds outside of the Brotherhood. The Brotherhood’s domination of the exiled political leadership has left it in control of a powerless entity, and if it continues to alienate Syria’s new Islamist rebel groups, it will not be able to play the dominant role in post-Assad politics that some observers expect.
#Syria’s refugees pay a cruel price as the conflict keeps spreading

11/08/2012

A Syrian friend of mine complained, rightly, that both sides in the country’s civil war have had a hand in destroying his house.

His summer villa was perched in a hillside village between Damascus and the Lebanese border. Armed militants broke in and fired, from the roof, at an army post. Soldiers responded with mortars and machine-gun fire. The rebels ran away.

No one won, and the house was wrecked.

If a single image sums up the war in Syria, my friend’s house does the job. Neither the troops nor the insurgents gave a damn about him or his house, and it’s not clear how much either cares about the country, either.

When 15 schoolchildren wrote the first dissident slogans on walls in the border town of Dera’a in February 2011, neither they nor the policemen who tortured them foresaw where their actions would lead.

The children’s courage emboldened their elders to march through the streets of Damascus, Homs, Idlib and other cities to voice discontent, as they never had before.

This was not a violent insurrection by religious obscurantists as in 1982, when the Muslim Brotherhood took up arms in Hama and Aleppo without consulting their inhabitants. Rather, this was a popular movement that was finding its way, learning from its mistakes and winning support.

Some backing came from foreign powers, which assisted the transformation of a popular and non-violent struggle into an armed uprising more like Hama in 1982 than Dera’a in 2011.

The outsiders, with their own objectives, provided rifles, ammunition, communications equipment, military vehicles and combat advice to young men who lacked the discipline and patience for a long-term, non-violent and democratic struggle.

The contending forces met head-on in Homs, whose citizens lost their houses and the previous harmony among communities.

No one envisaged the consequences of this conflict when it began. About 20,000 people, by most estimates, have died. More than that number are maimed, scarred or blinded for life. At least 78,000 have fled to neighbouring states, according to figures published by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

One NGO, Refugees International, estimates that another million people have been driven from their homes to other corners of Syria. Some have fled more than once, as the violence spread.

For many refugees, the rallying cries of the regime and of the armed opposition ring equally hollow. Some have been sheltered in tented camps in Turkey and Jordan, while others have found lodging with friends or relations in Lebanon.

Syrians, who earned an average of Dh1,000 a month when they had jobs, are paying rents of Dh365 a month or more to sleep in Bekaa Valley car parks or Dh1,850 for space above a garage. Others sleep rough and beg for sustenance in the streets of Lebanese cities.

The exiled Syrians are learning what Palestinians have known since 1948: refugee existence is demeaning, cruel and crippling.

Palestinian refugees, 486,000 of whom are registered with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in nine camps in Syria, are suffering more now than at any time in their 64 stateless years.

They are trapped, not permitted by Israel to return home and unable to obtain visas to most other countries. They are also caught between the regime’s and the Free Syrian Army’s rival demands on their loyalty.

Rebels took positions in Damascus’s largest refugee camp, Yarmouk, provoking a predictable army response. Shells hit Palestinian dwellings, frightening many refugees away to Lebanon, which offers neither work nor hope.

Young Palestinians conscripted into the government’s all-Palestinian brigade, the Palestine Liberation Army, have been attacked. When someone murdered about 20 of them on a bus near Aleppo in July, the regime and the Free Syrian Army blamed each other - although why the regime would kill conscripts in its own army is hard to explain.

No one is untouched. Nearly 150,000 Armenians are caught between the contending forces. Some belong to families that have lived in Syria for centuries, but the majority of them descend from survivors of the Turkish massacres of more than one million Armenians around the First World War.

Several hundred have reportedly left for Armenia. Those who depart are leaving behind their churches, some dating to the early years of Christianity, as well as schools, clubs and other institutions around which their comfortable lives revolved.

Criminals are looting Syria’s archaeological heritage, as they did in Iraq. Interpol has warned of “imminent threats” to Syria’s Sumerian, Hittite, Greek, Arab, Roman, Crusader and Ottoman treasures. Unesco appealed for protection of World Heritage Sites, and rebels have moved on the Crusaders’ Crac des Chevaliers and Aleppo’s Citadel. The Global Heritage Fund documented at least 16 historical venues “known to have been affected by shelling”.

In the meantime, Syria’s Kurds, with Bashar Al Assad’s blessing, have assumed control of their own affairs in the north-east, along the Turkish border.

This example of Kurdish autonomy upsets Turkey as much as the fact that the largest Kurdish group, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), is allied with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) that is launching armed attacks in south-east Turkey.

Mr Al Assad’s message to the Turks is perfectly clear: if you send my citizens to attack me, I can do just the same thing to you.

Now the kidnappings have begun. Salafists allied to the armed opposition have kidnapped a number of western journalists, and other militias have taken 48 Iranians.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry wrote to the US, through Swiss intermediaries, that “because of the United States’ manifest support of terrorist groups and the dispatch of weapons to Syria, the United States is responsible for the lives of the 48 Iranian pilgrims abducted in Damascus”.

This was very like the message the Iranians sent in 1982, when pro-Israeli Christian gunmen kidnapped four of its embassy personnel in Lebanon. That time, the retaliation came with the kidnapping of almost 100 western nationals over the follow=ing eight years.

Rather than contain this mayhem, which is already backfiring on Turkey and will undoubtedly do the same to the United States, Washington and Moscow are encouraging their clients to fight rather than negotiate.

Syria is the primary victim in all of this, but it will not be alone.

Charles Glass is the author of several books on the Middle East, including Tribes with Flags and The Northern Front: An Iraq War Diary. He is also a publisher under the London imprint Charles Glass Books.

What #Syria Looks Like From Tehran

Iran's Saeed Jalili (left) met President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Tuesday.

Sana/Handout/European Pressphoto Agency

Iran’s Saeed Jalili (left) met President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Tuesday.


08/08/2012

LONDON — Before rushing to judgment on Iran’s latest expression of solidarity with the embattled regime in Syria, it is worth considering how the conflict looks from Tehran.

In the 33-year history of Iran’s Islamic Republic, Syria is the only state to have consistently stood by it while hostile neighbors and outside powers conspired to bring about its downfall.

Small wonder then that Saeed Jalili, Iran’s visiting head of national security, assured President Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday, “Iran will not tolerate, in any form, the breaking of the axis of the resistance, of which Syria is an intrinsic part.”

Neither is it surprising that Tehran should view the internal conflict in Syria as part of a wider international war — with Iran as the ultimate target.

To understand the roots of Iranian paranoia, just look at the map. Iran has been steadily encircled by a network of U.S. military bases in the decades since the Iranian revolution of 1979.

Its situation was exacerbated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, a development that meant Iran’s leaders could no longer play one superpower against the other and that opened the former Soviet republics across Iran’s northern border to Western influence.

The departure of U.S. forces from Iraq has given Tehran a strategic benefit on its western frontier but that would be outweighed by the emergence of a potentially hostile regime in Damascus.

Iran’s opponents would argue that it has only itself to blame for its present isolation. Decades of hostile rhetoric towards the West and towards Israel have fostered an equally hostile response.

If Iran now faces a possible military assault to destroy its alleged nuclear weapons installations, it is because it has persistently defied international demands to come clean on its nuclear program.

However, Iranian leaders might consider that, in a region where two local powers — Israel and Pakistan — have the bomb, possession of the ultimate weapon is the best way to stay safe.

There have been opportunities over the years to break the cycle of hostility between Iran and the West, but these have invariably foundered, to the benefit of hardliners in Tehran.

Kofi Annan, the outgoing international peace envoy, wanted to bring Iran into discussions on Syria and make it part of the solution, given its historic ties with the regime. The idea was firmly slapped down by the Western powers.

A decade ago in Afghanistan, Iran cooperated with the U.S. in its post-9/11 assault on the Taliban regime. (Tehran had identified the threat posed by the Taliban much earlier than the West). But Washington took the opportunity for rapprochement no further.

Iran could be a natural ally in the war against Sunni fundamentalists such as those of Al Qaeda, who regard the Iranian Shia as heretics. But the West’s key allies in the region are Sunni states that are deeply suspicious of the Shia.

That innate suspicion has been further fueled by Iran’s attempts to portray itself as spiritual godfather of an “Islamic” Arab Spring (after the Tehran regime quashed its own domestic revolt in 2009).

The impact of regime change in the Arab World has in fact been largely negative from Tehran’s perspective. The Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Egypt is closer to Saudi Arabia than it is to Iran. If the Alawite-dominated regime in Damascus were to fall, it would mean the loss of a non-Sunni ally.

So, how far will Iran go towards protecting its long-term partner? It will not be happy if Mr. Assad goes. But beyond cash and supplies and the loan of military advisers, there is not much Tehran can do to determine the outcome.

Its best hope might be the emergence of a post-Assad regime that is not openly hostile to its interests, reserving the option of trying to destabilize a successor regime that was.

Indeed, Mr. Jalili’s assurances to Mr. Assad were ambivalent.

The only solution to the turmoil in Syria is democracy and respect for the choice of the people, he said.

In a sideswipe at Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which are widely reported to be arming the rebels, he said, “How can those who have never held an election in their country be advocates of democracy?”

His conclusion, which could have been penned by the White House or the United Nations, was: “We believe that a new path should be followed, through which the crisis can be resolved based on national and domestic dialogue.”

Support of a kind, but scarcely a declaration that Tehran is prepared to fight for Mr. Assad down to the last Iranian.

Why has the Saudi king invited Ahmadinejad to the #Syria summit?

07/08/2012

A diplomatic resolution looks unlikely in Syria, but in the realm of Saudi politics, a personal invitation from the king is symbolically important

Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been invited by the Saudi king to attend a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Photograph: Behrouz Mehri/AFP/Getty Images


The visit of the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to Saudi Arabia comes at a crucial time for the conflict in Syria. Few observers can be optimistic about the chances for diplomacy, with the Annan plan abandoned and the quieter efforts at reaching a US-Russia deal stalled.

Most analysts predict that Syria’s uprising against dictatorship – which began as a peaceful cross-sectarian movement calling for basic freedoms – will increasingly mutate into a sectarian civil war. Much of the western policy debate is moving on to the risks of prolonged state failure in a post-Assad future.

Within the Arab world, the debate over Syria is increasingly becoming polarised along ideological and sectarian lines, as the country’s strategic importance to the region’s great powers seems to be obscuring the commonalities between the basic demands of the Syrian protesters and their counterparts in other Arab countries. Any efforts to draw back from the brink – and to stop the Syrian uprising against dictatorship being derailed by a sectarian regional proxy war – deserve attention.

Ahmadinejad’s visit, which an aide has said will go ahead, is a rare one. He last visited Saudi Arabia in 2007, at a time when the Gulf states were trying so hard to reach out to Iran that Qatar even invited him to join in the annual summit of the Gulf Co-operation Council (the regional organisation representing the six Gulf Arab monarchies, which was founded in 1981 partly in response to the perceived threat of the Iranian revolution).

Although there is a long history of rivalry and competition between the Gulf Arab countries and Iran, relations have not always been so conflicted. Back in 2008, Ahmadinejad visited Bahrain and signed an agreement for Iran to supply Bahrain with natural gas. The deal, which seems almost unthinkable today, never materialised.

By contrast, Ahmadinejad’s most recent foray to the other side of the Gulf was in April, when he toured Abu Musa, an island occupied by Iran but claimed by the UAE. This prompted fury in the Gulf monarchies, where rulers saw it as a sign of Iranian expansionist tendencies, and were frustrated by the lack of reaction from their western allies (who were preparing for talks with Iran over the nuclear issue and who are not deeply engaged on the islands issue).

It is in Syria that the Saudi-Iranian confrontation has become the most pronounced and dangerous, but the two are competing for influence in the wider region. They back rival camps in Iraq, Lebanon, and to some extent Yemen and the Palestinian territories (though Hamas has always had some support in the Gulf and is now distancing itself from both Iran and Syria). They are also at odds over the treatment of Shia protesters in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia’s own eastern province. Saudi officials routinely suggest that Iran is fomenting the protests in both cases.

For its part, Iran’s interests seem to be best served by giving only moral support to the protesters, so it can sit back and watch its rivals challenged from within, without the kind of direct involvement that could spark retaliation.

Both Iran and Saudi Arabia are effective exploiters of “soft power”, making use of their various media channels and religious networks to try to discredit the other.

One of the disadvantages of this approach is that it is never quite clear how centralised the control of foreign policy really is. Another problem is that the Middle Eastern media are becoming increasingly sectarian – a trend that is worrying many people in the ethnically and religiously diverse countries of the Gulf.

Now, with the collapse of Kofi Annan’s mission to Syria, the Gulf Arab monarchies are becoming more open about their support for the Syrian opposition, including the armed Free Syrian Army. Saudi Arabia has hosted a variety of Syrian opposition visitors, from members of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood to Assad’s estranged uncle, Rifaat al-Assad and Manaf Tlass, a senior Syrian military officer who defected just a few weeks ago.

The latter visitors illustrate that Saudi Arabia is not only supporting the Islamist opposition; it has its own concerns about the rising regional influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose focus on electoral politics represents a major challenge to the Saudi model of partnership between clerics and hereditary rulers.

The UAE is also pursuing a delicate balancing act, as it is home to a number of Syrian National Council activists – who recently announced the defection of the Syrian ambassador to the UAE – but is extremely wary of the role the Muslim Brotherhood could play in its own territory, and is investigating around 50 imprisoned Islamist political activists who are accused of conspiring with foreign organisations.

Even before the Annan mission collapsed, the Saudi and UAE foreign ministers were expressing extreme frustration with what they see as international inaction over Syria. Saudi Arabia has never seemed particularly convinced by western diplomatic efforts; Kofi Annan did not visit Riyadh during his Syria mediation efforts, and neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran was included in the last “Friends of Syria” meeting.

Most indications point to further conflict rather than a diplomatic resolution. But in the highly personalised realm of Saudi politics, a personal invitation from the king is symbolically important.

In Lebanon, in 2008 and 2009, the confrontation between the Saudi-backed 14 March alliance and the Iranian-backed 8 March alliance occasionally looked like it could lead to renewed civil conflict. But there, the rival factions stepped back from the brink, negotiating power-sharing agreements before and after the 2009 elections.

This would be far harder to achieve in Syria, with its daily bloodshed and its asymmetry of forces, but the cost of conflict is high enough for any remaining diplomatic options to be worth exploring.

UN warns fighters in #Syria not to kill civilians

Russian president Vladimir Putin (left) greets UN envoy Kofi Annan at the start of a meeting concerning a peace plan for Syria at the Kremlin in Moscow yesterday. Clashes in Damascus between rebels and state forces raged for a third day, in the fiercest fighting to hit Syria’s seat of power since the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad began 17 months ago.Photograph: Sergei Karpukhin


MICHAEL JANSEN

UN HUMANITARIAN chief Valerie Amos yesterday warned combatants involved in the Syrian conflict to avoid loss of civilian life or face prosecution for war crimes as fierce fighting continued for the third day in Damascus.

Baroness Amos observed: “As the International Committee of the Red Cross has now described the situation as an armed conflict, international humanitarian law applies across Syria in areas where there is fighting.”

Shooting was reported in the capital near the central bank in Seven Springs Square, often the site of pro-regime demonstrations, and at the headquarters of the ruling Baath party in the al-Mazra’ah area. Firing erupted on Baghdad Avenue, and rebels claim to have shot down one of the helicopters overhead.

The army was said to have deployed artillery against rebel strongholds in the capital’s outskirts where dissidents established a presence many months ago. The escalation followed the declaration on Monday night by the rebel Free Syrian Army of “Damascus Volcano”, an all-out offensive against government troops. Rebel spokesman Col Qassim Saadeddine announced, “The battle for Damascus has begun.” A diplomat in Damascus said this operation has started ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan when anti-regime protesters can be expected to take to the streets.

This battle commenced on the southern edge of the capital and has spread to the northeast and centre. A main focus has been the Midan district, where troops have surrounded rebels and refuse to allow them to retreat to less densely populated areas. Shooting has been heard in Palestinian camps where rebels retreating from the besieged Tadamon quarter have sought refuge.

The rebels also announced they launched attacks on government troops in traditional hot spots Homs, Hama and Idlib, and threatened to block main internal and international routes. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, an influential component of the ex-patriate Syrian National Council, urged Syrians to seize “this historic moment” by giving support to the rebels. “Prepare to become soldiers in this decisive battle. You will secure victory with your own two hands,” stated the movement, outlawed in Syria since 1963.

The opening of the offensive has been timed to coincide with the UN Security Council’s consideration of a draft resolution, proposed by Britain, the US, France and Germany. It would extend the deployment of the UN monitoring mission in Syria for 45 days and place implementation of the peace plan proposed by UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan under chapter seven of the UN charter which authorises military action as well as sanctions if threats are posed to international peace and security.

Although the US says it favours sanctions not military action, Moscow distrusts Washington which used a similar resolution to lead Nato intervention in the Libyan conflict. During talks in Moscow with Mr Annan, Russian president Vladimir Putin pledged to “do everything” to support the Annan peace plan but would not back the western draft. Mr Annan, who warned the “crisis is in a key turning point”, said he hoped discussions would continue and send a message to Syria. Ahead of this encounter, Moscow declared its intention to veto the resolution. Russia has circulated its own draft extending the mandate of the monitors.

In spite of a last-minute appeal from UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, China is likely to support Russia in the vote, scheduled for today. China’s People’s Daily editorialised, “The life of Syria’s current political leadership can only be determined by the Syrian people.”

Assad Family Values #Syria

How the Son Learned to Quash a Rebellion From His Father

Islamism and the Syrian uprising #Syria

Posted By Nir Rosen  

James Clapper, the United States Director of National Intelligence, warned last month of al Qaeda taking advantage of the growing conflict in Syria. The Syrian regime and its supporters frequently claim that the opposition is dominated by al Qaeda-linked extremists. Opposition supporters often counter that the uprising is completely secular. But months of reporting on the ground in Syria revealed that the truth is more complex.

Syria’s uprising is not a secular one. Most participants are devout Muslims inspired by Islam. By virtue of Syria’s demography most of the opposition is Sunni Muslim and often come from conservative areas. The death of the Arab left means religion has assumed a greater role in daily life throughout the Middle East. A minority is secular and another minority is comprised of ideological Islamists. The majority is made of religious-minded people with little ideology, like most Syrians. They are not fighting to defend secularism (nor is the regime) but they are also not fighting to establish a theocracy. But as the conflict grinds on, Islam is playing an increasing role in the uprising.

Mosques became central to Syria’s demonstrations as early as March 2011 and influenced the uprising’s trajectory, with religion becoming increasingly more important. Often activists described how they had “corrected themselves” after the uprising started. Martyrs became important to a generation that had only seen martyrs on television from Iraq, Palestine, and Lebanon. “People got more religious,” one activist in Damascus’s Barzeh neighborhood explained, “they got closer to death, you could be a martyr so people who drank or went out at night corrected themselves.” Some Arab satellite news stations have also contributed to the dominance of Islamists by interviewing more of them and focusing on them as opposed to more secular opposition figures or intellectuals. In Daraa activists complained that satellite networks were marginalizing prominent leftists.

Clerics were influential from the beginning in much of the country, but their authority is not absolute. Sheikhs have often played a positive role in the uprising, enforcing discipline and exhorting armed and unarmed activists to act responsibly. One reason why Homs has not descended into Bosnia-like sectarian massacres is because of the strong influence of opposition sheikhs.

“Sheikhs have a role,” said a cleric active in the opposition in the cities of Hama and Latakia, “in an area where people are scared a sheikh in his sermon can encourage them to go out.” As a result many sheikhs have been arrested while others have fled the country. Opposition supporters are also vocal when they disapprove of a sheikh’s positions. In November, in the Tadamun area of Damascus, a sheikh at the Ali ibn Abi Talib mosque condemned demonstrations and spoke about conspiracies in language resembling that of the government. A friend stood up in disgust in the middle of the sermon and walked out. Others followed him spontaneously and began demonstrating. After five minutes security forces arrived and they all ran away. “It’s forbidden to pray in front of him,” my friend told me later that day, “either speak the truth or be quiet.”

In the Damascus suburb of Arbeen, opposition leaders spoke sardonically of their local clerics. “The sheikhs here all belong to security and the Baath party,” one leader there told me. “The sheikhs told us not to go out and not to watch the biased channels. We went out against the sheikhs, shouting down with this sheikh or that sheikh. There were no good sheikhs with the people here, either he was afraid or he was with the regime. The sheikhs described the youth as thugs.” Revolutionaries threatened Sheikh Hassan Seyid Hassan, Arbeen’s top cleric, saying they would break his car and burn his house and office. In a sermon he apologized for condemning the uprising.

One of the main causes for the first demonstrations in Arbeen was the demand for the release of 21 local young men arrested in 2006. The young men, and some were boys, had come under the influence of Salafi jihadist clerics and were blamed by the regime for an attempted attack on the state television headquarters. “Here the main reason we came out was to demand the release of our prisoners” one local leader said. “We are religious and that’s why we are oppressed.”

Near Harasta, in Duma, I met with Abu Musab, an insurgent commander. He claimed he had been fired from his job as an imam for “speaking the truth” and talking about dignity. The strict Hanbali school of Islam dominates Duma and not a single woman can be seen on its streets without her face fully concealed by a burqa. Piety was one of the reasons why Duma was so revolutionary, he told me. “A sheikh does not have to say fight Bashar,” he said, “he can just refer to a chapter from the Quran and everybody will understand. Because they are religious they have more motivation and ethics.” But he stressed that most people in Duma did not seek an Islamic state. According to Musab, he supported an armed struggle against the regime from the first day and most others only did after Ramadan. He took me to a funeral for two martyrs of the revolution, one of them an armed fighter. As the crowd of hundreds left they chanted, “The people want a declaration of jihad!”

Many of the names chosen for Friday demonstrations are religious in connotation and many of the insurgent groups who misleadingly call themselves the Free Syrian Army, have names that are particularly Sunni Muslim in nature. The insurgent groups’ names are increasingly Islamic and even Salafi in their tone, such as the “Abu Dujana Battalion,” the “Abu Ubeida Battalion,” the ”Muhajireen wal Ansar Battalion” and even a group named after Yazid, a divisive figure in Islamic history who is hated by Shiites but respected by hardline Sunnis (who do not like Shiites).

What about the Muslim Brotherhood (MB)? Syria saw MB inspired uprisings in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. In the 1980s a radical group that found the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (SMB) too moderate split off and called itself the Fighting Vanguard. They were responsible for much of the violence that was blamed on the Brotherhood that traumatizes Syrian society to this day, much as the regime’s attack on Hama where the armed Muslim Brothers concentrated also left permanent scars that have been reopened in the last year. SMB members fled into exile and remained active in the opposition, which also led them to dominate the Syrian National Council (SNC). During the administration of President George W. Bush the United States reached out to the SMB in order to undermine the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Within the SNC, the SMB is behaving in a very authoritarian fashion and is facing growing criticism from both secular and Islamist opposition. The divides in the SNC are not Islamist versus secular. The secularist SNC President Burhan Ghalioun walks with the SMB. Other Islamists like the Imad al Din al Rashid’s Syrian National Movement are hostile to the SMB.

The regime has sought to conflate the opposition with the SMB of the 1980s, knowing that if it succeeds it can legitimize dealing with them with violence but if it fights them on the political front it will lose. “The ideology of the Muslim Brothers has remained quite influential in Syria, but as an organization, they completely ceased to exist inside the country in the early 1980s,” Thomas Pierret, a lecturer in contemporary Islam at the University of Edinburgh, said. “A proof of that is that the Islamist cells dismantled by the authorities over the last decades were linked to the Islamic Liberation Party or to Jihadi networks, but never to the Muslim Brothers.” In reality popular mobilization does not require the orders of the SMB, but for some in the opposition the uprising is revenge for the 1980s and the SMB is indeed playing a role. Most Syrian supporters of the opposition associate the 1980s with a time of draconian regime repression and collective punishment while regime supporters and minorities associate it with sectarian violence and terrorism.

In January, I spoke with a knowledgeable official from a different national branch of the MB who was based in Beirut. “The revolution in Syria today has nothing to do with the MB of the 1980s,” he said, but he told me that the SMB was involved in the current uprising. Individual members of the SMB played a role organizing the uprising in Homs, Hama, and in the coastal areas, he said. The SMB and its Lebanese branch, the Jamaa Islamiya, were sending money and aid via Tripoli in Lebanon. They were also hosting families fleeing from Syria, providing them with food, clothing and shelter while sending aid to their relatives left behind in Syria. “The Jamaa Islamiya has a very clear loud position on Syria,” he said, “they are against the regime and supporting revolution. And the Brotherhood does not just support with words. It might be money and it might be some tools and facilitation. And if the Lebanese Brotherhood is doing it, it is with the cooperation of the Brotherhood of Syria.” The Jamaa Islamiya was playing a role via the SMB, he explained. “The Brotherhood shares the same school of thinking of Hassan al Banna,” he said, “so I hold the same ideas that a Lebanese, Jordanian, Yemeni, Libyan, Tunisian Brotherhood or even in Jakarta. Every group has the same thoughts. We share ideas and thoughts. We are an organization looking for a new era so we are organized and ready to deal with a new situation in the region. The Brotherhood has a huge responsibility on their shoulders. If they succeed they will have legitimacy to be leaders of Muslims and Arabs and if they fail they might lose their opportunity. We are preparing ourselves for 80 years. We are not dreaming we are dealing with reality.”

“The Brotherhood is not like they were in the past,” said one leader of the Homs Revolutionary Council (HRC) who receives money from them among many others. “There are Muslims Brothers in groups of two or three and they are giving support to people inside Syria. They are not organized like they were before.” Leaders of the SMB in Saudi Arabia do not have good communication with the SMB in other places. Abu Mohammed al Rifai, an SMB leader in Lebanon gives support to some groups in Homs and elsewhere. The SMB does not have cadres on the ground, nor does it have much ideological influence. Most people I spoke to admitted that their role was limited to sending money but they were not sending it as the SMB, only as individuals who happened to belong to the SMB. In Homs some leaders view their role as positive but they did not see it as the SMB acting as an organization, which it did not have the capacity to do anymore. Homs receives help only from members of the Syrian wing of the MB who are based in the Gulf, Lebanon, or Jordan. Most of the money has gone to aid and medical support. In late 2011, the SMB had a meeting in Saudi Arabia during which they decided against supporting the armed groups. As the SMB they did not want to be involved in this, perhaps as a result of their experience in the 1980s, but individual members of the SMB send money that is channeled to insurgent activities as well.

I met Syrian activists who met senior SMB leader Melhem al Drubi in Turkey, where he was giving money to activists. Members of the Drubi family who live in Saudi Arabia are also important financiers of the uprising. “We told him we want money for weapons when we met him in Turkey in May,” one activist told me. “He said no money for weapons this is peaceful revolution. We asked for money for hardship funds, he said we have people on the ground but we have not organized ourselves yet. He gave nobody that he met in Istanbul any money. He just wanted to know the situation on the ground. He wanted to know level of support for the Brotherhood. Now the Brotherhood controls a lot of access to money in Homs and the Damascus suburbs. But just because people take money from the Brotherhood does not mean they support it. The Brotherhood wants to improve and increase its name. They are not scary but they are trying to control. Some people are not happy about how the Brotherhood is financing on the ground. Some people who buy weapons are not ready to deal with the Brotherhood. The Brotherhood only gives certain people money for hardship or weapons.”

Abu Abdu, a field commander who deals with military and civilian elements of the opposition in the Damascus suburbs told me that he had received calls from people in Jordan, Turkey, London, and the United States who belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood. “People offer us money but there is a hidden agenda to it and we refuse it,” he said. “This is a popular revolution, I work for God and the nation. I come out against oppression.” He picked up his cigarette pack. “I’m not going to replace Marlboro with Gaullois.”

“The Brotherhood doesn’t scare me,” said one leading activist from the Ismaili sect. “They don’t have representation on the ground that can endanger democracy.” A Christian activist he worked with on delivering weapons and aid throughout the country agreed with the assessment, adding that, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” One prominent Druze activist in Damascus said, “I am not afraid of the Brotherhood. They have been outside, they became more secular. Syrian Islam is moderate and Sufi.” Sufi brotherhoods are mystical groups organized around a sheikh who is believed to have a personal connection to God. Sufism is very mainstream in Syria, since most of the country’s Muslim scholars have received some Sufi training and often specialize as Sufi sheikhs.

Many other members of the opposition are less sanguine about the role of the SMB. One young activist in Barzeh told me he did not want the Brotherhood. “I don’t want women to be completely covered up,” he said. “This is not nice.” But like many people in the Arab world, he associated the word ‘ilmani, or secular, with anti-religious, and as a result was also against Ghalioun. “I want something in the middle,” he said. An older opposition supporter in the same neighborhood told me he wanted a civilian Islamic government “like in Turkey,” he said, “but not Islam by force.” The Brotherhood made a mistake in the 1980s, he continued. While the SMB in Damascus was engaged in peaceful proselytization, the Brotherhood in Aleppo and Hama took up arms. “It’s a mistake to take up arms against a brutal regime. In reaction the regime thought anybody who prayed was in the MB. This is a revolution of the youth and it was good for the Brotherhood to deny that they are behind the revolution. The Brotherhood have no presence on the ground.”

Another Damascus activist worried that many demonstrations in the Damascus suburbs had Islamic slogans. Indeed in Harasta I heard songs about Muslims and infidels. In Duma and Sanamein I heard demonstrators calling for jihad while in Zamalka in evening demonstrations people prayed in the middle of a busy commercial street. The activist told me that in Homs’s Dir Baalbeh neighborhood, the Brotherhood’s slogan of “Islam is the solution” was raised. “In the last months the Brotherhood became strong on the ground,” he said. “Communists told me they won’t go out in demonstrations that say ‘God is great’ and religious things. A lot of demonstrations in Daraa, Homs, Idlib are led by clerics and it scares secular people.” He complained that the SMB chose the names for the Friday demonstrations. “‘So National Unity’ Friday became ‘Khalid bin al Walid’ [the early Muslim leader who conquered Syria in the 7th century] Friday and ‘We won’t Kneel’ Friday became ‘We Won’t Kneel Except before God.”

Many Syrians with ties to the Brotherhood fled in the 1980s. Now, like the Attasis of Homs and the Abazeeds of Daraa, they send money back home. Throughout Syria I heard concerns from the opposition that money from SMB members was ending up in the hands of the wrong people. In Homs some funds were going to former criminals or to armed groups who acted without consulting with the local civilian political leadership of the uprising. In Hama and Idlib I heard similar complaints.

“We don’t work with anybody,” said Khaled Nasrallah, a leader of an armed group operating in Hama and Idlib, “not with the Brotherhood. We are a popular revolution. They want to control you and we are nationalists. We won’t finish this oppression so somebody else will come and tell us what to do. We are worried about the future, after the revolution, worried about the Brotherhood or Salafis or other parties. We don’t want somebody to tell us what to do in the future.” A senior leader of the Homs Revolutionary Council told me “there is no organization called the Muslim Brotherhood inside Syria. This is the difference between Syria and other Arab countries. The sheikhs in Homs who have revolutionary role are Sufis. None of them belong to movements.”

In the Jabal Azawiya town of Fleifil people still recall the three times the Syrian army raided the area by helicopter and arrested locals. “They raided every village,” according to one local leader. “From 1980 to 1988 they would constantly raid the villages.” They also point to a massacre committed by the regime in the main square of Jisr al Shughur in 1980. In Idlib’s Jabal Azawiya I met Yusuf al Hassan, a powerful former cigarette smuggler who leads an armed group and has been fighting the regime since June. Hassan, who is said by other insurgent commanders to receive some help from Turkish military intelligence, crossed the border into Turkey and met with SMB Secretary General Riad al Shaqfa. But he didn’t trust the SMB, he told me, and as a result the SMB now opposed him as well. “I asked for five representatives from the whole area to distribute aid through them,” Hassan said. “The Brotherhood was against this. This was cause of my problems with the Brotherhood in Jabal Azawiya. The Brotherhood are not accepted among us, they are racist, thieves, corrupt. We are the middle Islam. They divided the revolution, sent money to a few people. People came to me and I gave weapons and bullets to everybody without discrimination. When our revolution got weaker in the summer four or five months ago, the Brotherhood intervention appeared.” A fighter from Jisr al Shughur agreed with him. “We are Muslims, not Muslim Brothers,” he said, provoking the laughter of other insurgents with us.

In rural Hama leaders of various armed groups resented a man called Abu Rayan who received help from the Brotherhood in Turkey and Jordan to fund his armed group. I met with him and other leaders of armed groups in a mountain safe-house bordering Hama and Idlib. Abu Rayan had a gray beard. He wore a pistol under his armpit. As we talked Abu Rayan sent a group of his men from his Abu Fida brigade to help men from Hama’s Salahedin brigade who were besieged in the city’s Hamidiya area. Other commanders resented him for not cooperating with them. Bassim, a commander from Hama told me that he had asked Abu Rayan for help in the past but had not received a single bullet. He only helped Hama city, the other leaders told me, while others cooperated as needed, including across the line into Idlib. Abu Rayan said he had met with Turkish intelligence. He was a vulgar man, whose cursing made the other men uncomfortable. “We kiss one thousand asses just so they can send us money for a satellite phone,” he complained. The other men told me he was a former drug dealer in Hama city. “It made me hate the Brotherhood even more that they support a man like this,” said a Sufi sheikh from rural Hama called Sheikh Omar Rahmun who also had an armed group which operated in rural Hama and Idlib.

The city of Hama was still a reservoir for the SMB, he told me, but the resistance was taking place in the rural areas surrounding it and Abu Rayan was not helping out the rural insurgency. “Abu Rayan doesn’t fight,” said the sheikh. “He is a leader. Abu Rayan gets help from the SMB but the people in his group don’t know this. Ninety percent of Abu Rayan’s men would leave if they knew he works with the SMB. We want the revolution to win. We want the people who get help not to put it in their pocket but to give it to the people in need. People have empty ammunition clips. Abu Rayan has money, we don’t.”

“The U.S. won with an alliance with the Brotherhood in Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt” he said. “America cooperates with the Brotherhood. But the alliance has to be studied. This alliance is failed. There was a long information war against the Brotherhood and it is now an expired product. It is being treated as bigger than its size on the ground. The Brotherhood does not have a presence on the ground but it gave some money and communication devices to some groups. They give you money now so they can ride on your shoulders in the future. After June or July groups and parties started to appear. ‘I am from this party or that party.’ Our disaster is the Brotherhood in particular. The Brotherhood don’t have future in Syria without coercion. In Syria one party cannot win over other parties. We refuse to work under any party. We don’t want a party that society doesn’t accept. We don’t want to people to be coerced. Syria is a Sufi society. With two beats of the of miz-har (a Sufi drum) you can get all of Syria behind you, but they won’t follow Salafis after fifty years.”

The word “Salafi” haunts the Syrian uprising. The regime has turned this conservative practice of Islam into a smear of the opposition, hoping to associate them with jihadist Salafis like those of al Qaeda in Iraq. In nearly every demonstration I attended opposition songs dismissed the notion that they were Salafis. But in Syria, as elsewhere in the Middle East, some practices associated with Salafis have become popularized even if people do not identify themselves as such. In part this is thanks to the influence of Saudi Arabia. And it is Syrians in Saudi Arabia who play a major role in financing the uprising, giving them additional influence. In four months traveling through Syria, I found Salafis to be a minority within the uprising, but nevertheless they play a growing role.

Last November, I first met one of the most powerful men in Damascus’s urban suburb of Harasta. Tough looking activists in tracksuits who arranged our meeting were contemptuous of the local opposition coordination committee. “The Sheikh,” or Abu Omar, was not from the committee, said one, “he is from the group that fears God.” The men explained to me that it was not the coordination committee that was in charge of Harasta, it was the “shabab,” the guys like them. Abu Omar was a thick man wearing a dish dasha and leather jacket. As we spoke over dinner, he asked me if I knew what a Salafi was. I said it was somebody who followed the righteous companions of the Prophet Mohammed. “It’s somebody devoted in his religion who doesn’t stray to one side or another,” he said. “Now they use Salafi to mean al Qaeda or terrorist. The Syrian regime is trying to persuade the West that it is fighting terror like the West,” adding that “they failed.” We sat in a room full of religious books and talked about the very active armed opposition in Harasta. “Violence has bred violence,” he said. Abu Omar explained that their struggle against the regime was a jihad, but without foreign military intervention (and he did not care from where), the regime would not fall.

Abu Abdu, a military leader in Harasta confided that many people hoped there would be a declaration of jihad against the regime. “But they don’t want to be accused of being Salafis.” He did not expect such a declaration because the regime was not led by infidels and there were many Muslims in it, while the opposition also feared being accused of sectarianism.

In the Ghab area of rural Hama I spent many hours sitting with insurgents and local sheikhs. “We don’t meet in mosques because the revolution is Islamic but because mosques are the center of gathering for people,” said sheikh Amer, an imam in the town of Qalat Mudhiq. Men in the room dismissed the government’s accusations that they were Salafis. “Some of these guys drink,” one of them told me. “Our religion Islam is tolerant,” one said, “we won’t be like them,” meaning Alawites. “There will be no mercy for the Alawites who carried weapons or were shabiha,” the sheikh told me.

In March, Sheikh Amer gave a sermon about speaking right in front of an oppressive sultan. A demonstration followed the prayer. Syrian security called him in and asked why he was inciting people. Sheikh Amer is now a spiritual and moral advisor to the armed men. I was told, “he teaches the guys what is permitted and forbidden, values, don’t harm Christians and Alawites, don’t steal.”

I drove through many “liberated” villages where insurgents had their own checkpoints and patrols. I met Abu Ghazi, a self-proclaimed “moderate Salafi” and the representative of the Ghab coordination committee on the Hama Revolutionary Council. Abu Ghazi was respected by other militia commanders in the Ghab. He was in his 30s and had a short beard with no mustache. His house had just been attacked by regime security forces for the third time and destroyed. He complained that the committee was neglected. “The Brotherhood support their group, Salafis support their group, secularists support their group. I am buying a satellite phone with my own money. I have a farm, so I make money from that. People are selling fish so I can buy bullets for the guys. We have a national agenda. I don’t want the agenda of the Brotherhood or Salafis. I want a national agenda, even if I am a Salafi. I know the situation here better than somebody in Europe, Saudi, or UAE. I don’t want a sectarian war here. We would get a lot of help if we gave our area to one current. The Salafi jihadi current offered help. Salafi jihadis have a lot of money but need an oath of loyalty. The man who gives weapons doesn’t give them for free.” He feared chaos in the future if such parties gained influence. “I want law and order,” he said.

I was in the Ghab when Syrian security forces raided nearby villages. Hundreds of fighters from village militias in the area gathered on the mountains above in case they were needed. Among them were insurgents from the Saad bin Muadh brigade, led by a Salafi called Abu Talha, who had links with groups outside Syria. “Abu Talha’s group only works for themselves,” a local militia commander complained. “They don’t share and don’t cooperate much.” Abu Talha was originally from the village of Tweina in al Ghab. Like many Syrian Salafis he had spent time in the Sednaya prison. “They are all graduates of Sednaya,” he said.

A Salafi commander of an armed group called Abu Sleiman united the area against him. “When people heard he wanted to make his own emirate all the mountain turned against him,” said a local village militia leader. “We are all brothers from here to Daraa. We are revolutionaries and that’s it. No parties.”

“Salafis like Abu Suleyman in Jabal Azawiya offer to loan you weapons for specific operations,” other insurgents told me. But they had refused. Abu Suleiman was a former drug dealer, they said, who became a Salafi after spending time in the Sednaya prison. “Abu Sleiman had conditions for helping others,” said a fighter from Kafr Ruma village in Jabal Azawiya.  “He said ‘be under my emirate and give me back the weapons when the operation is over.’ But we won’t remove Bashar to be under somebody else. So Abu Sleiman is rejected by the mountain. We expelled him, he was extreme.” He was now in Turkey, they told me.

In quiet evenings the fighters of Jabal Azawiya gathered for large meals in different houses. One night I was with them for an immense tray of knafeh as they watched the nightly talk show with the sectarian exiled opposition cleric Adnan al Arur. He was very popular in the region, they said. Al Arur, whose anti-Shiite rants were divisive long before the uprising in Syria and whose name is often chanted in demonstrations, famously warned Alawites who participate in the repression that they would be chopped and that their flesh would be fed to dogs. Arur has not often spoken about Alawites and his popularity does not stem from his sectarianism but because he has religious credentials and speaks in an angry colloquial voice when praising the demonstrators every day. But his popularity has encouraged secular Sunni and minorities to prefer the regime.

“We are grateful to the Salafi fighters,” said the Sufi Sheikh Omar Rahmun who led an armed group in Hama. “But I am against canceling people, I am against canceling you and you canceling me. Of the fighters, Salafis are less than one percent.” One night Sheikh Omar led a group of fighters in a Sufi style of singing called a Mulid. “Its good that Sufis raise their head a little bit so people won’t think the revolution is Salafi,” one of the local fighters told me. The role of Sufi clerics in the opposition should not come as a surprise. I have seen Sufi insurgent groups in Falluja and other parts of Iraq and as well as armed Sufis in Somalia and Afghanistan.

Further north, rural Aleppo has hundreds of fighters in the insurgency. In the town of Anadan, slogans for “the Faruq revolution” are written on walls. Faruq is another name for Omar, a figure revered by Sunnis. On other walls people sent their greetings to Omar as well as Abu Bakr and Uthman, who are also revered by Sunnis. Many men from the area volunteered to fight in Iraq. While most of the activist leaders in Anadan have university degrees in subjects like chemistry, mathematics and Arabic, all of them are Islamists and some are Salafis.

A 48-year-old man called Abu Jumaa leads the uprising there. His son spent one year in an Air Force intelligence prison, accused of belonging to the jihadist group Jund Asham and enduring severe torture. Before the revolution many of Anadan’s youths were accused of Islamic extremism and arrested. One Friday in February demonstrators shouted, “the people want a declaration of jihad!”

Abu Jumaa arranged for the armed and unarmed needs of the revolution in Anadan. In his house he has Kalashnikovs, shotgun,s and improvised explosive devices. One of the spiritual leaders of the revolution in Anadan is a sheikh called Yusuf who is not a Salafi. The Muslim Brotherhood still has influence in Anadan, which suffered in the 1980s during the Brotherhood’s uprising and many residents were banned from state employment.

Armed locals in Anadan claim that security forces have not raided the town “because if they come security will be massacred.” Non-Sunnis were removed from the military security headquarters in Anadan so that they would be less likely to be killed by insurgents. One Friday morning in December opposition activists tore down a large picture of Assad in the main square. One of the guards in the nearby security headquarters cheered them on. By February, the security forces had been expelled by the insurgents from Anadan and its men were working on helping their brethren in Aleppo city.

Another pan-Islamist movement, Hizbultahrir, or the Party of Liberation, is also reappearing. In Sanamein, the second largest town in Daraa province, I met with Abu Khalid, one of the political leaders of the uprising there who also often led demonstrations. Sanamein was a conservative town. Most people prayed. All its sheikhs were Shafii, there were no Sufis, and it seemed as though everybody loved sheikh Adnan al Arur. Abu Khalid belonged to Hizbultahrir, a utopian pan-Islamic organization committed to reestablishing the caliphate through peaceful means. Despite his affiliation with this movement Abu Khalid was against the involvement of any political party. “I am against giving religious tone to the revolution.” He added, “It’s a popular revolution.”

In January, leaders of armed groups in Homs including those from the opposition’s Faruq Brigade sent messages to the Muslim Brotherhood complaining that the Brotherhood was smuggling weapons into Homs but hiding them or burying there. “They avoid to use their weapons now to fight and we are afraid that they want us to defeat the regime and then they will use their arms when we are tired.” The Brotherhood had no people on the ground, all leaders in Homs agreed, but there were signs they were trying to recruit from other groups. The discovery that they were hiding weapons had created a crisis of trust. The utopian group Hizbultahrir has long had a presence in Homs. Many of its members were arrested over the years, but it was not a violent group and hence they spent less time in prison than others. They have recently made their presence felt in Homs once again, building a network and financing some armed groups.

In late December, some men belonging to Hizbultahrir tried to raise the black and white flag of Islam in the Inshaat neighborhood of Homs. They also distributed leaflets in Inshaat saying it is religiously prohibited to deal with the Americans or ask for support from NATO, people should only depend on God. The local political opposition committee in Inshaat told them they did not want these things in their neighborhood. Likewise HRC activists stopped the Hizbultahrir men from raising the flags, explaining that only flags approved by the HRC could be raised. The HRC leadership warned their people in Inshaat to be careful because Islamists could use this incident to say the HRC is against Islam. But others complained to the HRC about their refusal to raise the flag of Islam.

“Islamists are going so fast,” a leader of the HRC told me. “They are not waiting. A few days ago Hizbultahrir put up flag of Islam, but everybody knows that this slogan is for Hizbultahrir. Hizbultahrir started recruiting, they were arrested in previous years, and now they started again building their networks. They started working with armed groups. Financing them. Other Islamists also started working, they believe the regime is about to fall and they started building their relationships.”

“This generation is enlightened and was not raised in Salafi education, unlike Egypt,” said one leading activist from Homs. Salafi satellite television stations like Safa and Wesal are popular in Syria because Syrians were deprived of being religious for years, he told me. “Syria was the kingdom of silence for a long time,” he said. “Arur was the first to speak with this courage. People don’t like Arur because he is Salafi or Sufi. I watched him in the beginning. He was a sheikh and the words that came from him were trusted and he spoke with courage.”

He spoke of Syria’s most senior cleric Said Ramadan al Buti. “If Butti spoke in one hundred degrees less than Arur he would be more popular than Arur,” he said. “Buti’s thoughts are good, if he was with the revolution and spoke then Bashar would have left a long time ago. We want a man who is enlightened and a thinker. People liked Burhan Ghalioun at first. They stopped liking him not because he was secular but because they feel like he didn’t deliver. I respect him because he is enlightened and stood with the people. The people are more simple than the parties, the want a program, to eat to live freely, not to live under oppression and security member will mess up the neighborhood, and they want something tangible and something to be proud of. This generation is not Muslim Brothers, Hizbultahrir, or Salafi. They want somebody who will serve them. But we can’t deny that this is an Islamic society so somebody could take advantage of Islam for electoral purposes.”

“Some people are disappointed,” said another leader of the HRC. “And don’t expect anything from the Arab League which is a League of Arab dictators and the security council did nothing for us so some Islamists think we have to depend only on god and call on jihad. Those depressed people now blame the sheikhs because sheikhs do not call for jihad and people try to pressure sheikhs to make call for jihad.” But he disagreed with this. “Why should we announce jihad? Just to give regime excuse to kill us?”

The Syrian uprising’s reliance on outside help will only increase radicalization. In January officials from the HRC complained to me that the live broadcasts of Homs demonstrations shown on networks like al Jazeera Mubashar were controlled by a Salafi, Abu Yasir, who falsely claimed he was in Homs and was causing problems for them. During a January sit-in in the Homs neighborhood of Khaldiyeh the HRC tried to arrange for a senior member and founder of their council to speak to protesters live from his exile in Jordan. This member was a Sufi sheikh from the Bab Assiba neighborhood who had played a key role from the first days of the uprising encouraging people to demonstrate and maintaining discipline over the armed groups. “We wanted him to talk to the crowd because the people of Homs love him and they will obey him,” an HRC official told me. “But the guy on the laptop said first I want to ask the coordinator (Abu Yasir) and the coordinator said no we don’t want him, we want Arur, so Arur spoke to the crowd.” He complained that in the HRC too many of the media coordinators were in Saudi Arabia.

Unlike places I visited in Somalia, Iraq, and Afghanistan, in opposition strongholds the residents do not live in fear of Salafis and there are no armed Salafis imposing themselves on the population. But the alleged suicide bombings of December and January in Damascus and February in Aleppo do raise the possibility that the regime’s propaganda will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. “The more time the revolution extends the Salafis will be stronger,” one activist told me. “Each month that goes by the movement turns more Islamic and more radical Islamic. If it had succeeded in April or May of 2011 there would be more civil society.”

The Americans and Europeans assess that the regime was not behind the attacks. A western official based in Damascus said the bombings were both against “known staging grounds for mukhabarat and shabiha. Where they gather and get their assignments. Our defense attache used to see hundreds of mukhabarat in front of the branch buildings every Friday morning.” A senior western diplomat told me, “The car bombs are a murky matter. If my time in Algiers and Baghdad is any guide, we may never know the full story.” Before the December 23 attacks a senior western diplomat told me that al Qaeda was in Syria and he was very worried they might conduct attacks. Syria was a major source of jihadists and suicide bombers in Iraq, as even Syrian security officials often admit. It was a transit point for other foreign fighters going to Iraq. One senior western diplomat worried that veterans of the Anbar campaign would use their expertise in Syria.

Residents of Daraa, the suburbs of Damascus, or other opposition strongholds feel like they live under occupation. Opposition supporters talk about “occupied” or “liberated” areas. Opposition strongholds that are “occupied” are surrounded and divided by checkpoints. Security and soldiers demand identity cards from passers by, ask men to get out of their vehicles, enter bus and check the identity cards of all men on the bus, conduct armed patrols through neighborhoods, kick down doors, and arrest military age men. I was reminded of the feeling I had in Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, and southeast Turkey. While security and soldiers in Syria are not foreign, they are not local either and often have an Alawite accent. It is enough to create a sense of occupation. Occupation is a major cause of suicide attacks. On Fridays, which is when the suicide attacks occurred, security men gather in large groups at the same places every week so they can chase demonstrators, beat them, and shoot at them. They are a tempting target, easy and unprotected. While Syria is indeed a security state, its security apparatus has been overwhelmed lately and it is very easy to smuggle anything or anybody into and around the country.

One colonel from the political security branch complained that before their primary job was to prevent al Qaeda activity but now they allocated all their resources to repressing activists and responding to the armed opposition. Between 2005 and 2008, while I was researching my book “Aftermath” jihadi Salafis in Jordan and Lebanon from the Zarqawi network told me the final battle would be in Sham, the classical name for Syria. They hated Alawites. They are an experienced bunch who would support suicide bombings against security forces working for a regime they could describe as infidel who attacked people coming out of mosques. As the crackdown increases, as the local opposition’s sense of abandonment by the outside world increases, and the voices calling for jihad get louder, there will likely be more radicalization.