#Syria Some rebels wonder if Syrian troops’ poor use of tanks, helicopters is intentional

Syria

A destroyed tank overlooks the main highway on June 17, 2012, running through Rastan, Syria from Damascus to Aleppo. | Austin Tice/MCT

The Syrian military, whose advantage in heavy equipment has been emphasized repeatedly by critics of the government of President Bashar Assad, rarely uses its tanks and helicopters effectively in combat against rebel forces, a shortcoming so consistent that it raises the question of whether some pilots and troops may be intentionally missing when they target rebel positions.

Weeks of observation of Syrian military operations while traveling with rebel forces leave the impression that the Syrian army is unfamiliar with modern military tactics. It rarely engages rebel forces directly and appears instead to rely on poorly aimed and random fire to intimidate its opponents. Helicopters observed in northern and central portions of the country fly at an altitude that prevents their effective tactical employment.

On Thursday, a Syrian air force pilot, reportedly on a training mission, flew his MiG-21 jet fighter to Jordan and asked for political asylum. It was the first high-profile defection from the air force, though hundreds of soldiers have joined the rebel cause. The pilot, who was identified as Col. Hassan Hammadeh, made no public statement after his defection.

There is no way to know whether the inept use of heavy weaponry is the result of poor training, incompetence or intentional. Some rebels, however, say they believe at least some of the erratic military actions are expressions of sympathy with the rebel cause by Sunni Muslims who are serving in the country’s armed forces.

One rebel fighter who asked to be identified only as Mahmoud, who served as an air traffic controller during his mandatory military service in the early 1980s, said that most pilots are Sunnis. Assad is an Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. The anti-Assad uprising has been driven largely by anger at perceived unfair treatment of the Sunni majority by the Alawite minority.

Mahmoud said that because most pilots are Sunni, the government is wary of trusting them. He suggested that some pilots might be missing intentionally.

The Syrian military’s advantage in heavy equipment – tanks, armored personnel carriers and helicopters – has been a persistent theme of rebel sympathizers for months as they sought international agreement to impose a no-fly zone over Syria and provide weapons and ammunition to the rebels.

As recently as March, the Syrian military seemed to be able to use its better equipment to gain an advantage over the rebels, pushing them out of the Baba Amr district of Homs in February and from many other urban areas in a fierce campaign undertaken before a U.N.-brokered cease-fire was scheduled to go into effect April 12.

In the weeks since, however, rebel forces have received fresh weapons and ammunition and have established safe zones in northern and central Syria where they operate largely unimpeded by the Syrian military, whose lack of tactical knowhow is glaring, even in the face of rebel units whose own organization and coordination are poor.

The tactics employed by helicopters observed in the past few weeks are a case in point. 

Identified from photographs by an experienced American attack helicopter pilot as Russian-made MI-17s, which are designed both for transporting troops and cargo and for use as an attack aircraft, the helicopters typically fly in slow circles at altitudes between 1,500 and 2,000 feet. They fire unguided rockets and guns at apparently random or nonexistent targets and do not appear to employ guided missiles.

To hit either people or a moving target, a helicopter needs to be diving at an altitude of 300 to 800 feet, according to the American pilot, who responded to questions by email but asked to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to discuss Syrian or American military practices. The American pilot said that from altitudes above 1,000 feet, striking a moving target with rockets or guns would be a challenge even for a pilot who had trained against moving targets. He doubted that Syrian pilots receive such training.

Remaining at such high altitudes does have one advantage: It puts the helicopters out of range of rebels trying to down them with rifle and machine-gun fire.

“On the first day of fighting, everyone shot at them, with Dushkas and rifles,” said Mohammed Fido, a rebel fighter who said he had participated in significant fighting two weeks ago in the city of Qusayr, near the border with Lebanon. A Dushka is a Russian-made heavy machine gun. “On the second day, some of us shot at them, others did not. By the third day, nobody bothered to shoot at the helicopters. We learned.”

The Syrian military also deployed helicopters during four of five days of heavy fighting earlier this month in the northern town of Kafer Zaita. But sustained attacks against a concentrated force of 600 or more fighters resulted in only two rebel casualties, one killed and the other wounded.

During the battle, a rebel commander named Shahm attempted to draw a helicopter away from the main rebel force by baiting it with a truck-mounted Dushka. One helicopter gave chase, pursuing the black truck into the open countryside and expending significant machine-gun fire and at least three rockets. The truck traveled about six miles to the nearby town of Khan Sheikhoun, arriving unscathed before hiding in a garage.

Syrian military use of tanks and armored personnel carriers also lacks tactical skill. Contrary to standard military doctrine, Syrian armor frequently advances into contested urban zones without the accompanying support of ground troops. This leaves the armor vulnerable to rebel gunners, equipped with rocket-propelled grenades, who fire at the tanks and then quickly retreat out of the tanks’ line of sight.

Mohammed Idris, a rebel captain who said he battled government forces for nearly a month during the February assault on the Homs neighborhood of Baba Amr, said that the tanks sometimes advanced with infantry but more often advanced alone, or shelled contested areas from a distance of several kilometers. He said that when tanks advanced alone the rebels were often able to destroy them using rocket-propelled grenades. T-72 tanks, the type predominantly used by the government, are vulnerable to RPG strikes against the turret, treads and rear engine area.

During the Kafer Zaita fighting, unaccompanied armor was repeatedly driven back by barrages of RPG fire. Two armored personnel carriers were observed parked alone in a vulnerable intersection, but they retreated before rebel fighters were able to react.

Fighters in Houla, the site of an alleged massacre on May 25, showed video they said was taken in the past week of two tanks firing shells at houses from a hill approximately half a mile outside the town. Homes in the city near the remaining government checkpoints showed significant signs of damage that appeared to be from tank cannon and machine-gun fire. But though the fighters said the shelling had killed nearly 40 people in Houla since the massacre, during that same time government forces have been driven from the town center and are now relegated to positions on the town’s periphery.

Tice, a McClatchy special correspondent, served seven years in the U.S. Marine Corps as an infantry officer. During his deployment in Afghanistan, he served for seven months as an air attack controller, guiding combat aircraft from forward positions.


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#Syria rebels gaining ground, strength

BEIRUT — An increasingly effective Syrian rebel force has been gaining ground in recent weeks, stepping up its attacks on government troops and expanding the area under its control even as world attention has been focused on pressuring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to comply with a U.N. cease-fire.

The loosely organized Free Syrian Army now acknowledges that it is also no longer observing the truce, although rebel commanders insist they are launching attacks only to defend civilians in the wake of concerns generated by two recent massacres in which most of the 186 victims were women and children.

The rebels say they are acquiring access to ammunition and funding that had been in short supply a few months ago, streamlining their structures to improve coordination and steadily eroding the government’s capacity to control large swaths of the country.

On Saturday, two neighborhoods in the central city of Homs that have come under the sway of the Free Syrian Army were bombarded by government forces in a further sign that the chances of imposing a cease-fire soon remain slim.

Residents cowered in basements as shells slammed repeatedly into the city, sending clouds of smoke billowing into the sky, according to videos posted online.

The increased activity comes as an international effort to aid the Free Syrian Army quietly gathers pace. Although the rebels insist they are still not being helped by foreign countries, they say they now have ample access to money from Syrian opposition figures and organizations outside the country and are using it to purchase supplies on a revived black market inside Syria.

U.S. officials and Syrian opposition figures said last month that a discreet effort by Arab gulf states to channel funds and weapons to the rebels — an undertaking the United States is helping to coordinate — had begun to gear up. The rebels’ apparent progress suggests that the assistance is having an effect, driving the dynamic toward a deepening conflict and perhaps intensifying pressure on the government to make concessions, even as world powers continue to rule out military intervention, analysts say.

The lightly armed rebels, equipped mostly with assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and some mortars, are still a long way from being able to inflict defeat on the superior Syrian army. They are also far from achieving the capabilities of Libya’s rebels, who quickly seized control of a large chunk of territory and a sizable arsenal.

The Syrian rebels “are never going to be capable of driving on Damascus and driving out the regime,” said Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency official who is now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. But, he said, with their repeated hit-and-run attacks on Syrian outposts and convoys, it is clear that “they’re increasing pressure on the regime, increasing attrition and increasing defections.”

“They’re looking stronger to me, and better,” White said. “People have been calling them a ragtag force, and I just don’t think that’s accurate anymore. I would describe them as an increasingly capable guerrilla force.”

The rebels are also gaining confidence.

“Every day we control more territory, every day we have more defections, and we are having better organization in our ranks,” said Maj. Sami al-Kurdi, a spokesman for the Homs Military Council, one of the new military structures that are being established around the country. “The regime now controls only the territory under its tanks, and the evidence is that they don’t dare step out of their tanks.”

Growing effectiveness

Verifying such claims is difficult because the Syrian government restricts access to journalists. But military experts who monitor the evolving conflict say they have detected a significant uptick in the number of videos of rebel attacks posted online.

The rebels also say they are inflicting heavy casualties on government troops, and though confirming that is impossible, the official Syrian Arab News Agency has recently reported a growing number of deaths. In the past 10 days, 234 members of the security forces killed in the violence have been buried at honorary military funerals, according to a tally of the reports — a record 57 of them Saturday.

The intensified fighting of the past two weeks offers further evidence of the rebels’ growing strength. The Free Syrian Army said it overran three government positions in the northern province of Idlib last week, and there have been battles in areas previously untouched by the violence, such as the rural area north of Aleppo.

The government is meanwhile escalating its use of force in response to the rebels’ gains. Saturday’s attacks against the Homs neighborhoods of Khaldiyeh and Qusoor were preceded by a sustained bombardment of the southwestern city of Daraa. A total of 53 people were killed nationwide in government attacks, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an opposition group.

But after driving rebels from strongholds in the Baba Amr district of Homs and several Idlib towns in March, the government has since seemed unable to press home the advantage. Repeated efforts to dislodge the Free Syrian Army from the provincial Homs towns of Rastan and Qusair have failed, and a major offensive launched last week against a previously unnoticed rebel stronghold in the town of Haffa, northeast of Latakia, faltered despite intense shelling and the deployment of combat helicopters.

The government still has the capacity to use overwhelming force against rebel strongholds, but it “can’t bring force to bear everywhere at the same time,” said Amr al-Azm, a professor of history at Shawnee State University in Ohio who is active in the Syrian opposition.

“They can go in and suppress an area, but as soon as they leave it, it is out of their control,” he said.

The result is that many parts of northern and central Syria have effectively fallen under the sway of the rebels, said Joseph Holliday, a researcher who tracks Free Syrian Army activity for the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

“They’re making it really hard for the regime to move around, for them to get out of their little checkpoints that they’re barricaded into,” said Holliday, a veteran of the Iraq war who compared the predicament of Syrian forces to that of U.S. troops in Iraq during the height of the fighting there. “We were pinned down. We couldn’t get around,” he said.

Signs of cohesion

Rebel commanders credit the growing demoralization of the regular army, in part, for their performance. Defections continue at a steady rate and troops are weary after nearly 15 months of continuous deployment in the effort to suppress the rebellion, they say.

And though they deny receiving foreign help, the rebels say the money they are receiving now is enabling them to buy more weapons on the thriving black market.

“We are getting weapons from dealers who are very active in Syria now,” said Col. Aref Hammoud, a spokesman for the Free Syrian Army in southern Turkey. Rebels are also seizing more weapons in attacks on government forces, he said.

In some areas, such as Hama, Free Syrian Army commanders have started to pay fighters stipends of $50 to $100 a month, in apparent fulfillment of a pledge made at a Friends of Syria conference in April.

In other places, commanders say they are receiving no help, a reminder that the Free Syrian Army is still a highly fragmented force, a concept more than a structure, whose leadership, based in a refugee camp in Turkey, exerts only scant control over the many small rebel bands that have sprung up around the country.

Holliday says he has counted 300 armed groups operating in Syria, though he suspects the number might be closer to 100 once name changes and overlapping chains of command are taken into account.

An effort to organize many of those groups into regional military councils does appear to have instilled a greater sense of cohesion, he said.

“It’s the most encouraging organizational effort I have seen,” he said. “But there’s still a lot of work to do.”