Russia denies ‘#Syria regime falling’ remarks

Foreign ministry says deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov did not say rebels were on course to oust Assad regime.

Russia has denied that its deputy foreign minister said that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad was losing control of his country. 

The Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday Mikhail Bogdanov did not say that ”an opposition victory can’t be excluded”.

Bogdanov says Syrian opposition may be victorious

The statement said Bogdanov was simply citing the stance of the Syrian opposition while giving a speech on Thursday.

“We would like to remark that he [Bogdanov] has made no statements or special interviews with journalists in the last days,” Alexander Lukashevich, the ministry spokesman said in a statement on Friday.

Lukashevich confirmed that the hearing with the Social Chamber, where Bogdanov’s comments were recorded, had taken place but said Bogdanov’s remarks focused on Moscow’s stance on the crisis. 

“Bogdanov reiterated Russia’s position there is no alternative to a political solution in Syria, based on the final 
communique of the Action Group which was approved by consensus at a ministerial meeting in Geneva,” the statement said. 

In what analysts said were the clearest sign that Moscow was preparing for possible defeat of its ally, Bogdanov said: “One must look the facts in the face. The regime and government in Syria is losing control … Unfortunately, a victory of the Syrian opposition cannot be ruled out.”


The comments came on the same day that NATO chief also said that he believed Assad’s regime was nearing “collapse”.
The US seized on Bogdanov’s comments, saying Russia is “waking up to the reality” and analysts viewed the diplomat’s statement as Russia’s attempt to begin positioning itself for Assad’s eventual defeat.

‘Weapons of terror’

Anders Fogh Rasmussen also condemned the alleged use by Assad’s forces of Scud missiles to attack rebels.

“I think the regime in Damascus is approaching collapse,” he told reporters after a meeting with the prime minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, at the military alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.

“I think now it is only a question of time.”

Rasmussen said the reported use of Scud missiles by the Syrian government showed “utter disregard” for the lives of Syrian people. 

Scud missiles “are weapons of terror,” said Riad Kahwaji, founder of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA).

Aaraba Idriss, former first lieutenant who defected 10 months ago, said members of his former battalion told him they fired five Scud missiles for the first time on Monday from their location in Nasiriyeh on the highway between Damascus and the central Syrian city of Homs, according to the AFP news agency. 

Idriss said the “Golan-1 missiles were either Russian-made or Russian modified” and had a range of up to 300km.

Syria’s foreign ministry has denied using Scud missiles against rebels and called the statements ”biased and conspiratorial rumours”.

“It is known that Scuds are strategic, long-range missiles and are not suited for use against armed terrorist gangs,” the ministry said

10/12/2012 - #Syria - Damascus - Al Qaboun - Regime Sniper Waits at Barrier

FSA targeting al-Assad regime air bases - Sources - #Syria

Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat – Leading sources in the Free Syrian Army [FSA] have announced that battalions stationed in the Rif Dimashq governorate have “gained control of most of the air defense bases in the governorate”, adding “operations continues to gain control of all military air bases in the region”.

A well informed FSA source, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that the FSA had gained control of Aqraba military air base, which is located between Damascus International Airport and the city of Damascus. Aqraba air base is reportedly where the al-Assad regime military helicopters overseeing the district of Damascus and the surrounding area are stationed.

The sources claimed that the FSA gained control of Aqraba air base “after violent battles with regime forces along the road to the air base and the surrounding villages of al Ghouta al-Sharqiya”.

He added that the rebel brigades were able to “breach the fortifications of the air base despite artillery and rocket fire targeting their location”.

This development comes shortly following the announcement of FSA control of Marj Sultan air base last week. Syrian opposition brigades managed to enter and take control of Marj Sultan air base, which became the first military air base in Rif Dimashq governorate to fall into the hands of the opposition.

Other sources confirmed that the military airports “have considerable military strength and protective forces”, adding that the next key battle “will be for the Sayeda Zeinab military air base, which is also home to al-Assad regime helicopter gunships”. However, according to the sources, the strategic importance of this particular airport lies “in its runway, which is more than 3km long. This allows for the takeoff and landing of Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets”.

The Rif Dimashq governorate is home to 6 military air bases; Marj Sultan and Aqraba, which are now controlled by the opposition, Sayeda Zeinab, which “the FSA intends to attack as soon as possible” according to sources, in addition to Mezzeh military air base in al-Ghouta al-Gharbiya, and Damir and Nasiriyah air bases which have been used by the regime’s helicopters extensively throughout the current Syrian crisis.

In this regard, prominent sources in the FSA claimed that rebel forces were now in control of “most” air defense bases located in Rif Dimashq, of which there are 11 in total, following yesterday’s announcement that the FSA had gained control of Air Defense Brigade 22 in al Ghouta al Sharqiya.

The source pointed out that “all types of air defense in Rif Dimashq are now under our control, including air missile defense systems, radars and fixed and mobile missile systems which have now become operable”. He added that these weapons will be put into action “imminently.”

The source explained that these systems “will be used to monitor and respond to the regime’s military aircraft as soon as our air defense specialists arrive”.

Sources also revealed that it has been possible to seize control of these sensitive military systems and sites “after the headquarters of the air defense leadership fell into the hands of the rebels”. This headquarters, commonly known as Brigade 82, was responsible for various radar apparatus and air defense systems throughout Damascus and the surrounding area. The sources indicated that the opposition brigades “managed to seize two sophisticated radar devices that were found at the headquarters, in addition to surface-to-air missiles and short and medium range surface-to-surface missiles”.

Sources also told Asharq Al-Awsat that the regime’s forces now only control two air defense sites in Rif Dimashq, “one located south east of Harran al-Awamid, near Damascus International Airport, which is a very sophisticated air defense base, including espionage stations”. As for the second site, “this is located on Mount Kassioun”. The sources went on to say that the latter site is located specifically above Masaken Barzeh district and “includes surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missile systems, mounted and ready to launch”.

At the same time, the FSA are currently conducting operations to gain control of two military air bases in Aleppo and Deir al-Zour. Syrian opposition websites quoted activists as saying that the FSA “has been continuing its siege on Deir al-Zour military air base for several days”, and likewise announced that “a battle has begun for control of the Meng military air base in Aleppo”. Clashes are also ongoing between the regime’s forces and the FSA in the region of Neirab and around the vicinity of Neirab military air base, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

07/12/2012

01/12/2012 - #Syria - Aleppo - Heavy fighting between FSA and regime troops (compilation)

30/11/2012 - #Syria - Massive destruction in Aleppo by regime bombardments

#Syria Analysis: A threatened regime cuts the internet

Nov 29/12 By James Milner/EA

Why has the regime cut the internet? For a possible answer, one has to understand the duality of the insurgency.

The insurgency has many dimensions, but —- to oversimplify it —- two are notable. The first is what we see in Deir Ez Zor or Aleppo or Idlib Province —- a semi-functional military apparatus, either coordinated at the brigade level or on a larger scale. These units seek military victories, destroying the regime’s resources and capturing bases, equipment, and territory. This element to the Free Syrian Army has been building for many months, and has not lost a battle since September. It has been advancing steadily since June; however, in recent weeks, this force has surged in a series of one-sided victories from Damascus to Aleppo, from al Raqqah to Deir ez Zor, and beyond.

But in Damascus in particular there has been a second dimension: while there is no place for a traditional military to hide, insurgents have been eating away at the Assad regime for months. Despite efforts to put them down, opposition fighters have been able to hit regime targets and then melt away into the civilian population operating very much like insurgents in Iraq or South Vietnam.

This is the imminent threat. While the military wing of the insurgency is creeping forward, slowly encircling the capital, the lurking enemy lies in many neighborhoods across the city and its suburbs. It is this two-pronged threat that has toppled a half dozen bases around Damascus since the beginning of October.

Now the target is the airport: if that is closed, all sense of normalcy will be gone. Over the last several nights, there have been insurgent attempts to take it. Now it appears that the challenge may be serious enough to close the airport —- maybe for good. The news has already shaken the confidence of the international airlines, hesitant to send their people and planes into what looks like a warzone.

Elements of the Syrian opposition military are closing a noose around the cities of Idlib, Deir Ez Zor, and Aleppo. Once these are surrounded, or possibly captured, Al Raqqah and Hassakah in the north, and Hama in the west, will be the new targets. The  insurgents are making a play for Daraa, and are attempting to build strength around Damascus while reducing Assad’s military advantage.

Many of the bases recently taken by the insurgents, particularly around Damascus, do not look as though they were vigorously defended, indicating that morale is the lowest it has been. As an insurgent advance takes much of his country, Assad could find his closest defenses dissolving in a matter of days, or even hours. 

So the Internet has been cut, in the regime’s hope that a disconnected insurgency, and activists who cannot access each other or the outside world, will have trouble galvanising their supporters or organizing the final push. If bad news can be hidden away from Assad’s own soldiers, defections may not increase as much as they would otherwise.

I don’t think it will work. It did not work when Assad cut the internet in Homs, or in Deir Ez Zor, or in Aleppo, or in Idlib Province. The opposition has been planning for this day. More importantly, this is too little, too late. 

An imminent fall of the Assad regime is not an inevitability, but it is a distinct possibility.

Syrian Chief Justice announces defection from regime #Syria
Chief Justice Ali al-Aoun, who was also a member of the ruling Baath Party, said that dozens of Syrian officials and party members are going to follow in his footsteps very soon. (Al Arabiya)
Chief Justice Ali al-Aoun, who was also a member of the ruling Baath Party, said that dozens of Syrian officials and party members are going to follow in his footsteps very soon. (Al Arabiya)

The Chief Justice of the court of Deir al-Zour in eastern Syria, Ali al-Aoun, announced his defection from Bashar al-Assad’s regime citing the systematic killing of the Syrian people.

“The Syrian regime is embarking on a genocidal campaign against the people with the help of its allies,” Aoun said in a special interview with Al Arabiya.

Aoun, who was also a member of the ruling Baath Party, said that dozens of Syrian officials and party members are going to follow in his footsteps very soon.

“They have all defected since the first days of the revolution, but were waiting for the right time to make their defection public. This specifically applies to the judiciary.”

Aoun labeled former Syrian Prime Minister Riad Hijab, who defected in August 2012, as “the father of defectors,” in that his act encouraged many Syrian officials to turn their back on the regime. 

“The coming stage will witness major defections now that many officials have managed to have their families out of Syria and safely settled in Jordan or Turkey,” he concluded. 

Aoun said he is thankful to the Free Syrian Army, the main armed Syrian opposition, for helping him get his extended family out of Syria. 

Regarding the progress of the uprising, Aoun argued that the Syrian regime has already fallen and that the liberation of the city of al-Bukamal in the Deir al-Zour governorate is very symbolic in this regard.

“Al-Bukamal is the first city that defeated the French occupation in the past, which means that it is a city known for its resistance. It will also be a safe haven for defectors and Free Syrian Army officers.”

#Syria Nov 14/12 Deir Ezzor: Regime tank fires directtly at a mosque

8 Nov 2012 #Syria : Daara Atman, Mataz God brigade shells regime artillery battalion

Shelling :

Smoke rising from regime artillery battalion :

3 Nov 2012 Syria : EXTREMELY GRAPHIC leaked video of Assad forces celebrating after massacre of civilians

Important video showing the bodies of martyrs after a massacre by Assad’s forces in the area Alveabih  ( this is just one of many of such videos, sadly there are worse)

note -Viewer discretion IS advised as this contain scenes of an EXTREMELY GRAPHIC NATURE. 

#Syria 10/08/12 Warning graphic! Ma’arat Numan: Massacre of detainees alleged to have been committed by regime forces before they withdrew from the city’s prison


Egypt says Syria’s “oppressive regime” must go #Syria
A Free Syrian Army fighter fires an AK-47 rifle at Syrian Army soldiers during clashes in the El Amreeyeh neighborhood of Syria's northwest city of Aleppo August 30, 2012. REUTERS-Youssef Boudlal
A man salvages his belongings from his shop during heavy fighting in the Amreeyeh frontline at the neighbourhood of Syria's northwest city of Aleppo August 30, 2012. REUTERS-Youssef Boudlal
Free Syrian Army fighters take cover during fighting with Syrian government forces in the El Amreeyeh neighbourhood of Syria's northwest city of Aleppo August 30, 2012. REUTERS-Youssef Boudlal

DUBAI/AMMAN | Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:37pm BST

(Reuters) - Egypt called on Thursday for intervention to halt bloodshed in Syria, telling a meeting of 120 nations it was their duty to stand against the “oppressive regime” of Bashar al-Assad, prompting a Syrian walkout.

President Mohamed Mursi, elected two months ago after a popular uprising toppled Egypt’s long-standing leader Hosni Mubarak, said Assad had lost legitimacy in his fight to crush a 17-month-old revolt in which 20,000 people have been killed.

Mursi’s scathing speech to a summit of non-aligned leaders, hosted by Assad’s Shi’ite ally Iran, prompted Syria’s foreign minister to accuse the moderate Sunni Islamist leader of inciting further bloodshed in Syria.

The political broadside against the Syrian president came as rebels said they shot down a fighter plane in northern Syria, where his air force has been bombarding opposition-held towns in a fierce counter-offensive against insurgents.

It was the latest strike by Assad’s foes on the air power he has increasingly relied on to crush the uprising. Rebels said this week they attacked a northern military air base and shot down a helicopter that was bombarding a district of Damascus.

“The bloodshed in Syria is our responsibility on all our shoulders and we have to know that the bloodshed cannot stop without effective interference from all of us,” Mursi said.

“We all have to announce our full solidarity with the struggle of those seeking freedom and justice in Syria, and translate this sympathy into a clear political vision that supports a peaceful transition to a democratic system of rule that reflects the demands of the Syrian people for freedom.”

His comments prompted Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem to storm out of the meeting, complaining that Mursi was inciting fighters to “continue shedding Syrian blood”, Syrian state television said.

ASSAD SAYS NEEDS TIME

Assad, in his first television interview since rebels took their fight into the heart of Damascus and the country’s biggest city, Aleppo, said on Wednesday his fight to put down the uprising was going well but needed more time.

“Everyone wants this battle to be completed in days or weeks but this isn’t reasonable, because we are in the middle of a regional and international struggle and it needs time to be resolved,” he said.

Mainly peaceful protests were met with force by Assad’s military, and the uprising has degenerated into a civil war with sectarian overtones and regional dimensions. The mainly Sunni Muslim rebels are backed by regional Sunni powers, particularly Gulf Arab states and Turkey.

Assad, whose Alawite community is an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam, has support from Iran, a rival of Gulf Arab states and Western powers. Lebanon’s Shi’ite militia Hezbollah has also shown solidarity with the Syrian president.

The role of regional powers has assumed greater significance because of deadlock at U.N. Security Council, where diplomatic stalemate has marginalized the major powers.

U.S., Russian and Chinese ministers are not expected to attend Thursday’s U.N. Security Council meeting on Syria, underlining the fact that both Assad’s critics and backers on the council see little prospect of it taking any action.

“We wanted a resolution on humanitarian issues, but we faced a double refusal,” said a French diplomat, whose country will chair the meeting in New York.

“The United States and Britain believe we have reached the end of what can be achieved at the Security Council, and Moscow and Beijing said that such a resolution would have been biased.”

Nearly a year and a half after the uprising erupted, Assad’s political foes are equally divided.

A member of the Syrian National Council, which once hoped to win international endorsement as the country’s leadership-in-waiting, resigned this week complaining it was not doing enough to back the revolt and must be replaced by a new political authority.

“My sense was that the SNC was not up to facing the increasing challenges on the ground,” Basma Kodmani, the latest council member to break from the SNC, told Reuters.

PLANE “SHOT DOWN”

The Syrian Martyrs Brigade said on Thursday it brought down a plane near the town of al-Thayabiya. Video footage on Al Arabiya television showed what appeared to be smoke in the sky and a person parachuting down. An army helicopter hovered over the area, apparently in search of the pilot.

“The brigade has started targeting the regime’s air assets, including military airports,” a member of the group said from Idlib, declining to give further details.

As well as targeting rebels, Assad’s jets and artillery have also struck at least 10 bakeries in Aleppo province in the last three weeks, killing dozens of people as they waited in line to buy bread, the U.S.-based Human Rights Watch said.

It said the attacks were either deliberate or done without care to avoid the hundreds of civilians forced to queue outside a dwindling number of bakeries in Syria’s biggest city, a front line in the civil war.

One attack two weeks ago killed around 60 people and wounded more than 70, it said.

The fighting around Aleppo, Damascus and the southern province of Deraa, where protests against Assad first erupted in March 2011, has prompted waves of refugees to flood into neighbouring Turkey and Jordan.

Turkey urged the United Nations to protect displaced Syrians inside their own country, to take the pressure off its crowded refugee camps, and France said it was studying the issue of buffer zones in Syria, an idea Assad dismissed as unrealistic.

Egypt pressures Syria as government jet downed

Syria walks out of an international summit after Egypt’s president uses his first visit to Iran in 33 years to condemn the Syrian administration as “an oppressive regime that has lost its legitimacy”.

Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi uses historic visit to Iran to condemn Syria (Reuters)

President Mohamed Morsi’s comments, made at a meeting of the Non Aligned Movement in Tehran, angered the Syrian regime, already on the defensive after rebels claimed to have brought down a government jet this morning.

The Syrian delegation walked out following his speech, with foreign minister Walied al-Moallem describing the comments as “an interference in our internal affairs” and an “incitement…to continue the shedding of Syrian blood”.

Mr Morsi said: “The bloodshed in Syria is our responsibility on all our shoulders and we have to know that the bloodshed cannot stop without effective interference from all of us.

“Our solidarity with the struggle of the Syrian people against an oppressive regime that has lost its legitimacy is an ethical duty as it is a political and strategic necessity.

“We all have to announce our full solidarity with the stuggle of those seeking freedom and justice in Syria, and translate this sympathy into a clear political vision that supports a peaceful transition to a democratic system of rule that reflects the demands of the Syrian people for freedom.”

With the presidency of the Non-Aligned Movement being transferred from Egypt to Iran, the 2012 summit was held up by both nations as a chance to assert their power and profile on the global stage but for a domestic audience.

Egypt has refused to visit its Middle Eastern neighbour since the Iranian revolution in 1979, and President Mohamed Morsi is keen to mark his nascent leadership as distinct from the previous one. The trip to Tehran gave ample opportunities for domestic press to hail his "historic" act, with further attention to his presence drawn by his comments on Syria.

For Tehran, hosting the summit gave the administration a chance to claim that it was now in the "limelight of the world's media", but this time, not because of its nuclear ambitions.

Iran will also seize the opportunity to become a bigger player in diplomatic moves to end the conflict in Syria. In opposition to the UN, which will criticise President Mahmoud Ahmedinjad's administration for its human rights record, Iran will argue that the Non-Aligned Movement has a greater role to play in diplomatic affairs, and will propose an alternative peace plan for Syria involving a ceasefire and three-month reconciliation talks.

In Syria, a fighter jet was shot down over the northwestern province of Idlib, near the Turkish border. The Free Syrian Army claimed victory following the incident, saying later that they had captured and arrested the pilot.

Video footage appeared to show smoke in the sky and a person parachuting down, three days after rebels claimed to shoot down a Syrian army helicopterover Damascus.

But the Syrian government denied that they had suffered defeat, with a Syrian military source claiming: “No Syrian warplane, at any rate, has been downed in Idlib countryside.”

The developments in Syria and at the meeting came a day after President Assad claimed his regime was on the road to victory against the rebels.

In an interview broadcast on Syrian state television, he said his armed forces will need time to defeat the rebels, claiming that his army is fighting a regional and global war.

#Syria : Thank you USA … 

#Syria : Thank you USA … 

#Syria What is Hezbollah’s Plan B
Lebanese Hezbollah supporters wave the movement’s yellow flags and hold up the Syrian flag decorated with an image of President Bashar al-Assad on July 18, 2012. AFP PHOTO/ANWAR AMRO
08/13/12 By Shane Farrel

Predictions of the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria have been around since protests began back in March 2011. Some eighteen months later, however, the conflict has picked up intensity and shows few signs of abating. Regardless of who emerges victorious in this ever-so-bloody struggle (which by today’s estimates has left some 20,000 dead), the Syria of tomorrow will be indistinguishable from the Syria of yesterday.

Hezbollah, a staunch ally of the Syria regime that was recently sanctioned by the US for supporting the Assad regime, has much to lose if the regime crumbles. Not only has the Assad regime been a key military ally to the Party of God – by facilitating weapons transfers and providing intelligence and logistical support, among other things – but it has been a key political ally, priming Hezbollah’s rise to the dominant force in the Lebanese government. If the Assad regime collapses, therefore, how will Hezbollah react?

NOW Lebanon asked this and related questions to four analysts, namely journalist and author of ‘Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel,’ Nick Blanford; commentator for Al-Balad newspaper and Al Janoubia, a Shia-directed news website, Ali al-Amin; An-Nahar columnist Ibrahim Bayram; and a source close to Hezbollah who asked for his name not to be printed.

All the interviewees believe that with its track record and as any serious political party ought, Hezbollah has contingency plans for potential outcomes to the Syrian crisis.

The source close to Hezbollah believes that the party calculates not complete regime change, but a loss of government control over some areas and the distinct possibility of the conflict escalating into an open or civil war (a term some external observers, including the International Crisis Group, have already used to describe the conflict). In a similar vein, Amin reckons Hezbollah may be gambling on the length of time regime collapse would take to occur, and will maneuver to best “manage the chaos” in the interim. When asked how it might do so, Amin said the party may reach out to other Lebanese political parties, but stressed that this was only speculation.

As for Hezbollah’s access to weapons, Blanford believes that although regime change may threaten the party’s access to an important land channel, Hezbollah retains control over Beirut airport and key ports (as evidenced by past weapons shipments from Iran that were intercepted by Israel) through which it will be able to access weapons. Moreover, land routes will only be cut off if a strong, anti-Hezbollah government replaces the current regime, which is difficult to envisage in the immediate future.

According to the unnamed Hezbollah source, weapons transfers would undoubtedly be more complicated if the Assad regime is replaced, but the party, he believes, will be able to adapt. “Look at what happened in Gaza in spite of the siege,” he added, referring to supplies and weapons which were smuggled to Palestinians despite a land, air, and sea blockade on the territory by Israel and Egypt between 2007 and 2010.

In addition to complicating weapons transfers, regime change in Syria would deal a significant political and psychological blow to Hezbollah and Iran, according to Amin. In particular, he believes a loss of Syria as a close ally will damage the notion of resistance to Israel, with party members aware that in a future conflict with Israel, Hezbollah may not enjoy similar levels of diplomatic and political support it received with the Assad regime. Syria, moreover, is the only Arab state allied with Hezbollah and Iran.

With so much potentially at stake for the party if the Syrian government is toppled, it is perhaps little surprise that the party has been accused of supporting the regime. A US diplomatic source, for instance, who spoke to NOW accused the party of providing “a range of critical support to the Assad regime—including training, advice, and logistical assistance.”
 Amin believes that if true, this is unsurprising as, “considering [Hezbollah’s] dogma and political mindset, it becomes their duty to [support the Assad regime].”

However, when asked whether Hezbollah is militarily supporting the Assad regime, Bayram replied “in the sense that [Hezbollah] would send forces to Syria in support of the regime, [such a situation is] so far off that it is non-existent.” The party, he continued, is effective through guerrilla tactics but does not have the means to fight as a traditional army. “Hezbollah,” he concludes, “doesn’t have the strength to save a regime like the one in Syria.”