By Daniel P. Sullivan, April 1, 2012

There have been a lot of developments around Syria this week but ultimately landing the world in the same place.

Joint UN and Arab League Envoy Kofi Annan appealed to Russia and gained the explicit backing of the UN Security Council and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad accepted Annan’s plan, at least verbally. Yet the very next day there were widespread reports of military attacks on towns and villages by the Syrian army, adding to the more than 9,000 people killed so far, and UN human rights chief, Navi Pillay, said detained children are being tortured; hardly the ceasefire and military drawback stipulated in Annan’s peace plan.

Yet, the Friends of Syria meeting in Istanbul, Turkey this coming Sunday, April 1st, has the potential to change the stalemate. If Assad does not cease attacks against civilians by that time, there will be added motivation for the Friends of Syria group to view Annan’s gambit as a failed attempt for peace. Moving on could mean the announcement of new confidence in the unity of the Syrian opposition which has already met in Turkey this week, and greater pressure for outside actors to arm the opposition. The United States and United Kingdom announced again this week that they will be stepping up nonlethal aid to the opposition, but seems a long way from providing arms. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar may not be so patient.

On the other side, Assad may very well see this danger and seek to make symbolic withdrawals of his forces. Recent attacks may be just a final push to gain ground before a ceasefire locks in those gains. This could be a continuation of Assad’s strategy to buy time and stave off growing international condemnation. Whether a calculated short-term move against international pressure or the beginnings of a longer term self-interested rapprochement, it would have the advantage of stopping the killing at least for the immediate future and create space for diplomacy.

However, that also assumes opposition forces would be willing to accept the ceasefire. This is an unlikely scenario given the lack of unity, let alone clear command and control among the opposition, and even less likely if that opposition senses a willingness for other countries to provide it with arms.

What we are left with is a dangerous balancing act in which the international community is trying to entice Assad to move toward peaceful settlement, but wary of his intentions as it seeks to support an opposition that struggles to unify, without encouraging a protracted civil war. Key to this balance will be the stances of Syria’s key remaining allies, Russia and possibly Iran, both of whom have endorsed Annan’s peace plan. The visit of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to Iran this week adds to the intrigue.

Will Russia and Iran (perhaps with self-serving incentives) be willing to increase pressure on Assad if he does not draw back, or is this stalling the very strategy they are suggesting he follow? On the other side, can the Friends of Syria help to unite the opposition and convince them to agree to a ceasefire or will they, by word or deed, encourage further fighting?

As we wait for these questions to be answered, and hope that this weekend’s Friends of Syria meeting adds some clarity, there are at least some things that can be controlled by the United States. Russia continues to provide weapons to the Syrian regime that are being used against civilians and the U.S. government continues to hold contracts with the very same Russian state-owned arms dealer that is providing those weapons. Two weeks after 17 Senators sent a letter asking for clarification from Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta on this issue, there are still no answers to why this is happening. Join your voice to those calls by clicking here.

Daniel P. Sullivan is the Director of Policy and Government Relations for United to End Genocide.

Colonel Riad al-Asaad told Reuters that fighters from the Syrian Free Army, a loose collection of military units formed from thousands of military deserters, had improved their reconnaissance ability to enable them to disrupt army movements.

In the last month, army rebels have attacked and destroyed parts of an armored convoy in the southern province of Deraa, opened fire on an intelligence centre on the outskirts of Damascus, and killed six pilots at an air force base.

On Thursday, they killed eight people in a three-hour battle with security forces at an intelligence centre in the northern province of Idlib, an activist group said.

It was the latest clash in a spreading cycle of violence which has prompted the U.N. human rights chief to say Syria appears to be on the cusp of civil war.

Colonel Asaad said the increased attacks were in response to Assad’s military crackdown on eight months of protests which the United Nations says has killed more than 4,000 people.

“For months now regime forces have not entered a city, town or village without using heavy guns, armour and tanks against their inhabitants. We have a right to stop the troops going to violate the people,” Asaad said in an interview by telephone from Turkey where he has taken refuge.

A United Nations commission said this week Syrian security forces had committed crimes against humanity including murder, torture and rape. “Defending against such brutality, which now knows no limits, is a natural right,” Asaad said.

Syrian authorities say they are fighting “terrorist organizations” that, according to Damascus, are trying to incite civil war and have killed 1,100 soldiers and police since the uprising broke out in March.

MORE ATTACKS

Opposition sources cite increased operations in the last 10 days by defectors and insurgents in the central regions of Hama and Homs, where supply lines are being set up to Lebanon and to the rugged Idlib province on Turkey’s border.

Opposition to Assad has been fiercest in those provinces, as well as the eastern region of Deir al-Zor near the Iraq border. Assad has poured troops and tanks into the areas.

Defectors have also taken losses, especially in the central town of Rastan near Homs, where opposition sources said 22 deserters including two officers were killed in a tank-led assault two weeks ago.

Asaad declined to be drawn into operational details, but he said the defectors have changed tactics since they started coordinating three months ago, when he said attacks were targeting security police checkpoints.

He said defectors were not attacking troops in their barracks and ambushes on military convoys were justified.

“Tanks are usually assigned to their bases. The only reason they are leaving them is to kill and destroy people,” he said.

“Those soldiers who have taken an oath to serve and protect and are now harming the people have to quit and join the ranks of the people.”

He said defectors, who number over 10,000, were also trying to target security police complexes where he said thousands of anti-Assad Syrians were being held, as well as command centers directing the crackdown.

“They are legitimate targets across the country,” he said. “We have to attack them because it’s from there that orders are given to put down the Syrian people.”

Last month, the Syrian Free army formed a military council of nine defecting officers headed by Asaad. They issued a declaration pledging to protect peaceful protests, “bring down the regime and protect citizens from repression … and prevent chaos as soon as the regime falls.”

Burhan Ghalioun, leader of the main opposition group the Syrian National Council, met Asaad in Istanbul this week.

Ghalioun told reporters on a visit to Bulgaria on Friday he delivered a message that “we are against civil war.”

“We want the army defectors … to limit their actions to protecting their own lives and to the defense of peaceful demonstrators,” he said, adding all armed groups in Syria should work on “one unified strategy.”

Navi Pillay wants country to be referred to the Hague-based ICC over Assad government’s alleged crimes against humanity.

The UN human rights chief has issued another appeal for the urgent protection of the Syrian people from the government’s crackdown.

Navi Pillay made the remarks at an emergency meeting of the UN Human Rights Council in the Swiss city of Geneva on Friday.

She demanded the international community hold accountable the government of President Bashar al-Assad for crimes against humanity.

Pillay said fresh reports from the country - including that 307 children have been killed since March - reinforced the need for the UN Security Council to submit the situation in Syria to the Hague-based International Criminal Court,” she said.

“In light of the manifest failure of the Syrian authorities to protect their citizens, the international community needs to take urgent and effective measures to protect the Syrian people,” she said.

A draft resolution backed by African, European, Asian, Arab and American members of the 47-nation council calls for the establishment of a special investigator on Syria, but leaves open the issue of whether the more powerful Security Council should refer the country to the ICC.

Pillay said on Thursday that the conflict in Syria looked like a civil war.

“I have said that as soon as there were more and more defectors threatening to take up arms - I said this in August, before the Security Council - that there is going to be a civil war. And at the moment that’s how I’m characterising this.”

‘Much higher’ toll

Pillay said her office had received reliable information that the death toll since the start of the eight-month uprising was now “much more” than 4,000.

“The Syrian authorities’ continual ruthless repression, if not stopped now, can drive the country into a full-fledged civil war,” she said.

The UN Independent Commission of Inquiry said on Monday that Syrian forces had committed crimes against humanity, including the murder and torture of children, following orders from the highest levels of Assad’s government.

In a separate development, the European Union tightened sanctions against Syria’s energy and financial sectors in response to Assad’s crackdown on dissidents.

“The EU reiterates its condemnation in the stronget terms of the brutal crackdown by the Syrian government which risks taking Syria down a very dangerous path of violence, sectarian clashes and militarisation,” the foreign ministers said in a statement after talks in Brussels.

The sanctions target “the energy, financial, banking and trade sectors and include the listing of additional individuals and entities that are involved in the violence or directly supporting the regime”.

Diplomats said the measures include bans on exporting gas and oil industry equipment to Syria, trading Syrian government bonds and selling software that could be used to monitor Internet and telephone communications.

They also added that 12 more individuals and 11 more entities to a blacklist of people and companies hit by assets freezes and travel bans over the government’s crackdown on protesters.

Syrian suspension

In response, Syria suspended its participation in the Mediterranean Union, state media said.

“Syria is suspending its membership in the Mediterranean Union in response to European measures taken against it,” a statement carried by the official SANA news agency said.

The Mediterranean Union, an initiative of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, was inaugurated in 2008 to bolster co-operation between Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.

The Arab League chief, Nabil el-Araby, rejected on Thursday any foreign intervention in Syria as he joined European Union talks aimed at ramping up pressure on Damascus.

“We reject any accusation that the Arab League is inviting any intervention,” el-Araby said.

“Every decision taken by the Arab League rejects an intervention,” he added, days after the pan-Arabic body imposed its own unprecedented sanctions against Assad’s government.

Walid al-Muallem, the Syrian foreign minister, had accused this week “some League members” of “pushing to internationalise the conflict”.

UN human rights chief condemned Syrian authorities’ “ruthless repression” of protesters at the opening of an emergency meeting of the Human Rights Council in Geneva on Friday

Geneva: The UN human rights chief condemned Syrian authorities’ “ruthless repression” of protesters at the opening of an emergency meeting of the Human Rights Council in Geneva on Friday.

The special session was called by 28 member states and 40 observer countries after independent investigators found evidence security forces murdered and tortured civilians following orders from the top of the Bashar Al Assad regime.

“The Syrian authorities’ continual ruthless repression, if not stopped now, can drive the country into a fully-fledged civil war,” Pillay told the opening of the meeting.

“In light of the manifest failure of the Syrian authorities to protest their citizens, the international community needs to take urgent and effective measures to protect the Syrian people.”

The High Commissioner repeated a call to the UN Security Council to refer the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court.

“The Commission’s report reinforces that the need for international accountability has even greater urgency today,” Pillay said, referring to the findings of the Independent Commission of Inquiry on Syria published on Monday.

‘Civil war’

Beirut: Syria has entered a state of civil war with more than 4,000 people dead and an increasing number of soldiers defecting from the army to fight President Bashar Al Assad’s regime, the UN’s top human rights official has said.

Civil war has been the worst-case scenario in Syria since the revolt against Al Assad began eight months ago.

Damascus has a web of allegiances that extends to Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah movement and Iran’s Shiite theocracy, raising fears of a regional conflagration.

The assessment Thursday that the bloodshed in Syria has crossed into civil war came from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay.

Eight killed in attack on intelligence building

News of the UN report was shortly followed by news that Syrian army deserters killed eight people in an attack on an intelligence building in the north of the country, an opposition group said on Friday.

The group said the attack took place on Thursday in Idlib province, between the towns of Jisr Al Shughour and the Mediterranean city of Latakia.

Daily vioence

The conflict has shown little sign of letting up. Activists reported up to 22 people killed Thursday, adding to what has become a daily grind of violence.

“We are placing the (death toll) figure at 4,000 but really the reliable information coming to us is that it’s much more than that,” Pillay said in Geneva.

“As soon as there were more and more defectors threatening to take up arms, I said this in August before the Security Council, that there’s going to be a civil war,” she added. “And at the moment, that’s how I am characterizing this.”

US State Department spokesman Mark Toner declined to call it a civil war.

“The overwhelming use of force has been taken by Assad and his regime,” Toner told reporters. “So there’s no kind of equanimity here.” Toner said Assad’s government has taken Syria down a dangerous path, and that “the regime’s bloody repression of the protests has not surprisingly led to this kind of reaction that we’ve seen with the Free Syrian Army.”

Free Syrian Army

The Free Syrian Army, a group of defectors from the military, has emerged as the most visible armed challenge to Assad. The group holds no territory, appears largely disorganized and is up against a fiercely loyal and cohesive military.

International intervention, such as the Nato action in Libya that helped topple longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi, is all but out of the question in Syria. But there is real concern that the conflict in Syria could spread chaos across the Middle East.

Syria borders five countries with whom it shares religious and ethnic minorities and, in Israel’s case, a fragile truce. Recent economic sanctions imposed by the European Union, the Arab League and Turkey were aimed at persuading Al Assad to end his crackdown.

New sanctions

On Thursday, the EU announced a new round of sanctions against Syrian individuals and businesses linked to the unrest. The new sanctions target 12 people and 11 companies, and add to a long list of those previously sanctioned by the EU.

The full list of names of those targeted will not be known until they are published Friday in the EU’s official journal.

The 27-member bloc also imposed some sanctions on Syria’s ally Iran in the wake of an attack this week by a mob on the British Embassy in Tehran, the Iranian capital. British Foreign Secretary William Hague accused Iran of supporting Assad’s crackdown, saying “there is a link between what is happening in Iran and what is happening in Syria.”

The sanctions are punishing Syria’s ailing economy - a dangerous development for Damascus because the prosperous merchant classes are key to propping up the regime.

Business leaders

Syrian business leaders have long traded political freedoms for economic privileges. The sanctions, along with increasing calls by the opposition for general nationwide strikes, could sap their resolve.

A resident of the flashpoint city of Homs said businessmen are growing impatient.

“The sanctions against the regime are harming them,” he told The Associated Press by telephone, asking that his name not be used for fear of reprisals.

“Merchants only care about their interests. Many merchants are complaining that their business is dropping.”

Activists also are trying to peel the business elite away from their allegiance to Al Assad.

General strike

On Thursday, opposition groups called for a general strike, but it was difficult to gauge how widely Syrians were abiding by the strike. The regime has sealed the country off from foreign journalists and prevented independent reporting.

Residents in Syria’s two economic powerhouses - the capital of Damascus and the northern city of Aleppo - reported business as usual Thursday.

But a video posted online by activists showed mostly closed shops in the Damascus suburb of Zabadani, which also has seen large anti-government protests.

And a resident in Homs said most of the shops were closed, except for those selling food. Homs has been one of Syria’s most volatile cities, with increasing clashes between troops and army defectors.

Syria has been the site of the deadliest crackdown against the Arab Spring’s protests. Deaths in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen have numbered in the hundreds.

Libya’s toll is unknown and likely higher than Syria’s, but the conflict there differed because it descended early on into an outright civil war between two armed sides. Since the revolt began in Syria, the regime has blamed the bloodshed on terrorists acting out a foreign conspiracy to divide and undermine the country.

Sectarian tensions

It has laid bare Syria’s simmering sectarian tensions, with disturbing reports of killings like those seen in Iraq. Syria is an overwhelmingly Sunni country of 22 million, but Al Assad and the ruling elite belong to the minority Alawite sect.

Al Assad, and his father before him, stacked key military posts with Alawites to meld the fate of the army and the regime - a tactic aimed at compelling troops to fight to the death to protect the Al Assad family dynasty.

The leader of the Free Syrian Army, breakaway air force Col. Riad Al Asaad, acknowledges nearly all the defectors under his command - some 15,000 - are low-level Sunni conscripts.

The men are armed with rocket-propelled grenades, rifles and guns they took with them when they deserted, as well as light weapons they acquired on the black market, he says.

Until recently, most of the bloodshed was caused by security forces firing on mainly peaceful protesters. There have been growing reports of army defectors and armed civilians fighting Al Assad’s forces - a development that some say plays into the regime’s hands by giving government troops a pretext to crack down with overwhelming force.

Humiliating affront

As the violence continues, the 22-member Arab League in Cairo unveiled this week a list of top officials it wants to prevent from travelling to Arab countries - a humiliating affront to a country that prides itself on Arab nationalism.

The 17 officials who face the ban include the defense and interior ministers, and close members of Al Assad’s inner circle.

Assad’s millionaire cousin, Rami Makhlouf, who has controlled the mobile phone network and other lucrative enterprises in Syria, and the president’s younger brother, Maher, are on the list. Al Assad himself was not named.