#Syria refugee tally tops 1.5 million, UN says

More than 1.5 million Syrians have fled their conflict-ravaged homeland, the UN’s refugee agency said Friday, warning that the real figure could be even higher as the tally only reflected those who register with aid groups.

Dan McNorton, spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, told reporters that close to 250,000 Syrians were being registered each month.

“Refugees tell us the increased fighting and changing of control of towns and villages, in particular in conflict areas, results in more and more civilians deciding to leave,” McNorton said.

“Over the past four months we have seen a rapid deterioration when compared to the previous 20 months of this conflict,” he added.

McNorton underlined that the actual number of refugees was likely to be even higher than 1.5 million.

“This is due to concerns that some Syrians have regarding registration,” he said, explaining that rumors circulating among exiles about the supposed security risks of signing up for refugee status put some people off.

He said aid agencies were working to encourage waivers to register in order to be able to receive official help, even as UNHCR struggles to keep up with the rising numbers and needs.

“The increasingly widening gap between the needs and resources available is a growing challenge,” he said.

“UNHCR continues to respond to the emergency needs of those in desperate need inside Syria and neighboring countries,” he added.

Syrians have surged out of their country since March 2011, when a crackdown on protests against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad heralded the start of an armed rebellion.

Numbers ballooned as the conflict morphed into an increasingly sectarian civil war, and the total topped a million in March this year.

Most have fled to neighboring Jordan, where close to 474,000 have been registered by UNHCR or are waiting registration, and to Lebanon, with over 470,000.

Some 347,000 are in Turkey, over 147,000 in Iraq and close to 67,000 in Egypt, according to UNHCR’s latest data.

In addition to the refugees, the United Nations has said that more than 4.25 million Syrians are displaced within their homeland.

That means that, all told, over a quarter of Syria’s pre-war population of 22.5 million have been forced to quit their homes since the conflict began.

The death toll has surpassed 90,000, according to the UN.

AFP - 05/17/2013

UN assembly slams Syrian government’s “escalation” of war - #Syria

The UN General Assembly on Wednesday condemned the Syrian government’s “escalation” of the country’s war and backed the role of the opposition coalition in transition talks.

But Russia, Syria’s key diplomatic ally, fiercely opposed the resolution, branding it a potential obstacle to peace negotiations expected to be held in Geneva next month.

And only 107 countries in the 193-member assembly backed the text, down from 133 when the last Syria vote was held in August.

The United States, Britain and France joined Arab countries in supporting the resolution which expressed “outrage at the rapidly increasing death toll,” now estimated at more than 80,000 by Syrian activists.

Russia, China, Syria, Iran and North Korea were among 12 countries to oppose the resolution. Fifty-nine countries, including Brazil, South Africa, India and Indonesia abstained.

The assembly “strongly condemns the continued escalation in the use by the Syrian authorities of heavy weapons”, including “ballistic missiles” against civilians, said the resolution, which was drawn up by Qatar and other Arab states.

On political efforts to end the war, the assembly demanded all sides work to “implement rapidly” a communique agreed by the major powers in Geneva in June last year laying out the steps toward a transitional government.

The resolution welcomed the opposition Syrian National Coalition “as effective representative interlocutors needed for a transition.” This phrase infuriated Russia which said it would encourage the opposition to step up “armed actions” against the Syrian government.

The Arab League has recognized the coalition as Syria’s legitimate government. There was no recognition in the UN text but Arab states are said to be planning moves to get the coalition into Syria’s UN seat later this year.

Russia and the United States agreed to press for a new international conference on the war which is expected to be held in Geneva next month. Russia’s UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin wrote to all 193 UN members ahead of the vote to slam the resolution as “one-sided and biased”.

Russia and China have vetoed three UN Security Council resolutions, proposed by western nations, aiming to step up pressure on President Bashar al-Assad over the conflict.

And Western nations strongly backed the new assembly resolution.

“The consequences of this crisis are growing more dire not only within Syria, but across the region,” said deputy US ambassador Rosemary DiCarlo, who added that backing the resolution was in line with efforts to set up a peace conference.

France’s UN ambassador Gerard Araud said the resolution would help the opposition to unite for any peace conference.

“This is a substantive draft that reflects the horrific situation on the ground and pushes for a political solution,” said Germany’s UN ambassador Peter Wittig.

Qatar’s UN ambassador Meshal Hamad Al-Thani called the resolution “fair and balanced” but the text was slammed by Syria’s UN ambassador Bashar Jaafari as an attempt “to escalate the crisis and fuel violence in Syria.”

The UN assembly passed a resolution condemning Syria in August last year with 133 countries in favour, 12 votes against and 31 abstentions.

Diplomats said the lower number voting in favor this time reflected the international divisions over Syria and doubts about how it can be ended.

The resolution called for “urgent” international financing to help countries struggling with more than 1.4 million Syrian refugees. Jordan in particular has said the refugees are now a threat to its stability.

AFP - 05/15/2013

#Syria opposition urges UN to act over chemical arms

Syria’s opposition on Friday urged the UN Security Council to take immediate action after the United States said for the first time the regime probably used chemical weapons.

The call came as British Prime Minister David Cameron said that growing evidence of the use of chemical weapons by President Bashar al-Assad was “extremely serious” and called for increased foreign pressure on the Syrian regime.

“It is time for the UN Security Council to act” on Syria, an official from the main opposition National Coalition told AFP on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media.

The UN Security Council has been stalled over Syria for more than two years, with members Russia and China backing Assad and vetoing several draft resolutions that would have imposed sanctions on the regime.

“This is a massive issue, and the Security Council’s paralysis over Syria is no excuse,” the Coalition official said.

“The UN needs to immediately investigate the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Should it find the regime used such weapons, it must act immediately, at least by imposing a no-fly zone,” he added.

“If the Security Council cannot break its paralysis, proof of the use of chemical weapons by the regime would open the way for others, such as NATO, to act.”

The National Coalition has accused the regime of using chemical weapons in the northern province of Aleppo, in Homs in the center of Syria and in rebel-held areas near Damascus.

04/26/2013 - AFP/NOW

#Syria’s Assad Suffering Reversals in Fighting and Diplomacy

04/12/12

A kitchen in a residence in Aleppo, Syria, damaged Sunday in fighting between Free Syrian Army fighters and government forces.

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Fierce fighting on the battlefield and setbacks on the diplomatic front increased pressure on the embattled Syrian government on Monday as fresh signs emerged of a worsening battle for control of the capital.

A senior Turkish official said that Russia had agreed on Monday to a new diplomatic approach that would seek ways to persuade President Bashar al-Assad to relinquish power, a possible weakening in Russia’s steadfast support for the government. Fighting raged around Damascus, the Syrian capital, and its airport, disrupting commercial flights for a fourth straight day.

A prominent Foreign Ministry spokesman was said to have left the country amid reports of his defection, and both President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton issued warnings that any use of chemical weapons by a desperate government would be met with a strong international response. A Western diplomat confirmed that there were grave concerns in United States intelligence circles that Syrian leaders could resort to the use of the weapons as their position deteriorates.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry, repeating earlier statements, told state television that the government “would not use chemical weapons, if it had them, against its own people under any circumstances.”

The United Nations said it was withdrawing nonessential international staff from Syria, and the European Union said it was reducing activities in Damascus “to a minimum,” as security forces pummeled the suburbs with artillery and airstrikes in a struggle to seal off the city from its restive outskirts and control the airport road. A senior Russian official spoke for the first time in detail about the possibility of evacuating Russian citizens.

Mr. Assad has held on longer than many had predicted at the start of the 21-month uprising. He still has a strong military advantage and undiminished support from his closest ally, Iran. Military analysts doubt the rebels are capable of taking Damascus by force, and one fighter interviewed on Monday said the government counteroffensive was inflicting heavy losses. There were still no firm indications from Russia that it was ready to join Turkey and Western nations in insisting on Mr. Assad’s immediate departure.

But the latest grim developments follow a week of events that suggested the Assad government was being forced to fight harder to keep its grip on power. Rebels threatened its vital control of the skies, using surface-to-air missiles to down a fighter plane and other aircraft. The opposition also gained control of strategic military bases and their arsenals, and forced the government to shut down the Damascus airport periodically. The Internet was off for two days.

A Russian political analyst with contacts at the Foreign Ministry said that “people sent by the Russian leadership” who had contact with Mr. Assad two weeks ago described a man who has lost all hope of victory or escape.

“His mood is that he will be killed anyway,” Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of a Russian foreign affairs journal and the head of an influential policy group, said in an interview in Moscow, adding that only an “extremely bold” diplomatic proposal could possibly convince Mr. Assad that he could leave power and survive.

“If he will try to go, to leave, to exit, he will be killed by his own people,” Mr. Lukyanov said, speculating that security forces dominated by Mr. Assad’s minority Alawite sect would not let him depart and leave them to face revenge. “If he stays, he will be killed by his opponents. He is in a trap. It is not about Russia or anybody else. It is about his physical survival.”

Many observers — United Nations personnel in Syria, Arab diplomats and opposition activists — stress that it is difficult to reliably assess the state of the government. But taken together, the day’s events suggested that the government’s position was declining more sharply than it had in months and that an international scramble to find a solution to the crisis was intensifying.

Nabil al-Araby, the head of the Arab League, said on Monday that the government could fall at “any time,” Agence France-Presse reported.

“I think there will be something soon,” he said. “Facts on the ground indicate very clearly now that the Syrian opposition is gaining, politically and militarily.”

The Arab League has long called for Mr. Assad to step down. But Russia, Mr. Assad’s most powerful ally, has held out the possibility of his staying in power during a transition, so the Russian government’s apparent shift of emphasis carried more weight.

Mikhail Bogdanov, a deputy foreign minister, told Itar-Tass that Russia was ready to provide assistance to any of its citizens wishing to leave Syria. Tens of thousands of Russians live there, mainly women married to Syrian men after years of cold war cooperation between the countries. He said their route out would most likely be by plane.

“Due to the situation, we recommend Russian citizens not to go to Syria,” Mr. Bogdanov said.

After meeting in Istanbul on Monday, President Vladimir V. Putin and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey said they had agreed on a new approach to resolving the conflict.

“We are neither protecting the regime in Syria nor acting as their advocate, but remain worried about Syria’s future,” Mr. Putin said at a joint news conference with Mr. Erdogan.

Mr. Putin did not elaborate, though Mr. Bogdanov said Russia would meet intensively with Syrian opposition groups based inside the country in the coming month. A senior Turkish official, speaking anonymously in accordance with diplomatic protocol, said plans included looking for ways to get Mr. Assad to step down. Russia has previously said it is not wedded to Mr. Assad, but the official suggested it was now more motivated to find an alternative.

“There is definitely a softening of the Russian political tone,” the Turkish official said, adding that Mr. Putin had acknowledged that Mr. Assad seemed unwilling to depart.

Yet, doubts remain about whether Russia can engineer a breakthrough. The Kremlin has insisted the crisis would be resolved only through negotiations between Syria’s government and its opponents, and its top envoy to Syria has quietly continued to meet with defectors from Mr. Assad’s government and members of the opposition.

But Russia has typically engaged mainly with Syria-based opposition groups, which the exile opposition and many in the uprising say are too close to the government. And Mr. Lukyanov, the Russian analyst, noted that even if Mr. Assad went, a radicalized Alawite security force could simply “turn into a militia.”

Lebanon’s Al-Manar television reported that a smooth-talking Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdissi, had been fired for making statements that did not reflect the government’s position. Activists said he had defected.

Mr. Makdissi, whose polished persona and fluent English had long made him one of the most cosmopolitan faces of the government, had not taken reporters’ phone calls or made public statements recently.

Rami Abdul-Rahman, the director of the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, who uses a pseudonym for safety reasons, said that Mr. Makdissi had met his family in Beirut, where they had been staying, and was believed to have boarded a flight for London. He said Mr. Makdissi had earlier angered some in the Syrian government with a statement saying Syria would use chemical weapons only against a foreign invasion — weapons the government prefers not to acknowledge it has.

While the fighting around Damascus has been intense, analysts say rebels are probably unable to overrun the capital; rather, in forcing the government to devote forces to Damascus, their offensive could hasten the loss of control in other parts of the country.

“We feel a change in the security situation,” said Muhannad Hadi, the Syria director of the United Nations’ World Food Program. He played down the United Nations evacuations, saying that nonessential personnel had left during a rebel offensive in July and had returned. But he said that the proliferation of checkpoints and explosions in the distance had made life in Damascus nerve-racking.

“You hear sounds of explosions, you hear shelling, you don’t know where it’s taking off or where it’s landing,” Mr. Hadi said. “It’s becoming part of daily life.”

UN suspends operations in #Syria, withdraws staff

03/12/12

UNITED NATIONS — The United Nations on Monday suspended operations in Syria and began withdrawing non-essential staff as the brutal civil conflict raged and the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was prompted to vow it would never use chemical weapons against its own people.

UN spokesman Martin Nesirky told reporters the organisation was suspending its Syria missions indefinitely, amid fresh bloodshed in the war that has already claimed an estimated 41,000 lives since starting in March 2011.

The UN pullout coincided with the United States voicing concerns that Assad’s forces might be weighing the use of chemical weapons.

US media reports earlier said the Syrian military had been detected moving the weapons around, and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Monday their deployment would cross a “red line.”

“We are concerned that an increasingly beleaguered regime … may be considering the use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people,” White House spokesman Jay Carney added.

In televised remarks, a Syrian foreign ministry official said Syria would “never, under any circumstances, use chemical weapons against its own people, if such weapons exist.”

The latest developments at the United Nations came after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Turkey that the NATO deployment of Patriot missiles along its border with Syria could exacerbate tensions.

He met with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an Istanbul summit that failed to yield a common response to Syria’s conflict.

Russia vehemently objects to Turkey’s NATO request for the deployment of Patriot missiles as Assad’s regime clings to power and suppresses a rebellion.

Moscow has warned that such a deployment could spark broader a conflict pulling in the Western military alliance. Putin underscored the point Monday, the eve of a NATO meeting in Brussels that is expected to decide on Ankara’s request.

“As they say, if a gun is hung on the wall at the start of a play, then at the end of the play it will definitely fire,” Putin said at a joint press conference with Erdogan.

“Why should we need extra shooting at the border? We are urging restraint.”

Though Turkey and Russia have growing trade and energy links, they remain at loggerheads over Syria.

Moscow is a staunch ally of Damascus, routinely blocking resolutions against Assad’s regime at the UN Security Council, while Ankara’s relationship with its neighbour has collapsed over the conflict and a series of cross-border shellings and other incidents.

Turkish tensions with Russia came to a head in October when Turkey intercepted a Syrian plane flying from Moscow to Damascus on suspicion that it had military cargo, drawing an angry response from Russia, which said it was carrying non-restricted radar equipment.

Some 120,000 refugees have streamed across the border into Turkey, with many more seeking safety in other neighbouring countries.

Putin said Russia is not necessarily a supporter of the Syrian regime but was concerned about how it would be replaced.

“We are not inveterate defenders of the current regime in Syria,” Putin was quoted as saying by Russian state television.

“Other things worry us, like what will happen in the future?”

In an exclusive interview with AFP, meanwhile, Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi said Assad’s regime was in danger of collapse “anytime” as the opposition made political and military headway.

“Facts on the ground indicate very clearly now that the Syrian opposition is gaining, politically and militarily. Every day they are gaining something,” Arabi said.

In another blow to the Assad regime, foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdisi, a prominant advocate of the president, was reported to have quit.

Arabi’s statement came as fighting continued to rock Damascus and other parts of Syria.

An air strike Monday killed at least 12 people — eight rebels and four civilians — and wounded more than 30 in the rebel-held northeastern town of Ras al-Ain on the border with Turkey, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The monitoring group, which relies on a network of activists and medics in civilian and military hospitals, said 86 people — including 32 civilians, 32 rebels and 22 troops — were killed Monday as Syrian troops battered rebel positions in and around Damascus.

Analysts say Assad’s forces want to secure Damascus to let the regime negotiate a way out of the conflict that the Observatory says has cost more than 41,000 lives in almost 21 months.

In central Syria, the Britain-based Observatory also reported clashes with rebels since Sunday in the central city of Hama, prompting authorities to send in reinforcements.

#Syrian government spokesman flees country, diplomat says

03/12/12

By Khaled Yacoub Oweis and Erika Solomon

CAIRO/BEIRUT (Reuters) - A Syrian foreign ministry spokesman, who was the most public face of Bashar al-Assad’s government as it battled a 20-month-old uprising, has defected and fled the country, a diplomat in the region said on Monday.

Jihad al-Makdissi, who is in his 40s, previously worked at the Syrian embassy in London and returned to Damascus a year ago to serve as spokesman for the ministry, defending the government’s crackdown on the revolt against Assad’s rule.

He had little influence in a system largely run by the security apparatus and the military. But Assad’s opponents will see the loss of such a high profile figure, if confirmed, as further evidence of a system crumbling from within.

Rebel forces have made advances in recent weeks, seizing several military bases including some outside the capital Damascus.

“He defected. All I can say is that he is out of Syria,” the diplomatic source, who did not want to be named, told Reuters.

Lebanon’s al-Manar Television, citing government sources, said Makdissi was sacked for making statements that did not reflect the government’s position.

Makdissi belongs to Syria’s Christian minority, which has largely stood behind Assad. He worked with the foreign ministry for 10 years and speaks fluent English, a rarity in a state apparatus shaped by the ruling Baath Party’s anti-Western ideology.

He was rarely seen in the media in recent weeks. His mobile telephone was switched off and there was no immediate comment in Syrian state media. The pan-Arab news channel Al Arabiya said Makdissi had left Beirut and was on his way to London, where he was expected to remain.

DAMASCUS BATTLES

The army has been striking back and appears to have focused most of its energy on Damascus, where rebels have been planning to push into the capital from the surrounding suburbs.

The military has been trying to seal off the capital, using heavy bombardment and air raids to try to drive rebels back. Over 56 people were killed ar ound Damascus al one on Sunday, with 200 dead across the country.

The city itself has not been free of unrest. Rebel-held southern districts have been bombarded heavily, activists say. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported fierce clashes around the Tishreen military hospital in the northern Barzeh district and a car bomb in the southern area of Tadamon.

Neither side appears to have the upper hand in the fighting around Damascus. A previous attempt by rebels last July to hold ground in the city was crushed, but the fighters fell back into the suburbs and nearby countryside.

Clashes and tensions also remain high around Damascus International Airport and along the airport highway, which has become an on-and-off battleground that forced foreign airlines to suspend flights to Damascus since Thursday evening.

EgyptAir, which attempted resume flights on Monday after a three-day halt, had to call back a plane headed to Damascus due to the “bad security situation” around the airport, an official from the airline said.

The conflict has grown increasingly bloody in recent months, particularly as rebels began to contest Assad’s power around the capital as well as in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. More than 40,000 people have died in the conflict, with hundreds more killed each week.

The United Nations said on Monday it was withdrawing “all non-essential international staff” from Syria because of deteriorating security, and was restricting remaining staff to Damascus. It said more armoured vehicles were needed following attacks on humanitarian aid convoys sometimes caught in the crossfire.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS

Rebels have begun to advance more quickly after months of slow sieges to cut off army routes and supplies. In the past few weeks, they seized several military bases, and they are now using anti-aircraft weapons to attack the military helicopters and fighter jets that bombarded their positions with impunity until now.

Media reports citing European and U.S. officials said Syria’s chemical weapons had been moved and could be prepared for use in response - long a fear raised by the opposition.

Syria said on Monday it would not use chemical weapons against its own people after the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that Washington would take action against any such escalation.

“Syria has stressed repeatedly that it will not use these types of weapons, if they were available, under any circumstances against its people,” the foreign ministry said. (Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)

#Syria’s YouTube ‘war’ could win the war

28/10/12

Another failed ceasefire in Syria once again

demands new ways to end the violence. Perhaps

the truth-telling tactics of the opposition in

YouTube videos can help hollow out the lies of

the Assad regime so that his remaining support

collapses.

Antigovernment Syrian media activists set up an Internet satellite connection to upload photos and video of the destruction by government shelling and bombardment of areas controlled by the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Aleppo, Syria, on October 22. Scott Peterson/The Christian Science Monitor/Getty Images


Another failed United Nations-brokered truce in Syria over the weekend should now force the outside world to again ask: What can stop the violence?

More than 30,000 people have been killed in a conflict sparked 19 months ago when the military arrested 15 teenagers writing graffiti – “The people want the downfall of the regime” – that revealed an unspoken truth. Since then, peaceful protests have largely given way to a civil war that’s also spilling over Syria’s borders. Russia and the United States can’t agree on what to do, so little is done from the outside.

That leaves either more violence to resolve the conflict or something else. What might that something else be?

Perhaps it is the parallel war being waged by the opposition on YouTube to convince the remaining Syrians who support Bashar el-Assad that the regime now survives only on a thin tissue of lies.

OPINION: What world can give Syria

One of the more popular chants during demonstrations has been “Syrian media is a liar!” To challenge the state’s censorship and its massive propaganda machine, the opposition has smartly used the Internet, relying on satellite connections to upload videos on YouTube. Many Syrians rely heavily on their satellite dishes to watch these daily depictions of what the regime actually does.

The effect is powerful. A string of myths has been knocked down, starting with Mr. Assad’s superficial attempt at political reform last year. Also gone is the regime’s pretense of widespread support in the Arab and Muslim world.

The videos have shattered Assad’s claim that he represents all of Syria’s diverse people by showing how much he now relies on support from his minority Alawite community. The current videos are countering the regime’s claim that the pro-democracy opposition is run by Islamic terrorists.

Assad is losing this war over the truth as more Syrians wake up to the unreality of the regime’s lies. It is forcing him to use state media to build up the Army as a unifying icon rather than himself. TV programs depict soldiers as brave and magnanimous toward the people. Some clips show crowds yelling, “God save the Army!”

Meanwhile, the foot soldiers themselves, who are mainly from the Sunni majority, are ordered not to watch the Internet. And with the opposition able to reveal Army massacres of innocent women and children, as well as whole villages, the military itself is losing credibility.

The Internet’s ability to democratize information could be the way to bring political democracy to Syria. Its power resides in allowing the masses to sift fact from fiction, which also helps lift their fears. Syrians can make better choices to live the truth of their broader community. The old lies spun by Assad are seen as powerless.

OPINION: NATO must offer Turkey support in Syria crisis

Many ruthless regimes have collapsed without a shot when the truth pours into a country. East Germans, for example, rose up against their communist rulers after years of being able to watch West German television beamed across the border. During a 1986 revolt in the Philippines, a Christian radio station countered the regime’s lies about the extent of its popular support.

Outside Syria, the United States and other nations are providing communication technology and training to help the opposition spread the videos. With few foreign journalists in Syria, the rest of the world also relies on these visual reports.

The more that Assad tries new ways to claim that he has staying power, the easier it becomes for the opposition to win the YouTube war. With enough massive noncooperation from Syrians, the regime will be cornered, perhaps creating more violence for a while, but eventually it will collapse.

Democracy itself is humanity’s best means of bringing out truths to run society. In Syria, hollowing out the lies is the first step toward creating new representations of truth. With that victory, the YouTube revolution can lead to democratic representation for all Syrians.

Is the #Syrian Eid Ceasefire Doomed? by Mike Giglio

25/10/12

The Syrian government has promised an end to

the carnage for Friday’s holiday—but rebels say

Assad’s regime will never keep its word. Mike

Giglio reports on the shaky peace plans.

When Lakhdar Brahimi, the international envoy charged with the difficult task of negotiating an end to the bloody conflict in Syria, announced a brief holiday ceasefire yesterday, even the prospect of that small step toward peace was met with widespread doubt.

Rebel fighters fire from the rooftop of house against Syrian government forces in the Bab el-Adid district in Aleppo on Oct. 23, 2012. (Fabio Bucciarelli / AFP / Getty Images)

‪On the heels of a trip to Damascus, Brahimi said Wednesday that the Syrian government had agreed to a four-day respite from the violence for the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, which starts Friday—a plan, Brahimi said, that most armed opposition groups had agreed to “on principle.”‬

‪But the international press quickly filled with accounts from senior rebels predicting that even if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad agreed to a ceasefire, he would never keep his word. As Mustafa Sheikh, the general who heads the military council for the rebel Free Syrian Army, told The Daily Beast: “The regime is lying. They do this all the time. They’ll start bombing innocent people, the rebels will retaliate, and then they’ll say: ‘See—the rebels don’t keep their promises.’”‬

Both sides have been here before. In April, Brahimi’s predecessor—former United Nations secretary-general Kofi Annan—had brokered a tentative ceasefire with promises from Assad to pull his military back from the country’s urban areas. But shortly after the ceasefire officially began, the government assaults on the opposition resumed, and Annan later resigned his post in frustration.

Now, facing the task of trying to stem a conflict that seems to grow more vicious by the day, Annan’s replacement is aiming to start small, using a holiday break in the fighting as a chance to build trust for future talks.

As Wednesday wore on, however, even that modest plan seemed to be falling apart. Aside from the rebel concerns, the Syrian government itself appeared to be walking back from Brahimi’s announcement. The spokesman for Syria’s foreign ministry said the idea of a ceasefire was still “being studied” by the military and that the government would come to a decision on Thursday—a notable departure from Brahimi’s assurance that the regime had already agreed to a ceasefire. Then, in what some analysts saw as a worrisome omen for the efforts, Brahimi’s spokesman reportedly resigned. “It’s a bad sign when the flak who is supposed to be selling the ceasefire quits before the ceasefire even takes hold,” says Michael Weiss, the research director of the Henry Jackson Society, a foreign policy think tank in London.

‪Inside Syria, the non-warring parties seemed to have long ago decided that no international efforts could save them, either in the form of intervention, or with a brokered peace deal. “We don’t trust that anything will come from the outside world,” says one leading democracy activist in Damascus. “We just need to be able to cope and survive on our own.”‬

“The government can afford to do this for a very short period just to gain some political points.”

Aside from the distrust between the two sides, some analysts say that the intensity of the fight may mean that both the rebels and the government will be reluctant to relent, even for a matter of days. In a brutal war, in which more than 30,000 people have died, according to activist groups, both the government and rebel forces may feel like they have no room to let up. 

“Both sides feel like they have a lot to gain by engaging in unrelenting force,” says Shashank Joshi, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute in London. 

So far, the regime’s strategy has relied heavily on pounding suspected rebel positions with aerial bombs and long-range shells, in order to keep the opposition from consolidating its gains in cities like Aleppo, once considered a government stronghold but now the scene of fierce fighting. Both rebel and government forces are encamped in the city in a chaotic patchwork of control. Joshi points out that it’s unlikely the government would be willing to let up their assault for long.

“I think the government can afford to do this for a very short period just to gain some political points,” he says. “But I don’t think they can sustain that for longer than a couple of days. They simply have too much to lose. They would be ceding too much ground to the rebels.”

For their part, Joshi adds, the rebels have also been keen to apply constant pressure on the government—challenging the military’s positions and cutting off supply routes. They, too, might see little benefit to stopping their offensive.

‪Many rebels seem to feel that momentum is on their side. As one opposition spokesman told journalist Zaid Benjamin today in an interview translated by the Guardian, “if the truce happens, it won’t mean lifting the siege on areas where the regime’s forces are surrounded, or risking the lives of the Syrian people—and we won’t allow the regime to catch its breath and commit more massacres after the truce.”

Some analysts, in fact, think the battered Syrian forces might stand to gain from a short break in the fighting, however unlikely it is to occur. Assad’s troops could reinforce key positions—for example, in places such as the province of Idlib—that are in danger of falling to the rebels, says Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, D.C. “It gives the military a margin to regroup and resupply, then collapse the ceasefire and go back at it from a position of strength,” he says. 

Badran adds that the irregular militias loyal to the government—known as shabiha—could still inflict damage on rebel areas during any official break in the fighting.

Some say Assad has already benefited from the mere talk of a ceasefire, even if the peace never comes to pass. “Every time something like this is agreed to, he knows that the story ceases to be the bombardment of Aleppo, the humanitarian catastrophe. Suddenly you hear the word ‘ceasefire,’ or ‘truce,’ or ‘lull in violence,’ and those become the buzzwords,” says Weiss of the Henry Jackson Society. “It’s all about buying time.”‬

#Syria conflict: doubts over Eid ceasefire

25/10/12

Matthew Weaver and Brian Whitaker
guardian.co.uk,

International envoy Lakhdar Brahimi met Syrian president Bashar al-Assad on Sunday as part of his attempts to broker an ceasefire during the Eid al-Adha holiday. Photograph: Ay-collection/SIPA/Rex Feature

Summary

Here’s a summary of the latest developments:

Syria

UN war crimes investigators have asked to meet president Assad to seek access to Syria. Syrian foreign ministry has written to the UN agencies calling on them to “expose the crimes of the armed terrorist groups, condemn them and hold these groups to account”.

• The Syria’s government is due to announce whether it plans to observe a four-day ceasfire over Eid al-Adha proposed by the international envoy Lakhdar Brahimi. The Assad government has indicated that it will back the initiative, but rebel leaders said they don’t trust the regime to comply. The UN security council urged both sides to back the idea, and added that here was a particular onus on the government “as the stronger party” to respond positively.

• The US has expressed its doubts about the prospects for even a temporary truce. Susan Rice US ambassador to the UN, tweeted: “Many are duly sceptical about prospects for even a temporary ceasefire, given Assad’s record of broken promises.” Britain’s ambassador to the UN, Mark Lyall Grant, noted that the Syrian government had yet to confirm whether it would back the ceasefire a day before it was due to start. 

Continued fighting has been reported in Damascus and Aleppo ahead of the proposed start of the ceasefire. Assad’s forces have fired tank and rocket barrages at a Damascus suburb killing five people, Reuters reports citing activists said.

• The US has denied Russian claims that it is supplying Stinger missiles to Syrian rebels. Russia’s top military officer, Nikolai Makarov, said Russia’s military had learned that rebel forces “have portable missile launchers of various states, including American-made Stingers.” US Defence secretary Leon Panetta told reporters at the Pentagon that “I certainly don’t know of us providing any such missiles in that area.”

UN Investigators seek access to #Syria

25/10/12

United Nations war crimes investigators said on Thursday they had asked to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to seek access for their team, which has been shut out of the country since being set up a year ago.

The international inquiry, led by Brazilian expert Paulo Pinheiro, has been gathering evidence and testimony on atrocities committed by Syrian government forces and armed rebels in the 19-month-old conflict.

“We decided to send a letter to President al-Assad calling for a meeting … it would be very important that he could receive us,” Pinheiro told reporters in Geneva.

“We intend to go there without conditions to meet President Assad to discuss access of our commission to Syria,” added Pinheiro, who went to Damascus in June in his personal capacity for talks with senior Syrian officials.

In their latest report in August, the investigators said that Syrian government forces and allied militia had committed war crimes including murder and torture of civilians in what appeared to be a state-directed policy.

The team has interviewed more than 1,100 victims, refugees and defectors. But they have not had contact with wounded soldiers or families of state forces killed by rebels, due to lack of access to Syria.

Carla del Ponte, a former U.N. war crimes prosecutor, has joined the inquiry. Her eight years at the Hague-based International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia were dominated by the pursuit and trial of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, who died in 2006 before sentencing.

Del Ponte, asked about parallels with past investigations, said: “The similarity is of course we are handling the same crimes, crimes against humanity and war crimes for sure.”

She added: “My main task will be to continue the inquiry in the direction of determining the high-ranking political and military authorities responsible for these crimes.”

Secret list

Del Ponte praised the panel’s work in documenting violations across Syria as providing a “big picture of the crime base” needed to pursue responsibility up the chain of command.

The investigators have drawn up a secret list of Syrian individuals and units suspected of committing crimes which they say could pave the way for future criminal prosecution.

“We are not a tribunal, we are not a criminal prosecution body. What we do is to build evidence for future judicial initiatives in terms of making accountable those responsible for these violations,” Pinheiro said on Thursday.

The list is locked in a safe in the office of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, who has repeatedly called for the Security Council to refer the conflict in Syria to the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The list could be handed over one day to a competent judicial body capable of respecting confidentiality and protecting witnesses, but that would require a decision by the Security Council, Pinheiro said.

The inquiry has received allegations about the use of cluster bombs, but had no concrete information, Pinheiro said.

Karen Abuzayd, an American commissioner on the team, told Reuters: “Cluster bombs is on our agenda…We have a mandate to look into massacres and we are looking at Daraya.”

She was referring to a town southwest of Damascus where some 320 bodies, including women and children, were found in late August in houses and basements, according to activists who said most had been killed “execution-style” by troops in house-to-house raids.

25/10/12

A United Nations peace negotiator claims the fighting in Syria will stop for an upcoming religious holiday. But as Monica Villamizar reports, Syrian officials say they have not agreed to a ceasefire.

Armenian plane en route to #Syria searched in Turkey

15/10/12


(Reuters) - Turkey ordered an Armenian plane flying to the Syrian city of Aleppo to land and searched its cargo on Monday, in the latest move to prevent its airspace being used to supply the Syrian military.

The plane was allowed to continue on its way after the search in the eastern Turkish city of Erzurum confirmed it was carrying humanitarian aid as stated by Armenian officials, a Turkish deputy prime minister said.

Last Wednesday Turkey forced down a Syrian airliner that had come from Moscow, and said it had found Russian munitions on board destined for Syria’s armed forces.

NATO-member Turkey has become increasingly assertive in challenging Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the face of growing tensions along the border and banned all Syrian aircraft from its airspace in the wake of that incident.

“The plane was ordered to land and it was inspected. It was clear that the declaration was correct and the plane was given permission to take off,” Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc told reporters.

A Foreign Ministry spokesman said Turkey had the sovereign right under the Chicago convention on civil aviation to require planes crossing its airspace to make a “technical landing” but did not say whether this right would be exercised in future.

Armenia confirmed it had known the plane would be searched.

“The landing of the airplane in Turkey was planned and it was carried out according to a previously reached agreement. The airplane is delivering humanitarian aid to Syria,” Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesman Tigran Balayan said.

Last week’s decision to force down and search the Syrian plane travelling from Russia infuriated Moscow and Damascus.

Russia has said there were no weapons on the plane and that it was carrying a legal cargo of radar equipment. But Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later said the incident would not hurt the countries’ “solid” relations.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said at the weekend that Turkish airspace had been closed to Syrian planes. Syria has also banned Turkish planes from flying over its territory.

The confrontation between Turkey and Syria has escalated in the last two weeks because of cross-border shelling, with Ankara retaliating after five Turkish civilians were killed when a Syrian shell hit a Turkish border town.

The bloodshed inside Syria has worsened markedly in the past two months although neither government nor rebels have been able to gain a decisive advantage.

The increased conflict has fuelled further refugee flows across Syria’s borders, with many fleeing to Turkey.

The Turkish disaster management agency (AFAD) said on Monday there were now 100,363 Syrians at more than a dozen camps.

Turkey has said it will struggle to accommodate more than 100,000 and has urged the United Nations to build refugee camps in a safe zone within Syria’s borders.

(Additional reporting by Hasmik Mkrtchyan in Yerevan; Writing by Daren Butler; Editing by Kevin Liffey

Brahimi to visit Iraq over #Syria crisis


14/10/12
FILE - (L-R) German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (R) talks with International peace envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi on October 13, 2012 at the Hilton Hotel in Istanbul. (AFP PHOTO/BULENT KILIC)

TEHRAN: International peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi will visit key Syrian ally Iran on Sunday a day before heading for Iraq, the state television channel’s website reported on Saturday.

The United Nations and Arab League peace envoy is currently on a regional tour aimed at finding a solution to the conflict in Syria after Damascus rejected a UN call to implement a unilateral ceasefire.

“During his visit, Lakhdar Brahimi will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi to discuss the situation in Syria,” the channel quoted a foreign ministry statement as saying.

Iran, the main backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, seeks a political solution to the conflict and supports the envoy’s mediation efforts.

In Baghdad on Monday, Brahimi will meet Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki over the 19-month uprising, Maliki’s spokesman said on Saturday.

“Iraq has said many times that it supports the efforts of Lakhdar Brahimi to find a solution, and we will work to make this mission successful to end the human tragedy of the Syrian people,” Ali Mussawi said.

He said he had no further details on the veteran troubleshooter’s schedule while in Iraq.

Brahimi first visited the Middle East in mid-September and met Assad in Damascus but earned no promise of concessions from him.

Brahimi visited Saudi Arabia on Wednesday and was in Turkey on Saturday.

In an interview with AFP on Tuesday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said Brahimi would return soon to Damascus to try again to meet Assad.

Ban suggested Brahimi could go to the Syrian capital next week if his meetings in the region this week were productive.

 
#Syria and Turkey in tit-for-tat flight bans, Sunday summary!

14/10/12


Turkish soldiers monitor the border area between Turkey and Syria at a Turkish military base near the village of Hacipasa in Hatay province, southern Turkey on Sunday. Photograph: Osman Orsal/Reuters

Summary

Welcome, here’s a roundup of the latest developments:

Syria

Syria has banned Turkish planes from its airspace amid escalating tension between the two countries. Turkey banned Syrian planes from its airspace after grounding a Syrian passenger jet from Moscow that it said was carrying military equipment. On Friday Turkey scrambled two fighter jets after a Syrian military helicopter bombed the Syrian border town of Azmarin.

The new peace envoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, is drawing up plans for a 3,000-strong peacekeeping force that could involve European troops in policing a future truce, according to the Sunday Telegraph. It claims the troops would be drawn from countries that currently contribute to Unifil, the mission set up to police Israel’s borders with Lebanon. These include Ireland, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, but not Britain and the US. 

Rebels near Aleppo claim to have shot down a Syrian jet. Video from activists purported to show the wreckage of the plane, and rebels also showed footage of what they claimed was the body of the dead pilot. On Friday rebels claimed to have seized control of the al-Taaneh airbase east of Aleppo, the BBC reported. 

The Syrian air force has used widely banned cluster bombs in the last few days, according to new evidence highlighted by Human Rights Watch. Many of the strikes were near a strategically important road through Maarat al-Numan – which rebels claimed to have seized last week. Human Rights Watch cites a list of videos showing cluster munition remants compiled by the blogger Eliot Higgins, better known as Brown Moses, a frequent commenter on this blog. Residents from Taftanaz and Tamane confirmed in interviews with Human Rights Watch that helicopters dropped cluster munitions on or near their towns on 9 October. 

The Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has criticised the UN security council for failing to reach an agreement on how to respond to the bloody conflict in Syria. He also called for reform of the council, which he described as an unequal and unfair system that failed to reflect the will of most countries.

• Iran’s foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, has visited Qatar to discuss the fate of 48 Iranians kidnapped by rebels in Syria, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. Iran has called on Turkey and Qatar to use their links with rebel groups to help secure their freedom. Last weekend the al-Baraa brigade, part of the main rebel group, the Free Syrian Army, said it would start killing the Iranians within 48 hours unless Assad freed Syrian opposition detainees and stopped shelling civilian areas.

Syrian refugees who made it out of the country are the lucky ones compared to the desperate plight of those displaced by the violence still inside the country, according to the Los Angles Times. 

For the uprooted still in Syria, there is little or no security, and scant help. Many depend on the charity of relatives or friendly families, or on limited help from aid organizations and the government.

Multitudes of bedraggled and desperate Syrians have been wandering for months, travelling from place to place in search of shelter, often under the threat of artillery shelling and aerial bombardment.

Thousands have become stuck along the Syrian-Turkish border in recent weeks as Turkey has restricting entries until the government can build more camps, creating a growing human logjam.

Turkey Moves Tanks to Hilltops Overlooking #Syria

13/10/12

Turkey’s government threatened to respond to any further attacks by Syrian forces, after shelling across the frontier last week killed five Turkish citizens.

“Turkey will retaliate if Syria violates its border again,” Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said at a news conference today in Istanbul. “We will do what’s necessary. We hope Syria won’t repeat its previous violation of the border.”

Turkey yesterday deployed tanks and missile-defense systems on hilltops overlooking Syria, the state-run Anatolia news agency said, hours after Turkish jet fighters were scrambled to confront a Syrian helicopter that came close to the border. Turkey has threatened to target Syrian forces if they pose a security risk, following the downing of a Turkish fighter jet by Syria in June.

Turkey’s ties with Syria, once an ally, dramatically deteriorated over Turkish backing for Syrian rebels fighting forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad. Turkey fired artillery in response to Syrian shelling that killed the five people in the Turkish border town of Akcakale on Oct. 3.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which Turkey is a member, on Oct. 9 called the attack on Akcakale “a flagrant breach of international law,” and assured the Turkish government of the alliance’s military support if it’s attacked.

Davutoglu spoke after holding talks with Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations and Arab League special envoy to Syria, and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle in Istanbul. He didn’t comment on the discussions.

Rebels Advance

Rebel forces in Syria today captured the village of Azmarin in the province of Idlib, near the Turkish border, Anatolia reported. Syrian forces were also attacking the rebel-held village of Derkush in Idlib with tanks and ground forces, the state-run Turkish news agency said.

Turkey shelters 99,500 refugees in camps along the border, and another 14,000 Syrians are waiting to cross into the country, according to Turkey’s Foreign Ministry.

Syrian security forces killed 42 civilians today, the U.K.- based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in an e-mailed statement. At least 33 soldiers also died in fighting across the country, it said. Rebels lost three fighters when they attacked a military convoy in Idlib province, the Observatory said on its Facebook page.

Syrian forces “eliminated a large number of terrorists” in fighting in the northwestern commercial hub of Aleppo, the government-run Syrian Arab News Agency reported. The army also fought rebels who “cut off roads” in Idlib, killing and injuring some of them, the news service said.

Syrian rebels in Aleppo shot down a government MIG jet, the rebels’ Free Syrian Army said on its Facebook page. Footage was posted by rebels showing the wreckage of the aircraft on flames and armed men surrounding it and shouting God is great.

The Observatory for Human Rights in Syria confirmed the rebels’ claim and said the jet had bombed the town of Khan al- Asal in the suburbs of Aleppo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sibel Akbay in Istanbul at sakbay@bloomberg.net